Can Clark raise the money necessary to beat Bush?

[doubles]

My answer is no because he does not have the Dean factor. As Gore said, Dean managed to mobilized millions of people and millions of dollars, unprecedented for a newcomer.

Dean is not spending money counteracting the negative press, what is he doing with his money? If Dean loses the nomination, would he forward his unused money to Clark, are there laws for this?

I am worried about Clark's ability to raise money.

[YellowDawgDemocrat]

1. No

[Bill of Rights]

46. If Clark wins the nomination

he can decide to forgo the public monies. He'll have to pay them back and a penalty. But he can get out of the arrangement.

[andym]

73. Do you have a link or source?

Do you have a link or source for the possibility of opting out later and repaying matching funds?

[graelent]

No, because he is accepting Public Money

And will be open to three month's of attacks by Bush which will have to go unanswered.

[farmbo]

36. Yet Clark supporters just don't get it...

He's a great candidate who just can't win because he "opt'ed in" for spending limits. His federal "match": $3.7 million which will arrive late...about as much as Dean can (legally) raise on the bat over a long weekend.

He will be legally prohibited from spending money to counter the $200 million Rovian mudslide headed HIS WAY.

What a waste.

Where are the grownups in his campaign?

[SadEagle]

2. It will be hard, but it has nothing to do with Clark per se.

He accepted matching funds (he had to, starting to late), so he will have about $45 million or so at most to spend until the convention, which can be problematic. Clark (and his supporters) are pretty good fundraisers, but it wouldn't matter much due to the cap (which can be worse if the primaries drag out)

[deminflorida]

3. Not really....

He has Clinton and Hollywood in his corner...

http://www.clark04.com/madonna/

She can buy Dean and his whole army college students lock stock and barrel.

[Clark4VotingRights]

4. Sorry to crash your party, but Clark's already proven he can raise big $.

Lots and fast.
I think he’s demonstrated it to a pretty dazzling degree in fact.
Of course he doesn't have as much accumulated as Dean...yet. He's been in the
race just over 3 months! But when people see him and hear him, the money flows.
He’s that impressive.

I feel certain that there are tons of rich Dem celebrities that will gladly donate to Clark.
He’s been meeting with them all along. Great people like Steven Spielberg.

And he probably has the option of declining federal matching funds for the GE, just like Dean and Bush did. He’s not a fool. If the playing field is completely off balance because of Bush’s bucks, he’ll level it. He knows he’s in the battle of his life; he won’t go in unarmed. He is most definitely not a fool.

I know that's not the answer you were hoping for, but it's true.

[slinkerwink]

9. he can't raise any more than $45 million until July 1st.

That's three months of a small amount of money which will be depleted after the primaries compared to Bush's 200 million dollars. From March to July, Clark has to remain below $45 million dollars, so......Clark might not be able to save himself after the Bush machine is done with him when the general election starts so he can raise more money.

[Clark4VotingRights]

11. Keep telling yourself that he can't, so you'll feel better.

Meanwhile he will.

But just so you feel better...

[Lobo_13]

25. No he can't

not without breaking the law. 45 mil is all he can raise.

Sorry, but the sooner you adjust to that, the sooner you can begin to adjust to a Dean candidacy and ultimately, presidency.

[LuminousX]

39. Is he prevented from fundraising or just spending?

I am unclear on that. I know he can't spend any money while Bush uses his 200 million against him, but is he prevented from raising money?

[Printer70]

17. DLC money

Is only good for the primary. After that Clark's going to have to win over the masses with his fundraising pitch, and he doesn't have the charisma to pull it off.

[Clark Can WIN]

43. Your perceptions of Clark Charisma seem to me to be based upon wish

as opposed to fact. Like the FACT that he raised over 11 million dollars in his FIRST full quarter of fund raising.

Obviously there are at least 11 million reasons to discount your perception of Clarks charisma.

[MercutioATC]

35. He had the "DraftClark" money waiting for him when he declared.

I'm not saying anything bad about the guy, but he has NOT shown the fundraising success that Dean has....not even close.

[LTR]

65. The Draft money was not very much

Most of it came after he declared.

[MercutioATC]

70. I believe it was over $3M, but I could be mistaken...

.

[xultar]

5. Soros! with his millions in Anti GWB ads there will be no

shortage of $$$$$ to run Anti-winghut ads after and during the rethug convention.

