Please, Stop Fooling Yourselves. As Of RIGHT NOW, This Race Is Again 50/50.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

After her amazing victories last night and the huge momentum she now has on her side, Hillary totally put herself not only back in the race, but in a position where I'd say they are totally tied as it relates to the nomination.

Some want to focus so badly on the delegate math, as if politics is inside a bubble and that's all that matters. Well that's not all that matters. In fact, it matters a bit less since neither candidate is likely to reach the magic number of 2024.

Now granted, his supporters have a right to tout that they have over 100 more delegates than she has, etc. That is definitely a powerful talking point for him going into the convention. But ya know what? As it relates to political viability and powerful talking points, the fact that Hillary has continued to win all the big states that primarily matter to the Dem party gives her in my opinion an even more powerful talking point. In fact, I think having that on her side actually NULLIFIES his 100+ delegate lead, as it relates to the competition. Yes, her winning those contests, her winning last night, his inability to close the deal, means that much. I really do think her having that on her side is every bit as influential as being able to state one has 100+ delegates more. That's why I consider this contest 50/50 now, and anyone thinking that Obama is a shoe in is being quite politically naive. Her winning Ohio by a 10% margin is huge. The 7% margins she won by with Democrats is huge. Obama may have more delegates going into the convention, but Hillary has the crown jewels.

So my take is that if Hillary can continue to be strong and continue having some momentum, and her and Obama start to trade contests but remain ultra competitive, that this will come down to one concept and one concept only. It won't be delegates, it won't be states won, it will come down to who is the most viable. That means who is winning the national polls. Who is ahead in the national polling between themselves, and who is up in the national polling with McCain. Whoever can claim those, will be the one standing at the convention. That's my take on it anyway. But don't be so narrow as to assume that the delegate math is the be all end all. Hillary having the big states as her claim is every single bit as influential and powerful as the claim of having slightly more delegates. In fact, to party insiders/SD's, her argument may be even more powerful. So stop all this "It's IMPOSSIBLE!" talk. It isn't. In fact, it's 50/50. Some were so cocky in their declarations of "I can't wait! Just 24 more hours! Then it's allllll over!", but obviously that didn't work out too well for them. It's not gonna be any day soon. It's gonna be a long ride from here.

But in the end of it all, I'm excited as hell. This has been an amazing primary, it has generated so much attention, has inspired so many, and is just one of the most exciting political events I've ever seen. We've got two awesome candidates going at it toe to toe and neck and neck. How much fun is this!!! And don't worry yourselves with being bloodied etc. No matter which one stands victorious, they will go on to thump the shit out or McCain in November. I will guarantee you that.

(disclaimer: I fully expect the vicious, knee jerk replies from some. But this post is more geared towards those who still can be reasonable in judgment and still have the ability to think before reacting).

[Dinger]

1. "Knee-Jerk" And Hell Yeah From Dinger!

:headbang: :applause: :loveya: :kick:

[awaysidetraveler]

46. There ain't no time for math or why, whoopee! And our party dies.

Hillary gained 1 delegate over Obama in Texas.

Texas Primary: Clinton 64/ Obama 60
Texas Caucus: Obama 35/ Clinton 32

Hillary gained 15 delegates over Obama in Ohio

Ohio Primary Clinton 77/ Obama 62/ Edwards 2

The Vermont and RI Primaries canceled one another out.

Vermont Primary: Obama 9/ Clinton 6

Rhode Island Primary: Clinton 12/Obama 9

Of course, the real problem is the reporting, which is rallying HRC's base for no purpose.

There simply aren't enough delegates left to yeild HRC a victory
in this closely fought election.

Clinton won, but it's a Pyrric victory. Now it's time for peace talks so that both sides of this debate don't get slaughtered
in the general election.

[bpeale]

102. the democratic party has been dieing longer than you've been voting fool!

[yardwork]

2. And, this incredible come-back after everyone had written her off says a lot about Hillary!

Hillary Clinton is a strong woman. I love it.

[ClassWarrior]

17. She came back from 20 points ahead to one or two.

What a comeback!!

