Reply #75: He has satelite data that shows average annual slip on all areas

[Ediacara]

of the fault, and the area he's focusing on has very little slip compared to the others. These "darkened" seismic areas on a fault almost always have large earthquakes before areas that have had them more recently. Additionally, earthquake forecasting is quite accurate, you're just leaving out the important part: there's always a probability attached: such and such fault has a such and such chance of a rupture of such and such magnitude within this many years.