Reply #16: I keep thinking about that 14 point lead Dukakis had over Bush in 1988....

[yellowcanine]

I know, not much is the same - every election cycle has its own dynamic but that kind of is the point. This election cycle has its own dynamic - forget past elections, including pronouncements about incumbents being below 50% approval. Remember, Clinton beat Bush convincingly in electoral votes with only 43% of the vote. Weird things happen. Nader could be a factor or not. Iraq could explode or not. There could be a major terrorist strike - or several - or not. Gas prices could continue upward - or drop significantly in time to help Bush out a little. Anyone who uses the word "will", as in Bush will win, Kerry will win, etc. - is just blowing smoke. Right now my gut tells me that Kerry will probably win. But this is May. We are in a fast paced information saturated environment. A week is a long time in this environment, let alone 6 months......