Yes, damn it, I'm fucking concerned...

[cynatnite]

I remember 2004 and I remember how confident I was. I was so sure Kerry would win and I was thrilled for a solid week before that election.

Not so fast, this time around. I'm sweating over the polls, watching the reports, and can't stop thinking about purged voters.

I am not going to take one thing forgranted and I will not stop doing what I can to help get Obama to the WH.

Concerned, worried, terrified, agonizing...just a few of adjectives would describe my state of mind.

I won't relax until election day. Celebration will only come when majority of the major networks declare Obama the winner.

[treestar]

1. go here

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

And compare today's map with "This day in 2004."

[cynatnite]

2. Oh, I've been doing that...

I'm just unwilling to take anything forgranted this time around. Thanks :hi:

[calimary]

45. Hey, move over. We will cling to each other and chew fingernails.

I am nervous as HELL!

I'm with the Daily News correspondent who just wants this The Fuck OVER!!!!!!!!

I tend to have very low blood pressure. Except for these days...

[Buzz Clik]

16. Seriously. Anyone who was "confident" of a Kerry win in 2004 was delusional.

I was absolutely shocked to see Kerry even competitive on election night.

[GrizzlyMan]

25. I felt the same way. I knew he was done by late July.

[politicasista]

60. Yep. Cause he didn't have any party support like Obama n/t

[faithfulcitizen]

26. Well, count me in that delusional crowd. I was one of those suckers that believed the exit polling.

:(

[Buzz Clik]

42. Do yourself a favor and ignore the television all day next Tuesday.

Go to a movie and don't start watching tv until about 9 pm EST. It will save you a lot of illusions painted by the press.

[faithfulcitizen]

56. No way, I wouldn't miss it for the world ! I'm not the OP; I'm not that concerned.

I'm pretty hopeful. ;)

[Medusa]

47. me too.

:shrug:

[crossroads]

27. Cool map! thanks...

[GOTV]

32. NIce!

[a kennedy]

48. Thank you for this site......

feel lots better. :hug: :woohoo: :applause: :patriot:

[ClassWarrior]

3. Sweating, watching and thinking too hard won't do it. Acting will. Thanks for doing...

...what you're doing to guarantee victory, cynatnite.

:toast:

NGU.

[Wednesdays]

8. GOTV!

The people who keep busy volunteering won't have time to worry about polls.

[writes3000]

4. As long as you're WORKING rather than sitting at home fretting, I thank you.

Those that ONLY fret and ask others "to talk them down" aren't doing a damn thing.

[cynatnite]

6. I've needed to be talked down a few times on the voter purging issues...

It's kept me up at night.

[asjr]

20. That and the voting machines

keep me on edge. I was too confident in 2000 and 2004. I take nothing for granted now.

[renate]

5. read this great post by Chipperback Democrat and you will feel better, guaranteed

(I was going to say close your eyes and imagine, but you couldn't read it then! :) )

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x7612913

[Drunken Irishman]

7. I don't know why you were so convinced Kerry would win.

He was losing in the electoral college and the average poll had him down 1 to 5 points.

[cynatnite]

12. I remember a lot of us here at DU being very confident...

Many folks, me included, did not believe the polls.

[scheming daemons]

24. And since the polls were proven correct in '04.... why do you doubt them now?

If anything... the polling "science" is better now.

[cynatnite]

31. I'm not doubting them now...I learned my lesson...

but I'm unwilling to take anything forgranted. I'd rather tread with care than get carried away.

[scheming daemons]

9. Your confidence was misplaced in 2004..... no supporting evidence

If you though Kerry was going to win, you certainly weren't looking at any of the polls.


Kerry only had 88 "solid" electoral votes at this point.... Obama has 260

Kerry was behind in Ohio and Florida.... Obama is ahead

Kerry was only ahead by 1 to 4 points in PA.... Obama is ahead by 7 to 12.

Kerry, who accepted public financing, was out of money.... Obama is swimming in it.



There is simply no comparison between 2004 and 2008.

[cynatnite]

15. A lot of us here really believed it then...

We didn't buy the polls were that accurate. It was certainly a different time here at DU.

[scheming daemons]

21. In other words.... DU in 2004 = FR in 2008.... THEY are the ones "not buying the polls" now....

And you know what? The polls were right then.... and they're right now.


2008 is to FR what 2004 was to DU. Those delusionals over there really BELIEVE they're going to win.... they believe in the Bradley Effect... they believe that the undecideds will all break toward McCain.

Just like DUers believed in 2004 that the undecideds would break to Kerry.



If you were confident in 2004, you were in a state of denial.

[cynatnite]

29. Another thing that bolstered our confidence then was the exit polling...

When it came out most everyone here at DU was ecstatic. That's another reason why the loss was a big kick to the gut.

Besides, I have no desire to go through that again, so I'm keeping my feet firmly on the ground this time.

[scheming daemons]

36. Early exit-polling is only half the story..... doesn't count all the people voting after work

[faithfulcitizen]

40. That was me. I wasn't confident UNTIL the exit polling. Even the rwer's thought it was over.

[faithfulcitizen]

37. It's called hope.

and now, it's ALL they have left.


