Reply #19: Number are NOT there is Five Years

[happyslug]

The Two biggest oil fields in Production are in decline, and that decline will accelerate over the next five years. Thus five years from now you will probably see $100-200 a barrel oil (if NOT higher). On the other hand, given the surplus of oil in the world market today, the price of oil TODAY is to high, it should be $10-20 a barrel TODAY.

More on Depletion:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_depletion

Hubbert Peak Theory:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubbert_peak_theory

If you notice the big issue in regards to oil production peak and decline is WHEN it will occur NOT if it will occur. Sometime in the next 20 years world wide oil production will decline (Most independent geologist say around 2010, pessimists said it occurred around 2005, the US Government and OPEC says 2030, but no one believes them, most go with the Geologists and 2010). Please note all Three estimates are based on guesses as to how much oil are in the OPEC countries, no one really knows for that is a state secret in all of them. Geologist rely on the old reports of the Oil Companies when they controlled those fields (And NO major new oil fields in the OPEC countries have been found since the Oil Companies had to withdraw when the OPEC Countries nationalized their fields in the 1970s). The pessimists believe even the Oil Companies lied about how much oil was in the ground, so that when the fields were nationalized the oil companies would get the most money for the fields). Notice all three reports are attempts to work around the lies about how much oil is in the ground, the overall consensus is OPEC is lying and has been lying since the 1980s (When the previous oil glut hit, causing oil prices to drop like a rock, oil exports under OPEC was determined by how much oil each OPEC country had in the ground, given all of them a huge incentive to lie about how much oil was under their Country's lands).

This is complicated by the fact that whenever you have a shortage, price will go through the roof (Remember 2008? and then people will buy less of it. If the drop in demand is severe enough
you will see a drop in price. This seems to be what has happened since the Summer 2008, the high prices forced this recession on and the recession has seen a HUGE drop in the demand for oil (Not only in the US, but world wide including shipping goods from Asia to Europe and the US and from Europe to the US). This drop has lead to today's surplus and the forth coming drop in price. Speculators kept hoping US summer driving would increase, providing a base for the price, but it never did. US Sales drop like a rock, so demand for shipping dropped and with it even more support for the price of oil.

My point is sooner or later the US and world economy will get back on its feet and with it the demand for oil, prices will then go up. This will be a severe increase if production levels of the various major oil fields drop, as they are expected to do so. Thus I can support a $10 a gallon by Christmas, but NOT in five years. The price can be $100 by then (and drop back to $20 if the future increase in oil prices causes another recession, which in highly possible).