Reply #52: When paranoia is merely optimism

[PATRICK]

He hopes that this will have some effect on the Bush agenda. With his coke-rotted nose to the wind Bush will detect no surge of resistance or consequence for all this self-evident prophecy and challenge. it will not stop the agenda one bit. Negroponte's coronation as the death lord sends not a clear "signal" but a trumpet of war.

The dilemma is the same as Hussein's. The curse of oil and who do you trust. People willing to deal or use the oil may work against Chavez. He can't destroy the Great Treasure even if that was the sane thing to do. People will know what he is doing to defend himself while the luxury of attack and subversion remains with the US as ever. I think more than anything, including Castro's independence and socialist experiments, Chavez envies his ability to survive. Promising a bloodbath means no disaffected large sector of the populace(like the Shia) who will go along get along with the Conquistadores. It means denying the oil and insuring heavy US casualties.

The US policy however the business world press spins it is a thing of purest evil. World pressure is still another linchpin of protection, though its track record from Haile Selassie on has been dismal. Latin America is more capable of united than the Mideast and should do so despite major difficulties and unwillingness. By uniting means a not so subtle NATO type pact.

An attack on one is an attack on all. In this case it absolutely is.