Reply #140: Bush Post-Convention Lead Slips to Tie With Kerry (Update1)

[struggle4progress]

Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush is in a statistical tie in three of four national polls with Democratic nominee John Kerry, who trailed by as much as 11 percentage points after the Republican National Convention. Bush leads in the fourth survey, a USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll, by 13 points.

Bush had 47 percent to Kerry's 46 percent in a Sept. 11-14 Pew Research Center poll. A Sept. 9-13 Harris Interactive poll showed Kerry with 48 percent to 47 percent for Bush. An Investor's Business Daily poll conducted Sept. 7-12 found them even with 46 percent support each. And Gallup gave Bush a lead of 55 percent to 42 percent in its survey from Sept. 13-15.

``The bounce is over,'' John Zogby, president of polling company Zogby International, said in an interview. ``This is not an 11 point race. It never was an 11 point race. I doubt it will ever be an 11-point race.''

Kerry eroded Bush's gains after the Republican National Convention by focusing on the lack of funds for job training and health-care initiatives because of the cost of the ``wrong war'' Bush is fighting in Iraq. The Republican convention, which focused on national security, gave Bush a lead of between six percentage points and 11 points in Time and Newsweek magazine polls after it ended on Sept. 2. <snip>

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aKqs4qwWUpGU&refer=us


3 polls show a White House race in flux
Rick Klein/The Boston Globe

BLAIN, Minnesota Three national polls indicate that the race for the White House is in flux after President George W. Bush's post-convention bounce.

Two of the polls, by the Pew Research Center and by Harris Interactive, show the race as a dead heat. The third, by the Gallup Organization, gives Bush a substantial lead over his challenger, Senator John Kerry.

The Pew poll, conducted from Sept. 11 to 14, and the Harris poll, taken from Sept. 9 to 13, show the race well within the margin of sampling error among registered voters and among likely voters. All this suggests that the presidential race is running even again, despite the double-digit lead Bush opened up after the Republican National Convention ended on Sept. 2. <snip>

http://www.iht.com/articles/539334.html

New Opinion Polls at Odds Over White House Race
VOA News
17 Sep 2004, 15:29 UTC

Two new opinion surveys in the United States paint very different pictures of the presidential race. <snip>

http://www.voanews.com/article.cfm?objectID=4E632DF1-3884-458E-AC0D85CC9B161C5E&title=New%20Opinion%20Polls%20at%20Odds%20Over%20White%20House%20Race&catOID=45C9C78F-88AD-11D4-A57200A0CC5EE46C&categoryname=USA

Polls give confusing picture in U.S. race
Fri 17 September, 2004 20:45

<snip> Democratic pollster Tom Kiley said: "There was a legitimate question as to whether the post-convention bounce for Bush was in fact a bounce, a temporary bounce or a longer-term trend. That question has been answered conclusively this week. And the structure of this race (is) what it had been for months. It is a very closely contested contest over what the voters want." <snip>

http://www.reuters.co.uk/newsPackageArticle.jhtml?type=worldNews&storyID=585865§ion=news