Reply #49: Ocean study predicts the collapse of all seafood fisheries by 2050

[nosmokes]

original-Stanford Report

Stanford Report, November 2, 2006
Ocean study predicts the collapse of all seafood fisheries by 2050

All species of wild seafood will collapse within 50 years, according to a new study by an international team of ecologists and economists. Writing in the Nov. 3 issue of the journal Science, the researchers conclude that the loss of marine biodiversity worldwide is profoundly reducing the ocean's ability to produce seafood, resist diseases, filter pollutants and rebound from stresses, such as climate change and overfishing.

"Unless we fundamentally change the way we manage all the ocean species together as working ecosystems, then this century is the last century of wild seafood," said study co-author Stephen Palumbi, professor of biological sciences at Stanford's Hopkins Marine Station.

Palumbi and Stanford colleague Fiorenza Micheli, assistant professor of biological sciences at Hopkins, are two of 14 co-authors of the Science study, the first major analysis of all existing datasets—historical, experimental, fisheries and observational—on ocean species and ecosystems.

Based on current global trends, the authors predicted that every species of wild-caught seafood—from tuna to sardines—will collapse by the year 2050. "Collapse" was defined as a 90 percent depletion of the species' baseline abundance.

"Whether we looked at tidepools or studies over the entire world's ocean, we saw the same picture emerging," said lead author Boris Worm of Dalhousie University. "In losing species we lose the productivity and stability of entire ecosystems. I was shocked and disturbed by how consistent these trends are—beyond anything we suspected."

The impacts of species loss go beyond declines in seafood, the authors said, noting that human health risks also emerge as depleted coastal ecosystems become vulnerable to invasive species, disease outbreaks and noxious algal blooms.
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