Reply #69: The Congo outbreak CFR is more like it, but

[sharonking21]

this particular outbreak is somewhat different in character and seems to be, on the face of it, more severe than was the case in the Congo. However, I do think Pandemic's way of calculating CFRs is somewhat idiosyncratic and may in the long run slightly overstate the CFR. What we do not know at present is the number of such cases who contracted Marburg, but never got counted, because they

*didn't become as ill, didn't go for care, etc.

* or, died without making it into the counting system.

The CFR can be misleading. You can have an extremely high CFR and still not have anything like a pandemic. What really counts in regard to spread is how many actually get the disease, especially from other humans, along with how easy or difficult it is for them to infect others. The reason this is more important is because the more people who are infected and the easier it is to transmit, the more opportunity for the virus to be given to others--it will determine how extensive the spread of the virus will be.