Reply #10: 9:43 numbers and some of the early blather

[54anickel]

Dow 10,135.14 -4.64 (-0.05%)
Nasdaq 1,888.01 +4.86 (+0.26%)
S&P 500 1,102.19 +0.80 (+0.07%)
10-yr Bond 4.370% +0.009
30-yr Bond 5.128% +0.005


9:40AM: Stock market starts the day in positive territory, although gains are slim and conviction on the part of buyers is unimpressive... Today's higher start is largely the function of the past three weeks losses - traders have simply been willing to buy on the dip as the market remains range-bound... This morning's earnings reports have been relatively few in number, but most have been better than expected - with the most notable being 3M (MMM 87.84) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY 50.47)... The day's only economic report will come at 10 ET, and will be June Existing Home Sales...
The consensus estimate is set at 6.60 mln...

9:10AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +2.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.5. Futures trade slips off its highs at the end of pre-market trading, but continues to indicate a higher open... The market will get its only economic report of the day, June Existing Home Sales (consensus of 6.60 mln), at 10 ET... A weaker than expected reading could knock the homebuilders down - the group was one of the strongest last week.

8:54AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +3.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.0. Still shaping up for a higher open for the cash market as traders remain willing to buy shares at the bottom of the trading range... At current levels, all of the major indices are showing slight losses for the year.

8:30AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +3.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.0. Futures indications continue to hold onto their gains, suggesting a moderately higher start for the indices...Solid gains in the Asian indices (Hong Kong's Hang Seng +0.9%) and a large drop in the US market over the past couple of weeks have brought more buyers to the action.

8:00AM : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.0. Futures market pointing to a higher open, largely in a bounce off the past three weeks of losses... MMM's better than expected Q2 (June) report has also contributed to the positive bias.

6:13AM : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.5.


From INO:

The September NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight due to light short covering but remains below the 75% retracement level of the May-June rally crossing at 1414.51. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's decline, May's low crossing at 1376.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1428.80 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. The September NASDAQ 100 was up 3.50 pt. at 1401.00 as of 6:40 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The September S&P 500 index was slightly higher overnight due to short covering but remains below broken support marked by the 62% retracement level of the May-June rally crossing at 1104.86. If September extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level crossing at 1095.17 is the next downside target. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near- term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1110.26 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. The September S&P 500 Index was up 0.70 pts. at 1103.50 as of 6:42 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening when the day session begins later this morning.