Reply #30: Exactly.

[tedoll78]

That third list is crucial.

If Dean is the nominee - and it looks very possible - he NEEDS Graham. Graham, I'd guess, has a 90% chance of delivering Florida. He won re-election with over 65% of the vote, winning in all but one of Florida's 67 counties. The foreign policy/intelligence weight added to the ticket, combined with the Nascar Dad target marketing that Graham is pursuing is priceless.

Also concern ourselves with Michigan and Pennsylvania. Two big things in these states contribute to the Dems' GOTV operation: unions and popular sitting Democrat governors. With Dean taking-away the gun issue and with jobs being shed like long dog fur in summer, these are ours to lose.

Oregon will probably be ours. To a large degree, it depends on what the Greens do. If Nader is their nominee, it moves from 'leaning Dem' to tossup. Tread carefully, Dr!

Wisconsin: Feingold is up for re-election - this should help turnout there. Again, the Green factor hits. Stress jobs and environment.

New Mexico is simple: highlight Bill Richardson at the convention and then campaign with him throughout the state. Richardson was elected as governor here with about 65% of the vote and is still very popular; he can deliver.

Arkansas: campaign with Clinton. Get a kick-ass voting registration drive going here, and get it going EARLY. Go door-to-door in Dem strongholds (they're all in urban areas, so it's easier for Dems to go door-to-door than it is for the GOP to do so in their own strongholds). Bring voter registration forms and absentee ballots. Turnout.

Ohio: What about Jerry Springer? Gore lost by 4%, Nader got 2%, and Gore gave-up on the state three weeks before the election. Shame on him! 20 electoral votes! Seriously, Springer could bring nontraditional voters (read: young) to the polls. Young people vote about 3-2 in favor of the Democrat. Again, it's the economy, stoopid!

Another strategy in rural areas (GOP strongholds): billboards. Let's suppress the GOP's turnout. Highlight how non-military spending has gone up by over 20% under Bush - more than all of Clinton's years. Highlight how Bush praised the affirmative action ruling of the Supreme Court - that'll piss-off some rednecks! Highlight how Bush named openly gay ambassadors to foreign countries, even recognizing their partners. If we can cut into 2 or 3% of his base and get them to think "Why bother voting?" our chances jump.

Finally, we need an INFOMERCIAL. This tool worked wonders for Perot's campaign in 1992. Half an hour to clearly and slickly convince voters that Dr Dean is the man for the job. No pundits dissecting what he's said, no adulteration of the message - we just tell them what we're for and how our plan is going to work. This shows that we do have a clear vision for America, and we can keep the tone of the message pleasant. Since the GOP's convention is last, the Chimp will have the last word - very advantageous. We could negate this by airing an infomercial on Monday night, November 1, 2004. As much as 10% of the voting population could be undecided at that point, and this could give them a nudge into our corner.
An infomercial - YES.

Dr Dean can win this thing.