Reply #17: Distressed property sales have been high for awhile now, but, yes, it is a factor

[Godhumor]

The other issue, and one not well touched on, is that rates are beginning to climb again, so there is pressure coming from that end as well.

Housing is still a mess and will be until distressed properties start dwindling, which will require mortgage stability. The analyst estimate of second half of the year is probably correct, but if we get past 3rd quarter without a change...well, winter is not traditionally a time of lots of house buying.

Other thing to look at is cash purchases. That number as an absolute percentage needs to begin decreasing as well(You want to see a higher mortgage % of total sales as an indicator in trust in the market).