[Hawkeye-X]

54. Do you honestly think Soros will allow his money to be spent

On a Republican-lite like Clark?

Soros knows that Clark's dead meat.

Hawkeye-X

[Hoppin_Mad]

6. The Clark supporters don't face the fact that he won't have the $$$

To fight bush*. Methinks they're angling for a VP spot anyway either now.

[SahaleArm]

7. Neither will Dean - Bush will double whatever Dean gets n/t

[LuminousX]

41. Dean will be able to spend what he has though; Clark won't be able to

Clark has taken public financing and will have to abide by the spending limits.

[xultar]

8. So $$$$ chooses the candidate and not the best candidate

for the job.
Will Dean hold on to his $$$ and not support the nominee?

[maxr4clark]

10. Clark raised $15M from October 21 to Dec 31

Which suggests to me that he can raise money just fine, even with Dean competing for the same $$$. For the General election, assuming Clark wins the nomination, Dean's supporters will have the opportunity to donate to the Dem nominee's election fund.

Fundraising isn't a reason to vote against Clark.

[Clark4VotingRights]

13. Good point max4clark. Clark raised big bucks while competing w Dean.

During the GE, he'll be raising money from a much larger pool.

[Lobo_13]

24. but if you want to be completely honest

a good chunk of that 3.5 mil that he raised in the third quarter was from pledges made during the entire summer in the exploratory scam that was DraftClark.

Dean's already on track to raise above the cap by the end of the month at the latest. Which means he'll have more cash than Clark can raise.

[maxr4clark]

60. The question wasn't whether Clark could out-raise Dean,

but whether Clark could raise money. He can, and has. Dean has also spent more than Clark has. Then again, Dean is independently wealthy, and Clark is not. I don't for a minute think that Clark will out-raise Dean during the race for the nomination.

If the general election is going to be decided by money, Bush will win. I was answering the question in terms of the evidence fund raising provides that the candidate has support out there. Clark does; Dean does. Moseley-Braun apparently does not.

[Hawkeye-X]

61. Please provide proof that Dean is spending more than Clark

Cite or article please.

Thank you.

Hawkeye-X

[Lone Pawn]

12. If Dean's not a total bastard...

He'll mobilize his legions for Clark (should Clark win) and go balls-out fundraising to beat Bush.

[LuminousX]

15. I support Dean, but I don't take orders from him

Clark will have to win my loyalty.

[Lone Pawn]

22. So you won't donate or campaign for the Dem nominee if he isn't Dean?

Scary enough.

[LuminousX]

42. I never said that, I said that I dont' take my marching orders from Dean

and you were calling Dean a bastard if he doesn't order me to work for Clark.

That is scary.

Dean's machine will be here long after Dean leaves the stage. If Clark wants our energy, money, and support, he damn well better earn it.

[LuminousX]

14. No. The spending black out will destroy his campaign

[Printer70]

16. No. Not in a million years. Lacks charisma.

GOP gets rich donors to cough up their pocket change (a few thousand for them). The only way a Democrat is going to match through charismatic appeal to the people- and Clark doesn't have that. He's stiff and frankly, boring. I think Democrats will really ask themselves- if I give him $100 and he's elected, will things really change?

[killbotfactory]

18. Nope.

Not unless he breaks the law.

[maxanne]

20. somehow

that fact keeps on getting ignored here. Thanks killbotfactory.

[gulliver]

19. If the election is about money, Bush wins.

It isn't. Clark brings something money can't buy. He is a priceless gift to the Dems. Developments this week show that the Dems are starting to realize what they have in Clark. His poll numbers are climbing, because all you have to do is watch him once to see what he can do.

Clark is winner, not just for the presidency but for Democratic ideals across the board.

[xray s]

21. TV ads are not the only way to communicate

Yeah, money is important. But for cryin'out loud, Clark won't have his mouth duck taped shut for three months. He can go on every talk show/pundit show and sell himself. Oprah. Dave. 60 Minutes. The View. Larry. And on and on.

BTW, I think this applies to Dean and the rest of the Dem field as well.

The big difference, Bush WON"T go in front of the people. He has to hide because he has horrible social skills. He is a total doofus in any uncontroled, unscripted venue.

Face it, if money will dictate who wins, we will lose, because Bush will raise more than we ever can.