To our credit though, Kerry was much closer than McCain.

[MessiahRp]

43. Kerry won the election

Don't let your opinion get in the way of the obvious election fraud in Ohio.

Rp

[scheming daemons]

44. Even with the fraud, the national POLLS were correct.... Bush won by 2% or so....

Voter fraud in Ohio might have changed the Electoral count... but the POLLS were correct nationally.

[ProSense]

49. How do you know there wasn't fraud nationally?

You're awful certain about this given all the evidence that the machines are switching votes to this day. In 2004, the phenomenon was newly exposed, and the media proclaimed everyone who suggested it occured was a left-wing lunatic.

[politicasista]

64. No, Kerry was lousy and boring. Obama is a saint

:sarcasm: :sarcasm:

[alcibiades_mystery]

51. Yes, and you were wrong...because there was no supporting evidence

This time, there is supporting evidence, and you're wrong to be concerned.

Conclusion? You're usually wrong.

[rockymountaindem]

10. Reflecting on the 2004 experience is not a good idea

Anybody who thought we were going to win that one was thinking with their heart instead of their head. We were behind almost the whole time, and although at the end it was close, you had to know that a lot of people were going to break toward Bush because of the security issue.

This year we're miles ahead, running a better campaign (no thanks to people like Shrum) and facing a dilapidated opposition which is completely out of tricks to play. I'm just waiting for it to become official because if I start partying now it'll just look strange.

[cynatnite]

19. It's because of that loss that I'm not taking anything forgranted...

of course, I know it's not the same as it is now.

[politicasista]

59. Thankfully he is on MSNBC n/t

[Smuckies]

11. I am with you.

[Connie_Corleone]

13. The electoral projection map clearly showed a very close race in 2004.

The map showed Bush beating Kerry by just a few points.

Not so this year.

[Cosmic Charlie]

14. Obama is not Kerry. He is actually leading in the polls.

[politicasista]

58. No, but Kerry has been his top surrogate. Something that

no one did for him in 04. The infrastructure and grassroots are stronger than 04 and the mood of the country is far more different than 00 and 04.

[bunnies]

17. You were sure Kerry would win?!

:wow: That blows my mind. All evidence pointed to the opposite.

[cynatnite]

22. Here at DU a lot of us were very confident he'd win in 2004. n/t

[bunnies]

50. I had a DU account back then. I dont remember it that way.

:shrug:

[IsItJustMe]

18. Did you ever stop to ask yourself why you are so fearful of something that you have absolutely

no control over

[stevenleser]

28. the past eight years maybe?

I understand the psychological aspects of what you are asking that person, but it is totally logical to be fearful if a maniac has a gun to your head and you have no control over whether said maniac will pull the trigger.

[mtnsnake]

23. The comparison to 2004 isn't even close

All I remember about that election was being frustrated by everything...frustrated by not being well ahead going into the election when we should have been trouncing Bush, frustrated by the swiftboaters, frustrated by our candidate not doing enough to address the charges of the swiftboaters, and frustrated by one of the weakest campaigns I've ever seen.

This campaign is so different that it's not comparable in any way, shape, or form. I'm not relaxing either, but I'm 10 times as confident with the way Obama is handling the situation than I was in 2004.

[cynatnite]

30. I agree Obama is doing ten times the job Kerry is...

I was disappointed Kerry didn't hit back like he should have.

[mtnsnake]

35. What I said was I'm 10 times as confident with the way Obama is running it as I was in 2004

but yes, now that you've said it, I'd have to agree he's doing ten times the job.

[politicasista]

61. I don't understand why people feel to need to slam Kerry to praise Obama

And Kerry did hit back, but the media buried his response. Where were the Dem surrogates?

Obama isn't the only one doing the hitting back. It's Biden, Kerry, etc. and Democrats that are doing it for him. Kerry is playing the role for Obama that no one played for him in 04. Plus, it was Kerry who gave Obama his time to shine on the national stage. Obama has Dems standing with him. Kerry had no one and McAuliffe's lousy infrastructure compared to Dean's excellent 50 state strategy.

This DU Research link proves that.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_oet&address=358x2555

[BlooInBloo]

33. We all remember 2004. We don't all try to bring everybody down...

with our shackled-to-the-past thinking.

[politicasista]

62. or slam Obama's best surrogate just to praise him

doesn't help Obama's cause. It makes him look bad.

[Chovexani]

66. Amen. This is a completely different campaign, and set of circumstances.

Which is good because I couldn't take another "zomg teh gayz lost us the election" round of horseshit on here.

[leftynyc]

34. I understand, however

Kerry was never even close to being in the position that Sen Obama is in. He had no lead in polls and he still almost beat the chimp.

In the meantime, try Xanax.

[4lbs]

38. I wasn't fully confident in Kerry's chances like I am with Obama's.

Kerry was several points behind Bush in Ohio, Florida, Virginia and Missouri, in late October. Also, Iowa and Pennsylvania were "toss-up" states. Kerry lost all those states except Pennsylvania.

