Reply #48: My response

[Composed Thinker]

"I don't think any of the marginal candidates on the right and left stand a chance. People are expecting that if five or six people run the vote will split equally. It won't."

Well, assuming that people want him out of office and want him to be replaced, I think a Democrat would win. While you are right that 5 or 6 people won't split the vote equally, there is a strong possibility that these people could damage the main candidate(s). Think about it: if the more minor candidates each get 1-3%, that adds up to a few percentage points. If 4 candidates each get 2%, that's 8%. With elections being so tight, that's enough to swing the election to the Democrats.

Of course, that depends on what the voters decide.