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The Miracle of Coogan's Bluff (1951) vs the Miracle of Bush's Bluff (2004)

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-25-05 11:19 PM
Original message
The Miracle of Coogan's Bluff (1951) vs the Miracle of Bush's Bluff (2004)
Edited on Wed May-25-05 11:42 PM by TruthIsAll
August 12, 1951:
Brooklyn Dodgers: 73-38
New York Giants: 59-51 (13.5 games behind)

The Giants won 37 of their last 44 games.
The Dodgers won 23 of their last 43 games.

They tied for the pennant at 96-58.

The Giants won the playoff when Bobby Thomson (the Flying Scot) hit the Shot Heard Round the World.

It was called the Miracle of Coogan's Bluff, named after the Harlem site on the hill where the Polo Grounds once stood.

The Giants Won the Pennant!
The Giants Won the Pennant!
The Giants Won the Pennant!

The probability of this miracle was 1 in 737,984.

Compare that to the 1 in 19 trillion chance that 16 states would exceed the margin of error - all in favor of Bush.

*****************************************************
Probability (Giants winning at least 37 of 44 games):
= 1-BINOMDIST (36,44,59/110,true) = 2.16806E-05
= 1 in 46124

Probability (Dodgers winning at most 23 of 45 games):
= BINOMDIST (23,43,73/111, TRUE)
= 0.064448418
= 1 IN 16

Joint Probability of 1 and 2:
= 1 in 737,984
*****************************************************

The odds that the MoE would be exceeded in ANY given state for Bush is 1 in 40 (2.5%) at the 95% confidence level.

Probability (at least 16 states exceed the MoE for Bush):
= 1-BINOMDIST(15,50, 1/40,TRUE)
= 5.24025E-14
= 1 in 19,083,049,268,519



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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-26-05 01:15 AM
Response to Original message
1. I was there, virtually.
I'm sure I had just left diapers at that point and, as the story goes, I was standing next to the radio, paying close attention when Thompson let it fly. A great day for Manhattan, the heart of New York City!

----------------------------------------------------------------------
Thompson's whole body sags, it loses vigor and resistance, and Robinson calls time and walks the ball to the mound in pigeon-toed gait that makes his path seem less crooked.

"The Giants'll have to hire that midget if they want to win, what's-his-name, because their only hope is some freak of nature," Gleason says. "An earthquake or a midget. And since this ain't California, you better pray for an elf in flannels."


UNDERWORLD Don DeLillo, p. 17
-------------------------------------------------------------------
An unlikely miracle that actually happened, and everybody who heard it knew it because it was real.

Did we have the same feeling election night 2004 when the calls came in for Bush, when the magical voting tallies were suddenly justified with rigged...er...revised National Exit Polls, when we found out the next day that the youth vote didn't really turn out (lie) and that peoples' main concern was "values" (lie). Of course not, because the damn thing was fixed.


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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-27-05 05:50 PM
Response to Original message
2. Kerry won the election! Kerry won the election! Kerry won the election!
/
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Peace Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-30-05 06:11 AM
Response to Reply #2
3. And just think what Giants fans would have done to that stadium if...
...the scorekeepers had changed the score, right then, just friggin' CHANGED IT, to fit the preconceived result that the Dodgers won. And then all the TV and radio commentators just cheerily repeated that, of course, the Dodgers won anyway. And the officials all agreed. No, the score can't be changed to reflect that hit, because the Dodgers won. Can't you see the scoreboard? And no amount of arguing with the scorekeepers could change it. And people said, "Didn't you SEE that hit? Don't you have EYES? You dirtbag! You scum! Who paid you off?!" And the scorekeepers and the TV and radio reporters and the officials all said, "Yeah, he did hit it, that's true. But the score says otherwise. And we got to go with the score. That's the score. That's the official score. Can't argue with that."

They would have torn those scorekeepers and TV and radio commentators and baseball officials limb from limb.

So that's what we need here, don't we? Some good, red-blooded American baseball fans to get good and pissed off about Bushites changing the scoreboard.

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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-30-05 11:56 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. And those Giant's fans would have been justified...
Seeing your victory robbed in plain sight, after all, this was a Manhattan crowd. This is a great scenario, highly instructive.

Here is a little different scenario. In 1972, the Steelers beat the Raiders for the AFL championship with "The Immaculate Reception." A Steeler (Fuqua) batted a bobbled pass to another Steeler, Franco Harris (a clear violation of the rules), and they won in the last seconds. The referees huddled after a vigorous Raider protest. The referees knew that the touchdown was bogus but, later, said that there was no way they'd have changed the call for fear of their safety...because they were in Pittsburgh.

This one sounds like Florida 2000. The Baker bought bullies roaming the halls, the madman Bolton's other shenanigans, and the pre-election trick play by the State of Florida (Bush/Harris - another Harris) which employed a program that even the software vendor knew would disenfranchise voters.

We were robbed twice. As * slips into the high 30's and then downward, people will be much more receptive to the truth. We just have to keep fighting.

NEW LEADERS FOR A NEW DEMOCRATIC PARTY!

Contact the DNC and Give 'em Hell About NOT Acting on Election Fraud


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