So we have to start thinking about other ways to win, outside of what the limits placed on the "official campaign"

[Lobo_13]

23. Clark supporters refuse to recognize

the fatal flaw of accepting the matching funds. They have this abiding belief that angels and fairies will come down at night and whisper the gospel of Clark into everyone's ear. Jesus would have a hard time getting elected if he couldn't get out to tell folks that he came back.

He had the potential to raise the money, especially after any Dean people would have switched. But he pissed it away for 3.7 mil.

[FrenchieCat]

27. I think that clark

Will have what it takes to take on Bush...he's got the intellect and the Gravitas...damn, he's nearly the shadow President already....everytime Clark openes his mouth......Condi and Rove are taking notes and adopting 1/2 of his proposal on how to fight this war......

IF THE MAN WAS ABLE TO RAISE THE MONEY THAT HE DID AND INCREASE HIS SUPPORT WITHOUT THE MEDIA......OTHER THAN COMMERCIALS HERE AND THERE...THINK OF WHAT HE'LL BE ABLE TO DO WHEN THE MEDIA DOES FOCUS ON HIM (LIKE IT JUST STARTED DOING)...

Remember that Clark has been on operation ignore for the last 2 months....and what were the pundits saying? Well when they did bother to mention his name which was not often...it was CLARK IS FADING...CLARK IS FIZZLING...CLARK IS GOING NO WHERE!

PLUUUUUUEAZE...STOP DELUDING YOURSELVES...

WE'VE GOT US A HELL OF A CANDIDATE IN WES CLARK!

[Lobo_13]

28. See what I mean

Clarks campaign strategy (which is only alluded to by any clark supporters) is apparently to rely on third parties to get the word out. Leaving it in someone else's hands is not a winning strategy.

Not very convincing strategy. And it still doesn't explain why the hell he took the matching funds when he had the potential to raise more than the cap. What the f was he thinking?

I'm starting to think more and more that he doesn't want to win.

[FrenchieCat]

37. What third party are you speaking off?

So you think that Dean is going to be able to raise a lot of money now that he's getting all of this negative press. Himself and his supporters?????.....pluuuueaze...

You think that the media's not going to cover him at all now? Even if he's the nominee?

Soros Doubts
George Soros doesn't seem to have an issue with Clark and matching funds!
http://www.townhall.com/columnists/robertnovak/rn20031220.shtml
WASHINGTON -- Left-wing billionaire investor George Soros, who appeared to support Howard Dean for president, now is privately expressing doubts about the Democratic Party's front-runner.

In conversations with political friends, Soros confided he has become alarmed by Dean's recent performance and wonders whether the former Vermont governor is capable of defeating George W. Bush. In one such chat, Soros suggested he is interested in retired Gen. Wesley Clark


and Dean won't even get matching funds....Ha!

[Lobo_13]

38. Beats the hell out of me

but the Clark campaign seems to hinge on the press giving him a fair shake, 527 organizations hyping him, and Bush NOT going after him.

Foolhardy.

[FrenchieCat]

49. Maybe that's what you are figuring.....

Unlike Dean, Clark doesn't need to spend zillions of dollars to get the nomination...remember he started late...he has many more million yet to raise before he hits any caps! Please, if you do the math...the only ones putting him a negative because of it are other candidates' supporters.

[Lobo_13]

50. This isn't about the nomination

This is about those precious months between the time the nominee is mathematically determined and the convention.

Once the nomination is decided, then whoever the nominee is will have to spend money like mad to keep up with Bush*. Clark has about 25 mil to go, but that's going to be gone really quick.

I certainly wish him the best of luck in getting a 25 mil quarter. The nom will be decided by the middle of march.

[Eric J in MN]

26. It's the worst mistake of his campaign.

It's the worst mistake of his campaign.

After Bush, Dean, and Kerry turned down matching funds, why couldn't the Clark campaign see the importance of doing the same?

[billbuckhead]

30. Throwing money at things doesn't necessarily solve problems

I think Clark will overcome the money thing like he did in civilian life. Besides Dean's negatives are so high, buying Madison Avenue, CBS and CNN couldn't overcome them.

[Lobo_13]

32. Ignoring the realities of political campaigns

All of the character in the world means nothing if you can't defend yourself.

This is not about tv advertising. It's about campaign expenditures of all sorts. Direct mail, phone banking, travel, everything is cut off.

