Bush's job-approval rating climbs back above 50% (Gallup)

[papau]

"No president who was at or above 50% at this point in an election year has lost"


http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/president/2004-08-12-bush-usat_x.htm

Bush's job-approval rating climbs back above 50%
By Judy Keen, USA TODAY
LAS VEGAS — President Bush's job-approval rating, a key indicator of an incumbent's chance of being re-elected, has turned upward, the Gallup Poll finds.

The share of Americans who say they approve of the job Bush is doing inched over the 50% mark to 51%. No president who was at or above 50% at this point in an election year has lost.

Matthew Dowd, Bush's campaign strategist, said, "It looks like the American public is not near as pessimistic as Sen. Kerry is."

Bush's job-approval rating hit its low point, 46%, in May.

The poll finds the presidential race essentially tied: Bush leads Kerry 48%-46% among likely voters; independent Ralph Nader has 3%. The difference between Bush and Kerry is within the poll's error margin of +/{ndash}4 percentage points. <snip>

[Feanorcurufinwe]

1. The people must be responding to all the good news

:eyes:

[lancdem]

3. Notice Matthew Dowd is quoted about this poll

Perhaps because it's the only one that's so pro-Bush?

[lancdem]

2. How convenient for the Bush campaign

Every other recent poll has Bush under 50 percent. It's sad to see Gallup become such a laughingstock.

BTW, someone also needs to tell Gallup no incumbent president who isn't ahead at this point has won since Truman.

[WI_DEM]

4. even if Bush had 51% approval which I doubt

that is hardly a resounding endorsement.

[Zynx]

5. Sure, if he had 51%. Gallup is a BS poll, long bereft of credibility.

[calico1]

7. How reliable was Gallup in 2000?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. "How Reliable Was Gallup in 2000?"

I report you decide....


On 10/27/2000 Gallup had Bush leading Gore 52% to 39%...

[calico1]

18. That's what I thought. Thanks.

I am not worried about this poll.

[yellowcanine]

27. That's right - I remember that! One of the darkest days of my life -

until election night when Fox declared * the winner.

[Walt Starr]

6. We knew Gallup was going to get a five day ride yesterday

It's the only poll positive for Bush and it will be the only poll touted by the media for the next five days.

I'm so glad we have a "Liberal" media.

:eyes:

[West Coast Democrat]

8. Aww...how sweet of Gallup to put * above 50%...

nobody's buying it.

[devinsgram]

9. Yada, yada, yada

This is the same polling group that went into Iraq, right after the invasion and did a poll, where they said Iraqi's were oh so happy to have the Americans there and things were so much better now that Saddam was gone. Didn't believe them then and don't believe them now. Even if * was in the 30's they would say he was at 50.

[tom_paine]

11. Exactly. The Sovietization of Amerikan Polling is complete

more subtle than the ham-fisted original, thus designed for a Formerly Free People like the Imperial Subjects of Amerika.

But Lying False Pravda just the same.

[Downtown Hound]

10. Gallup is the only poll

that shows Bush ahead or above 50%. And yet it is the only poll that is consistently quoted by the media whores. It's crap. It has always given a pro-Bush spin.

[rumguy]

12. Meanwhile Kerry is ahead in all the key states

There was an article yesterday that detailed this most important fact.

[flpoljunkie]

15. Bush job approval in Florida down to 44% in new Quinnipiac poll!

The university's poll found that 54 percent of Florida registered voters surveyed disapprove of the job Bush is doing, up 2 percentage points from the similar poll in late June. His approval rating slipped to 44 percent from 46 percent in June.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aiSzmYz.mM0Q&refer=us

[last_texas_dem]

13. WTF?

Sure, the poll may not be totally reliable... but I'm just marvelling at how public opinion of * could be taking any sort of upward trend right now. What would cause anyone who formally disapproved of the job *'s done to suddenly approve?

Anyway, it is the state-by-states that matter... even on Election Day. 2000 proved that... I'm still amazed at how our system allowed a man who lost by over half a million popular votes to become President by grabbing a state where he had a margin of loss that was close enough for him to steal. But it's better I don't even get started on that one...

[Reciprocity]

16. Its still within the margin of error.

The poll's results are based on telephone interviews conducted Aug. 9-11 with 1,017 U.S. adults. The margin of error is 3 percentage points.
http://washingtontimes.com/upi-breaking/20040813-101024-7612r.htm

[CaTeacher]

17. was this a poll of *'s family?

or maybe a poll of registered Repug voters?

[DaveinMD]

19. I wrote a note

to CNN asking them why every other poll is different than theirs and why their methodology is so messed up. No need to worry. The other polls are good.

[Democat]

20. Maybe this is another sign that Dems are not doing the best job

Without organized, strategic attacks, including paid ads, against Bush, we are not helping people have a negative impression of him.

Press releases are only worth so much.

[DaveinMD]

21. its only a sign

that the CNN poll is a major outlier. All the other polls have us up by 3-5 points.

[Democat]

23. Fair enough, but if any other polls show the same trend

Then we need to consider a more offensive strategy! :)

[DaveinMD]

26. but they don't

in fact things are going very well according to all the other polls and many of the state polls.

[ibegurpard]

22. This polling outfit is the only one that showed Bush ahead of Kerry

after the Democratic Convention. Keep that in mind.

[lancdem]

24. The horse-race numbers are the same as right after the convention

before the Swift Boat Liars had any publicity.

[indigo32]

25. I don't trust these polls at all

but whatta I know. I can't fathom why anybody voted for * in the first place. I'll take it as a reminder to keep working hard I guess.

[MissouriTeacher]

28. Screw Gallup...

Instead, look at how the electoral college is shaping up.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

A recent poll put Kerry ahead in Ohio. The last two Florida polls have shown Kerry ahead. If Kerry gets both these states, it's election over for Bush.

What's even better is that Kerry can still win without getting either OH or FL. Bush can't.

[robodruid]

29. Does not matter

It will end up a GOTV battle.

[lancdem]

30. I agree