Reply #18: the zebra states

[foo_bar]

The best-case natural Dean constituency is:

+ VT, MA, ME, NH, CT, DE, RI, NY, NJ, MD, CA, OR, WA, (DC)
? HI, IA, MN, WI, WV, NM

If he carries the + column he has 180 electoral votes. With the leaning states he's up to 220. The fulcrum of power is then the states with a large black swing vote namely PA, FL, MI, IL, of which he'd have to win three. Since Dr. "It takes a white leader" Dean makes Dukakis look like a homeboy, I'm not very optimistic about his chances.