:eyes:

NGU.

[Recursion]

3. How will she get enough delegates to pass him?

Seriously, how?

[ingac70]

8. With McCain already the Repub nom....

Dittoheads will have the free time to dick with our elections. She could pass Obama in delegate count because of it.

[DogPoundPup]

20. You need to do some more reading...here ya' go

http://slate.com/id/2185278/
If she averaged a 10-point win in every state going forward (including tonight's festivities), and if Obama pulls even with her in the superdelegate count this week, she would need to attract 57 more superdelegates than Obama by the convention. Considering she has a net loss of superdelegates over the last few weeks, that's going to take an even bigger turnaround than a comeback at the polls.

[lumberjack_jeff]

50. But wait a minute. I thought that it was Obama who has been bringing in those pubbies?

One of the biggest problems of this primary is our self-delusion that all those people voting in the primary intend to pull a D lever in November.

[ingac70]

52. .....

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/03/03/rush-limbaugh-urges-texas_n_89674.html

[lumberjack_jeff]

69. From CBS news

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/03/05/politics/main3907555.shtml
The Voters

Clinton's base came through for her strongly today, as it has at other times in the past. She enjoyed solid support among women, older voters, the less educated and less well-off, and those who consider themselves Democrats. Obama demonstrated his base support among the wealthier, African-Americans, independents and liberals, and the young.

In Ohio, Clinton won 58 percent of the vote of women, including the votes of 68 percent of white women. She also won 59 percent of the white male vote. Obama won black women and black men with 84 and 87 percent respectively. In Texas Clinton won 55 percent of women's votes, while Obama won 50 percent of the votes of men.

In Texas, Clinton won another important constituency - Latinos. Clinton won 67 percent of the Latino vote, compared to 31 percent for Obama.

[SusanaMontana41]

131. I don't think those who are pulling levers for Obama now

will abandon him in November. He's even appealing to Republicans here, in a very Red part of my Purple state. Those Republicans never would vote for Hillary, and say so.

[DogPoundPup]

15. Oh Boy, Theirs is not to seriously explain "how"

Their only concern is to 'do' and in so doing, kill the Democratic Party just like Lush Limballs wants 'em to.

[musicblind]

109. Did you not READ the OP?

He clearly stated that he does not feel it MATTERS if she gets enough delegates to pass him! Don't have a knee jerk reaction, give a thoughtful reply if you disagree.

[ORDem]

4. What amazing victories? She has 4 states less and didn't move the delegate math

at all. It ain't anywhere near 50/50 except in your dreams.

:dem:

[Lerkfish]

5. OMC again with the "agree with me or be called unable to think" argument

what a dip. that shows someone with such low self esteem that he has to PREEMPTIVELY insult people.


Now, as to your point: apparently math is not your strong suit. at this point, Obama is still ahead, even after the superdelegates.

Only a clinton supporter would view being behind as being even.

Now, I'll grant you, she had a good day yesterday and I'll give her credit for that.

[Name removed]

31. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Hepburn]

35. People like the OP represent a very good reason...

...for NOT supporting Hillary. The last thing I wish to do is be seen as being in the same camp as someone like this.

JMHO

[bigtree]

6. I think this gives her momentum

But, Obama still has to collapse in some way in the upcoming contests, especially in those contests he's expected to eke out even more delegates, if Sen. Clinton is to advance in any significant way toward the nomination. I really don't think anyone can put aside a 100 delegate deficit and expect SD's to stand with them in the end. I wouldn't have much respect for someone who did.

[Hawkeye-X]

7. Uh. 50/50 in terms of delegates? I don't think so!

Homey don't play that.

You can babble all you want. Obama still has a 140+ delegate lead which is about to increase later today when his blocs of SD's begins to endorse him to push Hillary out. She made NO progress last night.

Hawkeye-X

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

18. 53-47 in terms of pledged/S delegates.

Not 50-50.

[jpak]

36. Please don't fuck up a perfectly good piece of flamebait with facts

thank you

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

41. If You Paid Attention, You'd Find Those Facts Were Already In The OP.

You'd also find that thinking it comes down to that and that alone, is amazingly narrow in concept and quite politically naive.

