Reply #31: um, you might want to look into your numbers

[northzax]

PdVSA owns or operates 24 refineries. 6 in Venezuela, 8 in the US, 9 in Europe and 1 in the Caribbean. Domestic refining capacity is 550,000 bbls/day from a reported production (most people are skeptical of the numbers) 3.1 million bbls/day (the International Energy Agency says it is closer to 2.6 million bbls/day)

in case you are skeptical about Venezuela's ability to increase domestic refining, a law passed in 2004 (the Hydrocarbons Law) allows foreign companies who build new refineries inside Venezuela to own "up to 100 percent" of the facility and simply pay royalties to the government. Does this sound like a company capable of building new refineries themselves? and do you think anyone will take PdVSA up on that offer now?

If things go on the way they are, Venezuela's oil production in 2012 will be lower than the official numbers today. you can bank on it. Of course, they are already lower than the official numbers. You can listen to the official numbers, or you can look at the actual data, they don't match up. You can listen to one government agency giving reports without auditing or backup data of any sort, or you can listen to the great majority of analysts who don't believe those numbers. Even OPEC doesn't believe them, since Venezuela's OPEC quota is 3m bbls/day, and the government is reporting production of 3.3m bbls/day, in violation of that agreement. So why don't the other OPEC nations care that Venezuela is busting their quota? because they know that it isn't true there are credible reports that PdVSA had to BUY $5b in oil from GAZPROM last year to meet contracts.

in the words of Rafael Ramirez, "PDVSA es roja, rojita de arriba a abajo." we shall see.