Reply #90: Remember 1948 ... Give 'Em Hell Harry vs. The Polls

[Iceburg]

Try not to get discouraged ... these polls are highly dubious. And most importantly never forget the 1948 election.

http://history1900s.about.com/cs/trumanharry/a/deweytruman.htm

<snip>
On the morning after the 1948 presidential election, the Chicago Daily Tribune's headline read

"DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN."

That's what the Republicans, the polls, the newspapers, the political writers, and even many Democrats had expected. But in the largest political upset in U.S. history, Harry S. Truman surprised everyone when he, and not Thomas E. Dewey, won the 1948 election for president of the United States.
....

Give 'Em Hell Harry vs. The Polls

The polls, reporters, political writers - they all believed Dewey was going to win by a landslide. On September 9, 1948, Elmo Roper was so confident of a Dewey win that he announced there would be no further Roper Polls on this election. Roper said, "My whole inclination is to predict the election of Thomas E. Dewey by a heavy margin and devote my time and efforts to other things.

Truman was undaunted. He believed that with a lot of hard work, he could get the votes. Though it is usually the contender and not the incumbent that works hard to win the race, Dewey and the Republicans were so confident they were going to win - barring any major faux pas - that they decided to make an extremely low-key campaign.

Truman's campaign was based on getting out to the people. While Dewey was aloof and stuffy, Truman was open, friendly, and seemed one with the people. In order to talk to the people, Truman got in his special Pullman car, the Ferdinand Magellan, and traveled the country. In six weeks, Truman traveled approximately 32,000 miles and gave 355 speeches.3 <p> On this "Whistle-Stop Campaign," Truman would stop at town after town and give a speech, have people ask questions, introduce his family, and shake hands. From his dedication and strong will to fight as an underdog against the Republicans, Harry Truman acquired the slogan, "Give 'em hell, Harry!"

But even with perseverance, hard work, and large crowds, the media still didn't believe Truman had a fighting chance. While President Truman was still on the road campaigning, Newsweek polled 50 key political journalists to determine which candidate they thought would win. Appearing in the October 11 issue, Newsweek stated the results: all 50 believed Dewey would win.

h3]The Election
By election day, the polls showed that Truman had managed to cut Dewey's lead, but all media sources still believed Dewey would win by a landslide.

As the reports filtered in that night, Truman was ahead in the popular votes, but the newscasters still believed Truman didn't have a chance.

By four the next morning, Truman's success seemed undeniable. At 10:14 a.m., Dewey conceded the election to Truman.

Since the election results were a complete shock to the media, the Chicago Daily Tribune got caught with the headline "DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN." The photograph with Truman holding aloft the paper has become one of the most famous newspaper photos of the century.