[jpak]

44. What is the delegate count today???

Do tell...

:rofl:

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

57. Geez. Talk About Only One Gear. It's Like Talking To A Wall.

[jpak]

61. Math impaired much???

:rofl:

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

68. Here:

[jpak]

107. LOL!!!!11

:rofl:

[Lerkfish]

75. why do you have to insult everyone?

really

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

78. Sorry, But That's Not 'Everyone'. Get A Grip.

[Lerkfish]

81. ok, why do you have to insult ANYONE?

why be such a jerk?

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

83. Nothing Wrong With Telling Somebody They're Being Closed Minded When They Are.

Get a grip please. :hi:

[Lerkfish]

86. LOL!

I rest my case.

[jpak]

108. What is the "get a grip" delegate count today???

:evilgrin:

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

114. Here:

[jpak]

121. If you grip that - you get crumbs

and crumbs is all your candidate got yesterday...

:rofl:

[musicblind]

117. I know

it seems like some Obama supporters are impaired with the ability to read. Personally, just give up on the individuals on here that can't think past "stage one". Consider it weeding the conversation population. The OP was very clear that he is addressing an idea that has nothing to do with delegates, yet the Obama supporters cannot address that issue. Because the only thing they have to hide behind is an increasingly irrelevant 100 pledged delegate lead. They like to pretend like that this lead means superdelegates MUST vote for Obama just like they enjoyed pretending that Clinton was going to lose Texas.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

59. You said 50-50. I pointed out that it's really 53-47.

Including the other mumbo jumbo is just fantasy.

You believe that HRC can win without the pledged delegate lead. I disagree.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

43. Depending on how it plays out, could be 54-46.

The math is very close and I don't want to pull out my protractor to measure the angles; so I gave Hillary the benefit of the doubt.

[ClassWarrior]

9. No, it's Seven-Up.

Well, actually more than 150-Up.

NGU.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

10. sure,if by 50-50 you mean Obama's still got a whopping delegate lead that's going to widen this week

[Kittycat]

11. Actually - she's still losing.

By a margin that's impossible for her to catch in pledged delegates. Supers will follow the will of the people and support the PDs.

[Justyce]

12. Re: your last sentence...

you've disenfranchised a large number of posters on this site -- LOL ;)

[stahbrett]

13. My take - the superdelegates will not overule the pledged delegates (nt)

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

27. I Want The SD's To Think About What's Best For The GE.

If they just default to a stance of "let's not think. We should just go with how the pledged delegates fall", then they should be done away with completely. What would their point be? The whole point of having them is to make an educated and best for the party decision when a tough one needs to be made. If their role was just to go with the pledges, then they serve no purpose in existence. If they choose Obama, it should be because as party insiders they feel he's the best choice going into November. That's their role, and that's why they're there. Taking that decision making process away from them renders them moot, and I'm not prepared at this point to believe they want to be viewed as irrelevant. They were put in place for a reason, and I fully expect that reason to be part of this.

[ClassWarrior]

32. They should be done away with. They're elitist. And they don't have crystal balls.

NGU.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

39. So Should Caucuses.

But for this election, they are here, as are the SD's. As long as the SD concept exists, they should do what they're designed to do.

[ClassWarrior]

45. I see. Admit it's a damaging rule, but exploit it any way for one's own...

...political advantage. With Dems like these, who needs Rape-Publicans?

NGU.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

58. Much Like The Caucuses.

Please, stop being such a hypocrite.

If we're going by a "that's the way the rules are, should've done somethin about it before" mentality, then the SD's are part of that as well. The SD's exist for a reason. It really is that simple.

[ClassWarrior]

73. Ahhh, change the subject. And I'm the hypocrite?

:rofl:

NGU.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

80. Same Subject, And Yes, You Are.

:hi:

[ClassWarrior]

92. "I Want The SD's To Think About What's Best For The GE."

Show me where the word "caucus" appears in that post. :hi:

NGU.

