Reply #26: I presume this from the outset:

[Minstrel Boy]

that the United States will not leave Iraq by choice, and may not withdraw before the United States itself ceases to be.

Having the hedge of Iraq's oil and an army permanently garrisoned in the heart of the Middle East is regarded as a matter of utmost national security, and it will become even more so.

And given that, I expect increasing provocations from Sharon, who is emboldened by the fall of Saddam and the presence of US troops nearby. He's received promises that Iraq is just the beginning. He wants Syria knocked off next, and then Iran. I anticipate Arafat's assassination, strikes against Hamas leadership in Damascus, and a joint Israeli-US action against Syria in the Fall justified by Syria's "harbouring terrorists."

When Bush moves against Syria, that's when the war really starts. And Iran is, I believe, Russia's line in the sand. If the United States takes the war to Iran, Russia will take the war to the United States.

Colour me cautiously pessimistic about humanity's chances.