Reply #44: That is pretty much it

[Vulture]

The geopolitical calculus is complicated. China definitely does not want the US military on their border, though some days North Korea really does turn into a liability as a client state. North Korea is China's problem to solve and the US treats it that way, but the US has the lever of a very modern militarized Japan with which to pressure China into controlling North Korea. A modern military Japan puts a serious crimp in China's geopolitical desires, and China still has a frankly third-rate military. Technology counts for a lot in modern conflict, the US can funnel vast quantities of very high-end weaponry to Japan (at a profit, of course), and even Europe is a generation behind, never mind the Chinese which are much further behind on the military technology curve.

In truth, the US probably would not lose an unbridled conventional war with China, but it would be extremely pointless (never mind expensive) to even engage in such a thing and China would be very reluctant to be in such a conflict. The Chinese government would fall long before such a thing was over. Ignoring the stupidity of it all, the battlefield calculus actually gives the US a very good chance if it was a battle for survival. The US has the advantage of a monster economy, the third largest population, a military capability without peer against a third-rate military (China), and an extremely high historical conversion rate on the battlefield. By the numbers, it looks very good for the US. But there is no political will for it in the foreseeable future and that is all that matters. The people that think the US will get in a military tussle with China in the near future are ignorant blowhards -- it isn't happening.