[stahbrett]

116. Agreed - they should be done away with completely

Don't get me wrong - I'm not saying that the SDs HAVE to vote for the pledged delegate leader. I'm simply saying that I don't see them NOT doing so.

The most loyal Democratic voters out there are African Americans, and they're voting overwhelmingly for Obama. To have a few hundred superdelegates go against Obama's lead in pledged delegates will be seen as a slap in the face to his supporters, including the African American supporters. It would be saying in effect, "Well, you know all of those elections that you've been voting in this year? We're not going to really count those results. Instead, we're going to hand the nomination over to the candidate that we thought going into the election was going to win it. Better luck next time!"

[underpants]

14. Fooling who? Last night cemented that she can't win

She can't get the delegates for nomination without flipping existing Obama delegates

there is no way she is going to ever get ahead in the vote count

She can hope to seat Michigan and Florida but we all know how misrepresentative that would be

Pleeeease

She is just trying to get to Denver and then she and Bill can put the screws to everyone
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=103&topic_id=342820&mesg_id=342820

[MNDemNY]

89. But she will win.

[tridim]

135. Have you seen "The Decline of Western Civilization Part II" by chance?

[The_Casual_Observer]

16. Obama's new message, it's all about counts. Except that the counts don't count

anymore. It's all about who wins PA.

[1awake]

19. Gotta disagree with you OMC,

It's not 50/50... yet. Hillary by all rights did a wonderful job last night and has a chance to close the gap between now and the convention. Delegates WILL count unless she can chip away to such an extent that they are in a virtual tie (they are not yet). If this happens.. even if Obama is leading by 25 or so, THEN I think what you say could be true. And.. if it becomes a brokered convention, even though I am an Obama supporter.. I think the best thing in the long run for the party would be a Hillary-Obama ticket.

[SteppingRazor]

21. As a reasonable Obama supporter with the ability to think...

I hear what you're saying, but I do find some logical fault in the statement that Hillary should get the nomination because she won California and New York, "big states that primarily matter to the Dem party," as you put it. Her wins in the primary say nothing about the likelihood (or, I grant you, not-so-likelihood) of Obama winning those states against McCain in the general election.

Of course, this becomes more meaningful when we talk about swing states like Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania (which, like the previous two, will almost certainly be a win for Hillary), but when you measure it up against national polling, as of now, it is Obama, not Hillary, who does better against McCain (Source: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html).

And, you have to remember, it's not just a lead in pledged delegates. It's a lead in popular vote, a lead in states won, a huge lead in new voters brought into the fold (many of which, regrettably, are infatuated with the candidate and not the party, and so I worry about their retention rate should Hillary win the nomination).

If it does come down to electability, as you suggest (and I grant you that it very well may), I think Obama is still the best option.

[musicblind]

123. thank you for giving

a thought out response to the OP rather than the knee jerk reactions many here have given before you. Nice to see that, even if you disagree with the OP, you took the time to rationally explain why.

[SteppingRazor]

126. I'm a big fan of civility -- at least among people who share my political philosophy.

If you must play smashmouth politics, save it for that dour old Strangelovian hack the Republicans are running.

[Apollo11]

22. Obama has "over 100 more delegates" = "talking point"?!

This has to be one of the best pro-Hillary posts I have seen until now! B-)

I do kind of agree that if Hillary can continue to win the popular vote in significant states, then most superdelegates will vote for whichever candidate they think has the best chance against John McCain.

Even if it's not the candidate who has won the most pledged delgates in primaries and caucuses.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

33. I Mean Talking Point As It Relates To Bartering.

It may get to a point where each of them has to make a case. That's one of his most powerful talking points to use towards his argument of why he should be the nominee. But I just think that her argument of the big states she's one, is just as powerful of one.

[ProSense]

23. Reminds me of this:

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

34. Toon's A Bit Outdated.

Since then, the soldier has put its arms and legs back on, stood up, and thrown a rock at the back of Obama's head and yelled out "Hey! Doofus! Turn around!"

