Israel Fears High Price for U.S. Strike on Iran

[lovuian]

http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=33860
snip...

As the Iranian nuclear stand-off has taken its turns and twists, the initial Israeli calculation of either forcing an Iranian capitulation through U.S. political and economic pressure, or -- if worse came to worst -- by eliminating the programme through clean and surgical military strikes, have all proven to be pipe-dreams, primarily due to the disastrous consequences of the Iraq war.

Eager to take advantage of Washington's quagmire in Iraq, Tehran has defied every red line the U.S. and the West have put in front of it, including the zero enrichment demand. Even Vice President Dick Cheney's threats of "meaningful consequences" if Iran continued on its path failed to deter Tehran, which was clearly in no mood to capitulate.

In addition, the Iraq experience has shown that no "clean and surgical" military option exists. Even though the military dimension itself may not be too complex, Washington is poorly placed to deal with the political aftermath in the region. Rather, increasing the pressure on Iran is more likely to lead to a prolonged and bloody conflict that may very well engulf the entire region -- including Israel.

This scenario drastically differs from the situation it faced three years ago when the U.S. entered Iraq. This time around, the Jewish State will likely not be able to sit comfortably on the sidelines while the U.S. neutralises one of its most potent regional foes.

According to Martin Indyk of the Brookings Institution, the Israelis "assume they'll be struck first in retaliation by Iran." In fact, a top Revolutionary Guards commander, Gen. Mohammad Dehghani, said as much to the Iranian Student News Agency earlier in May. "We have announced that wherever America does make any mischief, the first place we target will be Israel," he said.
more...

The incompetence of the Iraq War has had ramifications on the bombing of Tehran...and Tehran knows who to easiest to bomb...

[NNN0LHI]

1. What does Iran have to gain by capitulating?

Shock And Awe?

Don

[lovuian]

2. :kick:

:kick:

[Skidmore]

3. Well, gee, Israel. Do you suppose that refusing to negotiate

and finding ways to live with other countries in that region might have something to do with it? Territorial grabs and preemptive strikes (remember bombing Iran before) doesn't win friends for you. *is learning that too.

[bemildred]

4. Gee, who could have predicted this? nt