This time, Obama leads McCain in all those states in late October.

[Dr Fate]

39. Join the club. Have a beer, turn off the tube and listen to your favorite CD.

Or if that doesnt work for you, use your cell phone minutes for Red-State phone banking- sounds like you need to either stay busy or take 5.

[politicasista]

67. That's sounds like a good idea

I don't understand the revisionist history. 2008 is not 2004.:shrug:

[donheld]

41. I'm on your side cynatnite

I'll feel sure of things when Barack has been certified the winner and not until.
If that makes me a bad, unbelieving, person then so be it. Yes, my nerves are a wreck.

[riqster]

46. I'm not so much concerned as I am wary

...which is a very rational way to feel. Working on Election Integrity, Voter Registration and other related issues helps me feel better, and might actually help my fellow voters in the end.

[BlueIdaho]

52. Into Action...

Forget the polls, the pundits, and the propaganda - the election is in our hands now. Its time for action - its time to GET OUT OUR VOTE. We don't have a minute to waste or a person to spare - its now or never gang. We need all hands on deck - knocking on doors, making calls, driving folks to the polls, doing anything and everything possible to bring this victory home. We stand on the brink of a watershed change in America and it depends on each and every one of us to do what we can.

YES WE CAN!

[Erin Elizabeth]

53. In 2004, I felt

that if Kerry won, it would be incredibly close. I also felt it was VERY possible that he would lose. I felt that way from about late August on, but still kept working.

This year, it doesn't seem to be the same at all. But I'm like you--I won't be happy until he is declared the winner.

[riqster]

54. I won't stop working until then

At which time, we will have bleedin' well EARNED a break.

[riqster]

55. Dup

D'oh!

[RiverStone]

57. Promise, this will help you feel better!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7641731&mesg_id=7642847

Side by side: Kerry in 04 and Obama today - both right about a week or so out.

Yea, I'm not celebrating yet either --- but this is NOT 2004; things are very different and Obama has the support of many more indie and converted rethug voters.

[renie408]

63. WHY were you sure Kerry would win? He never even had a lead in October of '04...

I remember '04, too. I remember desperately HOPING Kerry would win. I don't remember being 'sure'.

[politicasista]

65. I am cautiously optimstic, however,

unlike many responses in this thread, I don't feel to need to tear down a decent Democrat like Kerry just to praise Obama. It's makes Obama look bad.

I love Obama and I do agree he is running a better campaign (thank goodness without Shrum), but I also know that are big factors that are in his and our favor this time. Obama is smart and charismatic, but people are forgetting the mood of the country in 2008 compared to 2004. We are now in post Iraq Civil War, post Katrina, post economy in the toilet, post record home foreclosures, post massive job loss, etc. And the media is covering Obama's speeches and response to McCain's smears. And they, and Democrats are no longer afraid of Bush and Rove (they were strong in 04, now they are weak in 08).

Plus, Obama has Democrats standing with him, not siding with McCain, like many Dems refused to stand with Kerry and sided with the GOP. Kerry has been Obama's best surrogate and he is doing for Obama what no one did for him in 04. It's amazing that people continue to blame only him for 04 but never ask "Where was the media or surrogates?" Obama also has Dean's 50 state strategy, while Kerry was stuck with a poor McAuliffe infrastructure.

I think it's extremely unfair to Obama and Kerry to compare them and their campaigns. It is selfish and plays right into the hands of the GOP.

[Peacetrain]

68. A cup of green tea with honey....

(_)O... I understand..we are getting really close now.. I will be honest with you..this time in 2004, I knew we were not going to win.. I just knew it.. and this time I have the opposite feeling. That we are going to win, and win big. I am really pretty intuitive on this stuff. But till the votes are counted, well I think we all are on the edges of our seats a little. :)

[quaker bill]

69. I was concerned

I remember 2004 and I remember how certain I was that Kerry would lose. None of that stopped me from doing everything I could to get him elected.

This time I am confident, I feel quite sure Obama will win. None of this will stop me from doing everything I can to get Obama elected.

[Laurab]

70. I'm not so much concerned as NERVOUS.

And I think it's normal to be that way. I WAS certain Kerry would win, but, looking back, he didn't have the numbers Obama does. I still think he might have actually won, but it was close enough to steal.

This time around, it's a whole different scenario, and I'm confident but nervous. I know I've done all I can do for Obama - in fact today I found out I was successful in helping a friend in Florida make up her mind - she's voting for Obama. I've donated as much as I can - in fact more than I actually could, but this election is too important, and I just couldn't say "no".

I'm now just finding distractions to get myself through the next 6 days - movies, reading - anything that takes my mind off of politics for a while so I don't drive myself crazy. Of course I can't stay away from DU, but I don't check in as much.

Tuesday a.m. I will go and vote, and after that....well, I'll allow myself to be a nervous wreck until it's over! And then there will be some celebrating to do!