[ProSense]

38. Nothing changed. Hillary still as behind as she was before yesterday. n/t

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

42. If That's What Makes Ya Feel Better Goin To Sleep At Night, Have At It!

:hi:

[Lerkfish]

53. hey, we can't sleep, there's a red phone ringing at 3 am!

and obama is the only qualified to answer it!

LOL

[Lerkfish]

51. hey, I checked the internet and found out where you lived!

[susankh4]

49. That cartoon is HILARIOUS!

And that's from a Hillarian.

Witness: the resurrection now! And be amazed!!

[Upton]

24. Hillary will lose to McCain

because the only way she can win the nomination is to steal it through the super delegates. That would totally fracture the party, disenfranchising millions of voters. In particularly black voters, a must have constituency for any Democratic candidate. How can Hillary hope to gain their votes?

[John Q. Citizen]

25. What was amazing is that Hill managed to hold on given her eroded support .

from just a few weeks ago.

She did that by fear mongering, photo shopping the skin tone of her opponent, running on 9/11, and smearing.

Why is that amazing?

[JimGinPA]

26. Yeah, Got To Give Her Credit For Surging From A 20 Point Lead To Barely Holding On...

Although she didn't gain any ground in delegates. But perception is everything for her base.

[slick8790]

28. 12-3 = 3-12? Not by my count. n/t

[Milo_Bloom]

29. Actually, it is all over.

Because of her inability to hold onto her leads in Ohio and Texas, she is now mathematically eliminated.

If this were a sports season, Obama would have the z- next to his name in the standings, because Clinton is now incapable of closing the gap.

[Hepburn]

30. I understand Sylvan offers a course in...

..remedial math. I suggest you take it because there is no way your Goldwater Girl Queen is at 50/50.

Hint: Less than half does NOT equal half.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

37. I'm Amazed At how Many Are So Closed Minded That At The End Of The OP, All They Could Muster Is

"it's all about the pledged delegates!".

Pssssttt... C'mere..... Got a secret for ya..... It isn't.

[backscatter712]

40. That's right. You need magical faerie dust to overcome the math.

[Lerkfish]

54. oooh. OMC's next pathetic attack "you're close minded"

its funny how stating facts to you is "close minded"

ahh, the irony.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

62. It Was Extremely Closed Minded.

No irony whatsoever. Believing that the only thing in the world that matters is current pledged delegate counts, is closed minded on its face, and amazingly naive.

[Lerkfish]

65. so here's how everythign shakes out for you.

OMC vs. everyone else.
and everyone else is closeminded, can't think straight, irrational, etc.

have I got that right?

its not irony, its projection.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

77. Wrong.

People can disagree just fine. But if someone thinks for a second that pledged delegate count is the be all end all, and all that matters, then they are inarguably being closed minded, and naive to boot. There is not a thing wrong with calling it what it is.

[Lerkfish]

79. actually, there IS something wrong with insults and namecalling

but that's ok, it only reflects badly on you.

I see no reason why you cannot state your case, and simply disagree with people without being such an asshole about it.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

82. I Haven't Called Anyone Names, Though You Have.

They are inarguably being closed minded. That's not an insult or namecalling, it's observational fact.

[Lerkfish]

84. a fact in your mind only.

[Raejeanowl]

56. Anything Can Happen On The Road To The Convention

Plenty can happen AT the convention, and it could favor either candidate.

Some actually seem to think we have superdelegates for no good reason except to act as an echo-chamber for the popular vote.

Obama supporters have been crowing for weeks, "It's over, it's over, she has to know it's over," and clearly, it wasn't.

OMC is reminding us of that, for which I sincerely thank him.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

63. Thanks. That's Exactly What I'm Saying.

[rodeodance]

67. I thank him also and for you post.

[Hawkeye-X]

60. It is. And that's what counts.

Come on. Them's the Democratic Party Rules, not your sick mind rules.

Hawkeye-X

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

72. The Rules Go In My Favor, Not Yours.

It is not all about pledged delegates. Not only is it in the rules that THEY can even change their votes, but it is in the rules that we have a ton of superdelegates who have a say in the nomination as well.

Please, try and open your mind just a little. It won't hurt, I promise.

