How Do You Think This Dean Statement Will Play in the Southland??

[Starpass]

I’m particularly interested in hearing from Southerners. Caught the segment on Newsnight regarding Howard Dean last night. Dean and the Dem presidential race was discussed by Brown with the young man (face familiar--name escapes me) of the The Republic; and the analysis was, I thought, very good. At the end, as they discussed the primaries in the South, was when they brought up a statement by Dean. First let me run the analysis by you because it’s quite interesting regarding Dean and Kerry.

Young man said that right now the Kerry campaign is in some trouble and his staff knows it (i.e., he desperately needs to get his face and words all over the news like Dean). He said that the “base” for both men are basically the same within the Dem party---the “educated” (i.e., Gephardt for example has the blue collar labor unions sewed up, etc.). He said Kerry is in danger of losing Iowa and being bumped off in NH and that that could literally be the end of his presidential bid because from there the primaries swing to the South.

If Kerry came into the South as a winner he has momentum, would win some and lose some in the South; but the momentum would continue. If he came into the South as a loser, it’s no place for him to “start” whipping up momentum. Now, as Dean stormed into the South, he said that he, of course, will be met with the “Dean-Busters” in full force. He said the Southerners like Edwards because he’s one of them and even Holy Joe because of his religiosity (kinda disagree there--they also don’t like non-Christians). This, of course, for either Kerry or Dean is going to be a hard crowd to please. Then they talked about Dean’s “statement”.

They both knew about the statement---have no idea when or where he said it. Apparently Dean’s approach to the South is: ‘You have elected all of these republicans for 30 years---now take a look at your states. Look at your still failing educational systems, your poverty, blah, blah, blah.’ You get the picture. Howard is going right in their faces and not cuddling up to and flattering the Southerners but is in essence telling them to face facts and think. Personally, I love it---however, Howard might want to campaign in full body armor and behind bullet-proof glass!!! It’s about time it was said. It’s about time these repuke strongholds were challenged to think. Even if Kerry eventually ends up doing well up North, of course, Dean will still campaign in the South, and I think it would be great to have him start sowing the “seeds” in their minds. Anyway---a) what do you think? and b) if you think there would be real backlash, do you think it would be a backlash just at Howard or at the entire party??? This campaign should be reaaaaal interesting........