Reply #51: I Doubt it.

[happyslug]

Given that Tritium has a half-life of 12.5 years and to have a Hydrogen Bomb you have to use an Atomic (Uranium Based) bomb to produce the needed neutrons to explode the H-Bomb, the real issue is the critical mass of the Atomic Bomb that produces the Neutrons.

Now these Suit case based bombs may just be Atomic Bombs (NOT H-bombs) and thus Tritium is not needed, just Uranium or Plutonium . In such a case the critical mass of Plutonium and/or Uranium 235 needed to go super critical is the true limiting factor. To be “Weapons Grade” Uranium or Plutonium must be over 99% Uranium 235 or Plutonium.

Simply put the real issue is How much Uranium or Plutonium is left in these bombs? The problem with both is how to make sure you do not have a “critical mass” before you want the bomb to go “Super-critical”.

Remember an Atomic bomb works by putting enough fissionable material (Uranium 235 or Plutonium) in one place that the mass can sustain an ongoing nuclear reaction (called going Super-Critical). With Uranium this is simple, you just blast (Using TNT) ½ of the Super-Critical amount into the other half (Using Conventional TNT).

With Plutonium it is a little bit more difficult for Plutonium being a man-made element does not like itself even in small sub-critical amounts. Thus you have to divide the Super-Critical amount of Plutonium into portions that do not destroy itself. This is generally 1/12 of the Super-critical amount. Thus with Plutonium you have to time the explosion of all 12 (or more) subsections so that ALL of the Plutonium meets at the same time so that it goes super-critical. If just one of the 12 gets to the spot second early or late the bomb does not go super-critical. Thus Plutonium based bombs are harder to make and maintain (But you can use Plutonium instead of U-235. Most Uranium is U-238 which does not go super-critical, but U-238 can be made into Plutonium easier than it is to separate U-235 from U-238. Given these differences BOTH types of A-bombs have been used since 1945, the Bomb dropped on Hiroshima being a Uranium type bomb with the Nagasaki bomb being a Plutonium based bomb).

Most suitcase types bombs are suspected to be Uranium type bombs, just easier to make and maintain. Some people have described Plutonium based suit case bombs also but these would need to be updated more often than the Uranium type bombs not only in the Strength of the Plutonium but also to make sure the electrical current is ample to run the TNT explosives needed to combine the Plutonium to super-critical mass. Remember if the current is weak you may not set off ALL of the TNT at the same time (Needed to produce the super-critical mass).

Now the real issue is HOW much Plutonium and/or Uranium 235 is still in these bombs? As I said earlier “Weapons Grade” is over 99% Plutonium and/or Uranium 235. After a few years these weapons will down grade do to the break down of the Plutonium and/or Uranium 235. At some point the total amount of Plutonium and/or Uranium 235 will drop below the amount needed to go super-critical. At that point you still have TNT propelling Plutonium and/or Uranium 235 together that will NOT cause a Nuclear Explosion BUT will throw Plutonium and/or Uranium 235 all over the place (In effect a “dirty bomb” i.e. nuclear material being thrown all over the place BUT not nuclear explosion).

My point is that all of the talk of someone using a “Dirty Bomb” may just be want the CIA is willing to discuss because the CIA KNOWS AL Queda has purchased such weapons from the Former USSR, but that these suitcase bombs are no longer capable of going Super-Critical. Since the bombs can not longer go super-critical but still contain a huge amount of TNT which can still explode and spread the remaining Plutonium and/or Uranium 235 over a wide area.

Remember Al Queda may know the above and does not care if the Suitcase bomb goes Super-Critical or not. AL Queda by exploding it near US forces (Or in the US) would cause even greater terror if the suit case bomb do NOT go Super-critical (i.e. people run away from the area of the Explosion instead of being killed. Such movement may do more harm to our Economy than an actual atomic blast). Another way to look at it, is if such a bomb went off in the US other countries may just use such an incident to withdraw their funds from the US. Either way Al Queda wins.

In my opinion IF AL Queda has these bombs, Al Queda knows they may no longer be able to go Super-critical but what Al Queda is waiting for the right target to use them to spread terror. Terror not destruction is what Al Queda wants and for the purpose of Spreading Terror these suitcase bombs are still usable given the right target. To use them against the US Forces in Iraq or Afghanistan would NOT produce the needed terror (Unless the bomb would work as A-Bombs which I do not believe even Al Queda thinks they can). Thus if Al Queda has these bombs they will be used against US Targets NOT US forces in the Mid-East.

Please note the fact that Al Queda has NOT used them implies to me Al Queda may NOT have them. If Al Queda had them the best time to use them was right after 911. They were NOT used (Or if used the use is NOT being admitted to by the US, i.e. the US may have intercepted some of them coming into the US but refused to admit that the US has intercepted any).

Thus given the above restrictions I do not see AL Queda using these Suitcase bombs in the Mid-East, they only usability is against the US. Given NO such attack I doubt AL Queda has such weapons.

Half Life of Tritium:
http://education.yahoo.com/reference/encyclopedia/entry?id=47941