[Hawkeye-X]

111. My mind is open as it can be. I just DONT see any way for Hillary to win...

the only way she can win now if she and Bill twists arms and forces SD's to go to her way, which is not going to happen. Many, nay, thousands of posts were made about this scenario and asked if there was a way for Hillary to win. Sadly, there isn't. She just hit a major wall, and did not make a dent in the delegate count last night, thus whatever net gain she got last night will be wiped way by the ignored Mississippi and Wyoming primaries next week while Hillary targets PA, and Obama will win 60-40 or so on both states, negating the gains she made tonight.

Brick wall, I'm telling you, right now it's watching Hillary hit a brick wall and then backing up, then running into the same brick wall, ad infinitum.

Hawkeye-X

[RoadRage]

87. Actually.. it is all about pledged delegates.

You're right.. the super-d's can flip to Clinton and give her the nomination. And then sit back and watch as 70% of Obama supporters sit at home in November fuming that one of their OWN stole the election from them this time - not even a Republican. I would be one of those voters.. as would everyone who voted for Obama. Not one person I caucused with will vote for her if she wins the primary. Some will vote McCain (my more central friends who were stretching to vote Obama in the first place).. and I'll just skip it. I have no problem voting for her if she wins it fair & square.. even with a bit of mud slinging. But, having the popular vote & more states on his side.. as well as more delegates before the politicized Super Delegates hand it over to Clinton.. well that just eeks of the exact back-handed politics we despise Bush for.

So, yes, Clinton could feasibly still win the Primary.. but at the cost of absolutely NOT winning the General Election. Evidently she & McCain are good friends.. i suppose this is about the best gift she could give him... after all, she would rather see McCain win over Obama - and this scenario takes it that way.

[October]

47. Still too close to call

I well recall when Clinton had more delegates (or was said to have had) there were many threads here at DU calling to change the delegate rules. "Should delegates decide elections?" was the hew and cry. Now that Obama has more delegates, we see a bit of parsing from those same folks, "Well, she won big states, but he has more delegates." There's no way to argue effectively because it's been back-and-forth for months, and no matter who you're cheering for -- you end up having to eat a little crow. We Dems just don't march in lockstep like the GOP. We are anything but organized or unified. It's annoying, but it's Still, I hope some of the ugliness ceases as we near the Democratic Convention.

I'm committed to voting for the Democratic nominee.

Neither candidate thrills me because neither is progressive enough for my tastes. They're very similar in their voting records. And if it comes down to personality, I'll try to overlook his smug condescension, as well as her overzealous laugh. Frankly, I'd enjoy a conversation over a glass of wine with either one of them.

Living in PA, I'm not used to my "primary" voice counting so much. This year, well, I'm just shocked it's still neck-and-neck at this stage of the race. I know who I am leaning toward, but I'm not about to BASH the opponent. We're all Dems here.

[Orsino]

48. Um, no.

We all understand that being ahead in the delegate count means something. If this race goes on to be brokered at the convention, whoever's ahead will still have a powerful advantage. You've acknowledged that point, and I simply disagree that the "big state" qualifier "nullifies" it. I agree that the race is still open, at least theoretically, and I haven't understood why each camp has demanded an end to it when perceived as "ahead." Heck, I still want to know what's going to happen with Michigan and Florida, and was only half kidding when I postulated a Supreme Court case.

We've also seen along that way that whoever is behind gets dogged with the question "are you going to drop out?" "Why aren't you dropping out?" "For the good of the Party, you must drop out." Obama weathered that, and recently it's been Clinton's turn to do so.

But it isn't a 50-50 race, at least in the public's perception.

[October]

106. I disagree

I don't feel Obama has "weathered" much of anything yet.

Hillary has.

He has more delegates, but she's winning big states. States that matter for the general election when we're up against McCain.

[Orsino]

125. See, the size of the states she won has seemed irrelevant to the GE...

...unless we postulate that they're in great danger of going to McCain. I don't see Mr. 43.5 as running away with the GE.

A Democrat's going to win in November.

