Remember the story of Babe Ruth pointing out just where he was going to hit that home run? That's just how Obama's spreadsheet strikes me. Just take a look at his "predictions" leaked to the press right after Super Tuesday. Obama's got game.
Revisiting The Obama Delegate Spreadsheet Added by Mark Nickolas on Mar 31, 2008
Do you recall about two months when the Obama inadvertently (or not) released to a reporter an internal projection of delegates through the close of the primary season?
Well, I just went through the document and the projections were impressively accurate, though it was a tad bit on the pessimistic side. They projected winning the popular vote in 13 of the 17 contests after Super Tuesday until today (they actually won 14 of 17, winning Maine when they thought they'd narrowly lose). They also projected winning 456 if the 869 delegates at stake. In fact, they won 494.5 delegates.
So, what does the Obama spreadsheet project for the final 10 contests?
It believes Obama will win six of them, but will evenly split the delegates 283-283...
http://www.politicalbase.com/profile/Mark%20Nickolas/blog/&blogId=1701 I'm not sure who this blogger uses for his delegate count, but I've been going to
DemConWatch, which shows several sites' tallies, so my conclusions are just slightly rosier. Currently, AP shows Obama at 1414 pledged delegates, and DemConWatch has Obama's super delegate count at 216, for a total of 1630.
If the spreadsheet follows true -- and so far it's got an awesome track record -- Obama should achieve the majority of pledged delegates on May 20th when Oregon and Kentucky go to the polls, and hit 1697 pledged delegates by the end of the primaries, for a total of 1697 PD's + 216 SD's = 1913
IOW, if he gets another 111 super delegate endorsements between now and June 3rd -- that's 34% of the remaining 331 super D's -- this race is over.