Are We Really Worried About Massachusetts?

[tekisui]

It is nearing absurdity to think that Massachusetts is on the verge of handing Ted Kennedy's seat to the republicans. It is almost insulting to me, in North Carolina that I am being told to make calls for Democratic support in Massachusetts! This is a media circus. It is a manufactured horse race. With this happening in an electoral vacuum, the full force of the national media is able to focus on and affect the story.

The repukes are pushing the story for it to appear close. They know they can't win it. They aren't going to try to steal it. They are creating this story as their frame. For the next weeks (probably longer) we will hear from the RW-spewers that "The goppers made it close in a place it shouldn't have been close, proof Obama is a failure!". Whether it will actually be close is yet to be seen. But, that is really all the repukes are looking for to claim victory. And, like most of their 'victories', the are devoid of any real gains.

But, hey. The national media wants to make the election a referendum on Democrats and Obama? Fine, we can play that game. When Coakley is declared winner early in the evening, we will know that the American People are still standing with the Democratic Party.


The last Senate race in Massachusetts (granted with an incumbent) (2008):



http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2008/election_results/ma_ussenate/



The last mid-term race in Massachusetts, for Governor (2006):



http://www.boston.com/news/special/politics/2006_elections/general_results/


And, 2004:

http://www.boston.com/news/special/politics/2004_results/mass_results.html

[nini]

1. The media's hyping of the polls will end up helping the Dems

by getting them off their butts and to the polls.

[tekisui]

3. I agree.

The voters in Mass are not interested in being portrayed as repukes.

[lukasahero]

33. That's what I've been saying

Honestly, if I didn't know the race was this close, I might have sat it out assuming it was in the bag. (Pathetic but true - when you're so blue you don't even think it's a contest...)

[stray cat]

2. Obama seems to be concerned - he went out of his way during a hectic time to campaign there

[tekisui]

4. Sure, he is concerned with attaching himself to this

media-created national story. He is on film standing with the winner and is the winner.

[cali]

5. I'm worried about it. This isn't 2008 or 2006

Patrick is deeply unpopular. And frankly, as of now, I think Brown will win.

[tekisui]

10. I'll eat my hat if Mass hands it to a puke.

[Jennicut]

6. There is no other race for the media to focus on. And the Dems are in power right now.

Plus the media is naturally more sympathetic to those who want to tax the wealthy the least. All 3 things add up to pure media speculation.

[cliffordu]

7. I'm not worried.

[virgogal]

21. Me neither---and I live in MA.

[laughingliberal]

8. I hope you're correct about this. I'm worried. nt

[Ozymanithrax]

9. The media does create drama in order to make money...

but that doesn't mean that the polls are wrong.

I think it hinges on turnout. There are about a half million more registered independents than Democrats, and more than a million more Democrats than Republicans. Independents can swing his in a Republican favor if they vote big. The past doesn't always predict the future.

***Edited to clear up a monstrous misspelling.

[tekisui]

13. All true. I too think, like said upthread, this will get them off their asses.

[dkf]

11. Okay I'm glad I can relax then

[jpak]

12. DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN

something to think about...

[KingFlorez]

14. I don't think we'll lose it, but we should always work hard for seats

Personally, I think the whole idea that this would be a cakewalk because it was a blue state and Kennedy's seat was what put it in contention. Voters don't really like being taken for granted and it can cause shakeups.

[OHdem10]

15. The main reason to worry is polls show "independents swinging

to Brown. Republicans are good at emotional appeal and
excitement (mob psychology) at the very end of a race.

Focusing on Blue Collar Sections.

[Drunken Irishman]

17. A week ago. Most polls show Brown's momentum tapering off.

[Grand Taurean]

18. We could use reconfirmation of this.

Do you know of any final polls coming out?
GOTV is key here.

[Drunken Irishman]

20. PPP.

They had Brown leading by two back on the ninth. Their poll released tonight should show it a tie.

If that's the case, it will suggest Brown's surge has ended.

[tekisui]

23. Not just ended, but peaked.

[Grand Taurean]

34. Last PPP poll, Brown 51% Coakley 46%

[WI_DEM]

16. they elected Mitt Romney when another dem ran a lackluster campaign

[Meldread]

19. I think the best answer to give is: "We just don't know."

I am inclined to agree with you; no matter what the fight is going to be uphill for Brown. To throw out a prediction, I'm going to say Coakley wins by 5 to 10 points, and if by some miracle Brown wins it's going to be by 1 point or less - enough to tie it up in the courts for months.

Why don't we know for certain? It is very hard to poll for special elections. You never know who is going to turn out.

However, at the moment both sides are energized. Republicans believe they have a real shot, so they want to GOTV and Democrats desperately want to hold onto the seat. If there is going to be a depressed turn out then it's going to be on the Democratic side, and that'll naturally favor Brown.

This all brings me back to my original statement: "We just don't know." Therefore, it's better to be safe than sorry. My gut has me cautiously optimistic though, but that's difficult to trust because I don't live in Massachusetts and therefore can't really "feel" which way the wind is blowing.

As for the media, they're of course hyping it for ratings. However, now that they have Haiti to talk about (real news at last), they'll talk about that until ratings start to drop and then shift to something else. The media hype may have worked in favor of the Democrats though, and energized the party enough to have a GOTV to at least equal the Republicans. Without the media hype, I think Brown's chances would have been much better - putting my predicted Coakley victory into a 1 or 2 percentage point margin. Perhaps even enough for a court challenge.

[Raspberry]

22. Have you checked Intrade lately?

I've heard they are pretty reliable.

[tekisui]

24. I heard they base their numbers only on individual's speculation.

[Tippy]

25. " They aren't going to try to steal it."

Are you sure?....Remember they have done it before...2000-Gore ....2002-Max Cleland and Sonny Perdue lost in Georgia after a Diabold rep installed a patch on machines, to fix a clock, in 2 counties then....Kerry in 2004....Mike Connel who worked for Bush died in a plane crash before he was testify about what happened in Ohio....

[leftygolfer]

26. This is surreal to me too...but now for reality

We do OUR job in GOTV...and we win. It's that simple. No way they outnumber us. All they can do is outwork us. And shame on us if we let that happen.

[rucky]

27. How'd Mitt Romney get elected?

[RBInMaine]

28. They elect lots of R govs in MA, Coakley is flat and was too quiet for too long, AND there is a rec-

ession on which has people very upset and feeling anti-incumbent, and the current D Governor is not popular. Put it all together, and THIS is why she is struggling. Had she hit the ground running hard as all hell the day after he won the primary she'd be in a much better spot. That all said, Dem volunteers are working the phones and ground hard, and with heavy GOTV they can do it, and I damn well hope so.

[UTUSN]

29. O.K., so you give me HOPE!1 Thank you!1 n/t

[NYC_SKP]

30. Well, here's a election result map for Massachusetts we DON'T want to see:

Romney 2002:

[TheCowsCameHome]

31. Check back Wednesday morning. I'm not taking anything for granted.

There's a lot of frustrated and angry people in this state, though, that much I CAN tell you.

[Diamonique]

32. I totally agree with the OP.

I posted here yesterday that Coakley will win. It will be closer than it should be, but not as close as the MSM is portraying it.