[Nederland]

55. Translation

When Obama wins 12 in a row momentum means nothing, but when Hillary wins 3 out of 4 and all of a sudden momentum means everything.

Ok...

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

66. His 12 In A Row Meant Everything.

Without them, he'd be nothing but an afterthought at this point. So yeah, I'd say those 12 in a row were pretty huge.

[rodeodance]

64. REC

[superkia]

70. You should listen to some of the talk radio shows, all of the callers...

were talking about the mass amount of people that took limbaughs advice and crossed lines to vote for Clinton because they feel she is an easy target. They were all laughing at how she thinks she had some great victory, while they watch our party being destroyed by a campaign of nastiness. What they seem to miss is, Clinton is the elites number one choice and she will destroy the party if she cant be the chosen one so that her elite friends can have their second choice...McCain. Either way all of this just equals the American people being the losers. Even the idiots that crossed lines don't understand that the one they hate and think they can beat, is the elites first choice and if nominated...WILL WIN!


I wouldn't care if Clinton and Obama battled to the end, its just the way that Clinton is going at it, she is dividing the democratic voters and angering people. Divide and conquer, it has been the elites plan all along and most of us are too ignorant to see it.

Together we stand, divided we fall. Looks like the American people will be falling soon...mark my words. Our future doesn't look so bright but hey, its only our children that will suffer, who cares as long as MY team wins,right! :sarcasm:


Welcome to America where we don't vote for whats best for us, we just play political games like our politicians. Are we one of the most ignorant countries in the world when it comes to what is happening to us in our country? At least the other countries with dictators and such, know what is happening to them, we for some reason are just blind or stupid. Sad situation!

[rodeodance]

76. Those RW people get their fix chatting amonst themselves. Hillary is strong

[superkia]

90. I dont know what all of the stations were, I was waiting for my...

and scanning through the AM stations. I don't think all of the AM stations are RW but they could be I guess?

[rodeodance]

104. I would hate to think they were progressive stations with talk like that!

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

85. You Need To Listen To Different Radio Shows Then.

Hey, have you checked the numbers of how republicans voted yesterday? Just curious. :hi:

[superkia]

94. I posted above, I was scanning through AM stations looking for...

shows talking politics while I waited for my mother. If I'm in my car driving, I always listen to music but when I take my mother places, we talk and the radio is down and while she is in the doctors office I will listen to political stuff if primaries have taken place or are about to, just to here what others are talking about. I didn't catch any numbers on republican voters. Where can I see those numbers?

[casus belli]

96. Your post assumes

that everyone answered the question of R or D honestly. Chances are, if they were just voting to disrupt, they probably weren't all honest about their political affiliation.

"I'm here to rob the store, could you point me in the direction of the cash register?"

[superkia]

118. Good point if that is how it works there? I dont know how all states...

work when it comes to their voting rules.

[mainegreen]

71. But, but, but only OBAMA can use the momentum argument!

Teh math says she only has a one in four chance, and that's a clear statistical impossibility!

:D

[crawfish]

74. Obviously, negative campaigning works.

I expect to see similar tricks coming out of the Obama camp in the next few weeks.

Hopefully, I won't be so disgusted come election time that I refuse to vote.

[Spiffarino]

88. This isn't fun

Hillary made a good showing last night and bully for her. The problem is that she did it by damaging the likely nominee.

Since the goal of the Clinton camp appears to be win at all costs, there will be more damage to come. If Barack Obama decides to use "kitchen sink" tactics as well, expect huge amounts of damage to both candidates.

This was a win for Hillary Clinton. It may turn out to be a much bigger win for McCain.

[jefferson_dem]

91. Stop fibbing. It is NOT 50/50. She netted 8-12 delegates, still leaving her > 100 behind.

That is not tied, no matter how many times you say it.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

93. Yay! Another Knee Jerk Closed Minded Reply!

:boring:

[casus belli]

98. What exactly is knee-jerk about pointing out the fallacies

with the OP's "math"? She has a very uphill battle to make up the deficit, that's just the reality of the situation.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

99. There Was No Fallacy. In Fact, I Stated That Fact Quite Readily About The Pledges.

After reading the OP and the information it contains, to have a response that is SOLELY limited in thought to delegate count only, is quite knee jerk and closed minded. Seriously.