Bush will have three months to tell everyone what a bastard Clark is, and nothing will stop him.

[slinkerwink]

33. it makes me think that they're too overconfident......pride cometh before

a fall from grace.

[Clark Can WIN]

44. Taking notes

Slinkerwink says "It makes me think they're too overconfident.. pride cometh before a fall from grace"

Can you see, Slinkerwink, a scenario where that may be applied to the Dean campaign?

[slinkerwink]

69. we're never overconfident---we've been fighting like hell every hour,

and every day in here and out on the streets to get the message out.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

29. It won't matter.

[Bread and Circus]

31. Yes, he will beat Bush, therefore what he raises will be enough.

This is not about money, this is about character and
leadership.

Clark is the clear choice.

You can't make a sow's ear into a silk purse.

[Kahuna]

34. Did Dean raise 14 million after just three weeks in the race?

No he didn't. Clark will do just fine.

as an aside: Why do I always have to state the obvious? x(

[Hawkeye-X]

56. You seem to forget the 3.7M that was raised BEFORE the candidacy

which means JACK.

Let's see how much Clark gets after he starts to lose the states because he can't spend any more money after he's broke in the middle of February after towards the end of March.

Hawkeye-X

[JVS]

40. No

[Eloriel]

45. Helluva candidate, good fundraiser -- BUT

I don't think Clark supporters are quite getting it. This has nothing to do with his ability as a politician to raise money -- he's already demonstrated that.

This has to do with the law.

He has opted IN for matching funds. On the carrot side, that gives him $3.7 million any day now.

On the stick side, he is constrained by law, until AFTER our convention (which is at the end of July) to raising and spending NO MORE THAN $45 million total. And there are state caps, too, but I'm frankly not familiar with them.

It doesn't matter how much he COULD raise. It doesn't matter who will or would or might or could send him money. By law, because he accepted matching funds for the primary, he is forbidden to raise OR spend any more than $5 million total until the National Democratic Party Convention in late July.

Now, it's quite true that money isn't everything. It's also true that most of the time, Dems are outspent by Repugs and we still win.

However, there comes a point where money is important -- vital, even. Clark will most likely be spent out by about March, maybe a little later. Let's be optimistic and say he goes all the way to the end of May with his $45 million.

(And remember, this isn't a cap on advertising -- this is a cap on ALL campaign spending -- even salaries for key staff.)

That still leaves two months during which he can't even RAISE money to be ready to go in August. Two months in which George Bush, with his absolutely unlimited funds can attack him 24/7 on the air and everywhere else. They can plant horrible stories about him in a willing press and the only way Clark could respond is by going on talk shows -- IF he can afford the plane fare (and that probably can't be out of personal expenditures either).

Does this sound like a winning strategy to you?

I don't think 527 groups' issue advertising are allowed to coordinate with campaigns, so that's unlikely to be of much help at all. (And I don't think they're allowed to promote a candidate, either, but I'm not sure.) So they can't find out from the Clark campaign what is the truth to counter a Bush campaign dirty tricks lie .... and there'll be plenty of them.

he probably can't even keep his website and blog up -- that costs money too. Perhaps he could prepay those expenses before he maxes out at $45 million.

Most likely, he'll be out of money before the end of May -- so there are even more weeks and months where he can be savaged while both hands are tied behind his back.

It's not a good outlook, IMO, and that's being generous.

There were a lot of people who criticized Dean mercilessly for opting out of matching funds (even tho the way his campaign is raising money actually exceeds the spirit of campaign finance refor because the money is overwhelmingly from The People, not special interests), but it at least promises to keep Dean viable, and the same can't, IMO, be said for the Clark campaign.

This MAY end up being the key "electability" factor.

Eloriel

[Lobo_13]

47. Thank you for the eloquent explanation

I'm afraid it will fall on deaf ears, though.

I've been trying to explain it for a couple of weeks, but they either ignore it or just say they'll find a way (no one has explained "the way" as of yet.)

[NV1962]

57. Good point, BUT...

527s will kick in nicely, precisely because they can focus on issues.

Bush will lose on issues - not because he's a bad president.

