Reply #1: Conflict re-engineering

[occuserpens]

Glad to see that good logic gets shared, I hope that my blog contributes to this re-engineering effort ;- ) A few additional remarks.
-- What we currently see in Iraq is just one stage of the regional revolutionary process. Historically, this suggests that most of the local forces which are now in play will be annihilated in the future purges. In particular, Al-Queda looks like a perfect candidate for this. Their prospects for long-term survival do not look much better than those of the Russian anarchists in the 19c.
-- Neocons look like another sure loser of the Iraqi conflict. By promoting Islamist "constitution", they are just digging their own grave.
-- As for the winners, IMO, making any concrete guesses is pointless at this stage. Khomeinists and their Iraqi allies are very likely to be the ones, but what will happen on the Sunni and Kurdish sides - is hardly predictable.
-- Consequences for Europe do not look good. The problem is, neocons and their European allies promote fight against "islamofascist imperialism" and suppress moderate anti-war movement. This only contributes to the radicalization of euro-Muslims. Recent riots in France are just one indication of this.

1. A Visit From Juan Cole
Cheney administration and the real masterminds of the insurgency are selling the same fraud -- as are our "allies" in Baghdad.
What's more, each party knows that the others know, and they each know that the others know that they know, and so on. The only ones left outside this loop of knowledge are the poor saps doing the chasing, and of course the folks back home. And even they may be beginning to suspect something.
Juan Cole doesn't claim that Zarqawi and his group are complete fictions, although the "Al Qaeda in Iraq" label appears to be a flagrant violation of Bin Ladin's intellectual property rights...
And those Saudi and Algerian and Egyptian jihadists slipping over the border from Syria? They're mostly cannon fodder -- suicide bombers and IED planters, or pack mules for same. They may even think they're working for Zarqawi or those like him, when in fact the Ba'athists are pulling the strings.
2. Juan Cole. Blogging at billmon's
3. My ME blog