Iran could spring a nasty surprise

[CHIMO]

Barack Obama expressed confidence last week that Israel would not attack Iran without first consulting him. "It is unacceptable for Iran to possess nuclear weapons and we are going to do everything we can to prevent that happening," Obama told Israel's Channel 2 television. "I think the relationship between the US and Israel is sufficiently strong that neither of us try to surprise each other."

But Obama left a lot unsaid. He did not say he would oppose or try to block future Israeli air strikes on Iran's nuclear plants – only that he expected to hear about them in advance. And he did not say Washington would refuse to assist or participate, directly or indirectly, in any such attack. The US preferred a diplomatic solution, he said. But then came the familiar mantra: "I assure you I have not taken options off the table."

Conversely, nothing Obama said can remove the possibility that dangerous surprises may be in store, for both Israel and the US, emanating from Iran. The depth and breadth of the confrontation with Tehran on numerous fronts – political, commercial, geographical and physical – is growing exponentially. The situation grows less predictable, and thus more volatile, by the day. It would not take much to spark a full-blown crisis, most probably unplanned.

Like an angry, defiant boxer who is bloodied but unbeaten, the Iranian regime is starting to hit out in all directions. After the UN, US and EU imposed additional punitive sanctions, a scornful President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Iran's nuclear programme would not be shift one inch. "Those resolutions are only paper. What's going to shape our future is our determination."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/jul/14/iran-israel-us-nuclear