Reply #6: Well heres the tricky part.

[K-W]

The shia will want to control the government, they probably have more than 50% of the vote. But the Kurds and Sunnis will not tolerate a Shia controlled government, especially the Kurds who have supported the US so much. It was easy to string both the shia's and kurds along up till now, but now the US has to find a way to get them in a government together and get the sunnis involved because if they leave any group out, they will be facing a magnified resistance and possible civil war.

Add to this the fact that the longer the US stays the less legitimicy they and the government have.

Its something of a powder keg.