Reply #7: Yes -- we should at least wait a week before making predictions

[liberalpragmatist]

This is WAY too premature, even to see how this will affect the nomination contest. If it has an effect anywhere, that's where it'll be, NOT in the general. The election is a yr. away and a pattern has already emerged. W's support will climb (probably to 60% this time) then fall back over the next few weeks. Also note that each spike is less than the last and each spike declines more quickly. The insurgency will not end (though I hope it will even if politically it would be disastrous for us) and Iraq will still be a mess. Plus, a huge # of people just don't trust him anymore.

Besides, much better this happens now, a yr. before the race than a few days before election day. (Although Osama's still at large - hopefully he'll be caught soon or only after the election).