[LoneStarDem]

62. Ahem....

What I think you're missing is that Clark's late entry actually *helps* him in terms of reaching the convention under the cap. To date his burn rate has been incredibly low (the third quarter was around 100k total, I know, because he was only in it for a few weeks). If we disregard the matching funds for now, he has taken in about 15-16mil, mostly in the fourth quarter. I haven't been able to track down how much he spent Q4, but lets say a generous 8mil. Assuming he can pull down the entire 45mil, that leaves 37mil to get him from Jan to July, seven months. That gives him 5.3mil per month or almost 15.9mil per quarter, more than anyone has even *raised* in a quarter. He's fine. Dean, no shame on him, had to opt out; because of his previous quarters of spending, he really would have been screwed.
Dean Expen:
Q1: 0.7mil
Q2: 3.3mil
Q3: 8.8mil
Q4: ? (Call it another 8mil)

Total: 20.8mil

Which would have left him just 24.2mil for seven months if he had stayed under the cap. As it stands, at the end of Q3 he had about 12.5mil in cash on hand. If we go with the above numbers (15mil in, 8mil out) that leaves him with about 20mil on hand going into January. *If* he can do another 15mil/Q for the next two quarters, that will give him a comfy ~7.2mil a month, or 21 and change a quarter. But, that is assuming present contribution levels can be sustained and that he doesn't run into a wall of either stagnating support or maxed out donors. Of course, the same goes for Clark, but he does get that nice matched funds nest egg every quarter. As it stands, Dean does have something of an advantage as far as long term funding (maybe), but it's not the disparity that some have made it out to be.

[John_H]

48. The last gasps of the Dean campaign are coming this early?

I didn't expect the Matching Funds Shuffle to kick in until Clark passed Dean in the polls.

I'm tired, but here's a short lesson in campaign finance. 45 million is more than enough money to do everything you need to do pre convention. It's more than enough to stay up on the air. It's way more enough to put an organization together. It's a lot of money.

And guess what? Chimp won't be spending a lot of his money pre convention either.

But but but...why? Chimp will need spend most of his money on GOTV just like he did in 2000, since it's much more expensive for rethugs to get out their vote than it is Dems.

And we should never lose sight of the fact that Dean can't beat Bush no matter how much money he has. These dean gasps are mute and moot ones at that.

[Lobo_13]

52. So if Bush* splits

100 mil in tv and other advertising and 100 mil in GOTV, then Clark will do just fine with his five or six mil for three or four months?

Uh-huh.

[John_H]

67. TV doesn't cost a hundred mil, and there are many many ways

to go up as you yourself have mentioned in other threads. Yes, if Clark has it sewn up, he'll be fine for three months.

My guess is Bush will spend next to nothing before the convention and then go on a huge blitz afterwards. He's going to outspend everyone by a wide margin.

I'd rather have a guy who can win w/ less money than a guy who can't win with all the money in the world.

[IndianaGreen]

51. No!

The only two candidates that can compete with Bush, insofar money is concerned, are Kerry and Dean.

[doubles]

68. Kerry? Are you serious? Kerry has big bucks? nt

[Hawkeye-X]

53. No.

The answer is simple. No. He cannot go beyond 45 million in public funds under FEC rules. I wish the Clark folks would realize that * will bury him during the summer while Clark sits on his sorry butt, twiddling his thumbs doing ABSOLUTELY nothing because HE CAN'T SPEND THE MONEY!

[JVS]

55. Do an edit fast

[Hawkeye-X]

58. Done.

:eyes:

Clark folks need a lesson in FEC law.

Hawkeye-X

[IndianaGreen]

59. That lesson applies to all the candidates, but Dean and Kerry

If the Democrats nominate someone other than Dean or Kerry, Bush will have a competitive advantage by virtue of not having his hands tied by the FEC.

[artr2]

63. No because the same corporate money ...

that owns both partys will soon come flowing. Clark is just the Dem entry for the big money boys.

Clark = Bush

[Lurking Dem]

64. Gore was outspent

and managed to beat him.

[Killarney]

66. The $45M cap is only for the primaries

For the general election, he'll be able to raise plenty. Sure, Bush will outraise and outspend him just as he would any other democrat. But Clark will have no problem with money in the general election.

No matter who the candidate is, they automatically get millions from the DNC. And most people are waiting until a nominee is chosen to contribute to the campaign.

[slinkerwink]

71. the 45 cap lasts until july 1st.

so for two months, Clark will be faced by Bush's $200 million advertising machine.

[Dookus]

72. any candidate who can't get his message out

for 45 million dollars probably has a pretty weak message.

Clark will do just fine.