Reply #94: CIA: Most Cubans loyal to homeland

[Judi Lynn]

CIA: Most Cubans loyal to homeland
Agency believes various ties to island bind the majority
By Robert Windrem
NBC NEWS PRODUCER

NEW YORK, April 12 <2000> — Cuban-American exile leaders — and many Republicans in Congress — believe that no Cuban, including Juan Miguel Gonzalez, could withstand the blandishments of a suburban American lifestyle, that he and all other Cubans would gladly trade their “miserable” lives in Cuba for the prosperity of the United States — if only given the chance. Witness House Minority Leader Dick Armey’s invitation to Gonzalez, offering him a tour of a local supermarket. But U.S. intelligence suggests otherwise.

THE CIA has long believed that while 1 million to 3 million Cubans would leave the island if they had the opportunity, the rest of the nation’s 11 million people would stay behind.

While an extraordinarily high number, there are still 8 million to 10 million Cubans happy to remain on the island.
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The CIA believes there are many reasons Cubans are content to remain in their homeland. Some don’t want to be separated from home, family and friends. Some fear they would never be able to return, and still others just fear change in general. Officials also say there is a reservoir of loyalty to Fidel Castro and, as in the case of Juan Miguel Gonzalez, to the Communist Party.

U.S. officials say they no longer regard Cuba as a totalitarian state with aggressive policies toward its people, but instead an authoritarian state, where the public can operate within certain bounds — just not push the envelope.

More important, Cuban media and Cuban culture long ago raised the banner of nationalism above that of Marxism. The intelligence community says the battle over Elian has presented Castro with a “unique opportunity” to enhance that nationalism.

There is no indication, U.S. officials say, of any nascent rebellion about to spill into the streets, no great outpouring of support for human rights activists in prison. In fact, there are fewer than 100 activists on the island and a support group of perhaps 1,000 more, according to U.S. officials.
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http://members.allstream.net/~dchris/CubaFAQ019.html