Reply #8: I assume you assumed that some people would just normally

[Igel]

die during that period. Population in Texas of 22.5 million, give or take, 150k die per year (2004 numbers), 2.5 million evacuated. 19 is a surprisingly low number.

The only conclusion is that the sickest and most likely to die didn't evacuate (at least in a risky manner--or not at all, if in a voluntary evacuation area). I'd have expected more people dying in their cars. But then again, it also shut down the freeway system (except for a slow-mo evacuation), and reduced the number of traffic fatalities for a few days.

You can't compare a known mortality for a period against 0 deaths for a population; you have to compare it against the best estimate for expected deaths for that population. Just as you can't really compare the death toll from hurricanes where the fatalities would come largely from wind against those where the fatalities would result largely from flooding: they're not comparable risks.

In any event, I still commend Perry and White (and the Galveston mayor) for their evacuation orders, even if a few assumptions were flawed. The Matagordo Cty. order was a bit iffier, and Corpus Christi order was even more iffy. But until a few hours before landfall, I was sitting here expecting to be thwacked by Rita.

BTW, the bus that burned, illing 23, was the result of the same kind of voluntary evacuation you say Nagin had for NOLA.