Reply #1: The Spain situation was complicated

[jpgray]

First of all, there was a scant 4% difference in the polls between the current (at the time) leadership (Popular Party) and the Socialist Party. Next, the terror attack, and the government attempted to blame it on the basques. Then Muslim literature, etc. is found at the scene. Next, the elections, where the Socialists win by a scant 3%. So forgetting the MoE, which could put it far closer, there was a 7% shift in the polls, and whether it was from regular old undecideds, the terror attack itself, or the government's reaction cannot be accurately determined.

(If I messed up anywhere, someone come and fix it. :))