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His second rule is that "nobody knows anything".
The bothersome fact is that the administration that led us into this evil world-dominating morass didn't even TRY to know anything.
We're trying to reclaim Baghdad by making many small outposts and patrolling regularly, except that now we're doing our big splurge in the suburbs to take out other targets. We're doing this, we're doing that, and we're not doing anything particularly decisively.
It's a mess. We've basically installed the Shiites because we're so afraid of the Sunnis.
To achieve victory, one has to have an image of what victory would be, and I don't think they do.
We are not the primary concern of the warring parties, or there'd be a lot more U.S. dead; they're more concerned with offing each other. If they get sick of us and decide to bury the hatchet, all hell will break loose. Judging from the extreme enmity that has them blowing up each others mosques right now, I don't see any substantive truce between them in the near future.
I don't know what's going on other than that, and neither do most people, including those allegedly in charge. It's a nasty, complex mess with civilians dying and suffering endlessly as their society itself is being ripped apart. Leaders and civic luminaries are being constantly killed and replaced, families are being disrupted, fundamentalism is breaking out, rampant crime is the norm, sewage is everywhere, electricity and gasoline are in short supply, hope is fleeting and uncertainty is everywhere. Many of the best and brightest have fled, which makes the medical and social systems even worse, and the fabric of society is frayed to the disintegration point. Historically, conditions like these tend to lead to overthrows and extreme dictatorships out of desperation.
Meanwhile, we play whack-a-mole and then scamper back to our little fortresses.
Our forces are wearing out their vehicles and equipment, and with the increased number of troops, our supply problems are getting worse. Bridges and overpasses are being blown (although that seems to have stopped just recently) which just makes the logistics worse.
At some point, the semblance of order will break down even more.
Anyone who says he/she knows what's going to happen next is either clairvoyant or deluded. We can, however, narrow down the possibilities a bit, and I think you see what they are.
What we've done is despicable and reckless, and we're not going to stop.
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