Reply #1: WrapUp by Ike Iossif

[ozymandius]

"Crossroads"

In my first article for Financial Sense on 9-2-03, I commented about the high momentum readings the rally had generated by saying:

"...Next I would like to discuss two other indicators that allow us to take a rather comprehensive look under the surface. The first one is a momentum indicator designed to measure the collective momentum of the components that make up a market index. The problem with capitalization weighted indexes is that, just a handful of stocks can influence--in a rather disproportional way--the performance of the index they are a part of, which in turn distorts the true technical picture. This indicator uses the mean value of the daily momentum readings for every one of the 100 stocks that make up the NDX. Therefore, it is truly inclusive of all the stocks that make up this index and it allows us to see whether the strength/weakness of the index is accurately reflecting the strength/weakness of its individual components, as it should.

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So, given the action of the last five weeks, is the rally that we had so far only the "first leg" of another intermediate term advance or the terminal phase of the rally that started in March?

some very technical writing here, posted de rigeur