Reply #13: Running the numbers

[KarenRei]

Anyone notice how despite the fact that all of the candidates did absentee ballots before their choices dropped out are losing share as people's votes for current candidates dilute them, Hillary is also decreasing as a percent of the total vote? All of the rise is going to Obama. This suggests to me that absentees were strongly in favor of Hillary. Example:

16% reporting: Obama 33%, Clinton 55%
25% reporting: Obama 36%, Clinton 53%
30% reporting: Obama 37%, Clinton 53%
45% reporting: Obama 38%, Clinton 52%

Doesn't seem that Obama has enough momentum for him to overtake Clinton, though. But I wouldn't be surprised to see the final results be something like 41%-49%. And they should be pretty close in the county delegates, since, as a DailyKos analysis indicated, the 3-delegate and 5-delegate counties are more Obama-heavy, while the 4-delegate counties are more Clinton-heavy, and to get a 1-3 split in a 4-delegate country, you need a very hard to achieve 75% of the vote. In a 3 or 5 delegate county, you only need to get more than 50%.

My call? Clinton gets 198 delegates and Obama 172.