Reply #7: I don't think it's a foregone conclusion.

[Igel]

The tribunal called for a recount in areas that they believed AMLO made the best case for demonstrating corruption in the electoral process. The numbers that have been reported in various sources are from one camp or the other, and are frequently composite numbers (total number of votes assumed to be fraudulent); AMLO has no interest in minimizing the outcome, he's convinced that he won and it's going to be hard to demonstrate that. (Even a revote that didn't go he way could be interpreted as evidence as to how well established the system of electoral corruption in Mexico is ... rendering his view unfalsifiable.)

It'll be interesting to see how the numbers actually break down by candidate and precinct, if the tribunal releases them. Whether the tribunal calls for a further recount (not unlikely yet, but getting closer to being unlikely the drop-dead date of 9/6 approaches) I don't know. I'm going on the assumption that the numbers, the probable reasons for the divergent counts per precinct, and how the numbers interpreted, matter to the tribunal.