[casus belli]

122. The fallacy is...

that it implies that the race is dead even. Even if you don't look at pedged delegates at all (which is silly considering they are the primary factor in deciding the race) he still has a very substantial lead in the popular vote total. Since this race WILL come down to super-delegates if allowed to go to the convention, it's going to be very hard to persuade the remaining super-delegates to go to Hillary when there exists such a clear advantage in delegates and popular vote by Obama.

It WILL be close, don't get me wrong, but to imply that last night's results make any real difference in the math isn't accurate.

[musicblind]

127. The OP's math was just fine

he did not claim that the delegates were 50/50. He claimed their over all chance of taking the nomination were 50/50 and then made the case why he does not feel that pledged delegates will matter that much to superdelegates. Thus his belief is that they are 50/50 in their CHANCE to win the nomination.

People pointing out the delegate count in response is either A.) Knee Jerk or B.) They are lazy and didn't read the entire post before replying.

[jefferson_dem]

110. Nope. This is a race for delegates. Nothing else matters. Period.

To offer up some other arbitrary criterion now in order to argue that it's a 50/50 race is flawed reasoning on its face. If we're really concerned about electability in November, you would be urging Hillary to step aside and start supporting the eventual nominee.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

115. It Is A Race For The Nomination. No Delegates Are Ever Written In Stone.

If she goes into the convention with the states she's won and any future big states (PA), at the time still has the momentum on her side, and if she can get the national polls to swing her way, then she has an absolute chance at becoming the nominee.

[InvisibleTouch]

95. You're more optimistic than I am.

I think it's a stretch to say the race is back to 50/50 - I want to be guarded about getting my hopes up too much - but Hillary is definitely back in the running with a good shot at the victory. A lot can still happen in the next few weeks, and we're surely still in for some surprises.

[paulk]

97. what many seem to forget is that this whole exercise isn't about

winning the nomination - it's about winning the general election.

Hillary - even if she's still behind in delegates - will have the stronger hand there when the convention roles around. She's won the big states - the one's we need in the GE - most of the big primaries - while Obama has picked up many of his delegates in caucuses and states where a narrow demographic benefited him.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

100. E X A C T L Y.

Thank you.

[jefferson_dem]

119. Ah...I see.

You're making the case that the "Superdelegates" should consider overturning the will of rank-in-file Democratic voters and caucusers...in order to install Hillary as the nominee...if need be.

No thanks. Not if we wish to remain the "democratic" Party.

[casus belli]

103. Inaccurate...

Obama has won many of the contests he's won by eating into Hillary's demographic in most of the last 12 contests he's won. He's also shown an appeal across a wider demographic than Hillary. If anything, her victories prove that she has the much more narrow appeal, which is why she can only pull off states with a large number of voters in her core demographic, which is women voters, white males without college degrees, and voters >60. In the states Obama has won, he's cut significantly into those groups as well as doing well with his core demographic which is black voters, college-educated white males, and younger voters.

[paulk]

124. "larger number of voters"

the states with the larger number of voters are the states that give the best representation of what the GE will look like. You have it exactly backwards. Caucuses with a 6% average turnout (and even that is above average) don't show anything.

Another thing - Hillary's base of voters older than 60 and women are traditionally the demographic that shows up on election day.

Obama's isn't.

[casus belli]

128. You may stick to your "traditional" outlook if you wish...

but I think there is no legitimate argument you can make that says this is an election cycle like any other that will follow the same generalities that previous GEs have followed. To do so, you would have to completely ignore the record turnout of primary voters in nearly every contest that we've had, and assume that every single one of those voters have no intention of voting in the GE. I think that's a self-defeating assumption.

[thewiseguy]

101. 50/50?

Look at the delegate count. I did not see you making threads like this when she was losing 11 straight and as soon as she wins in Ohio a state where she was suppose to win everything is 50/50 again? LOOOOOL

[gravity]

105. You are the one fooling yourself

This is not a 50/50 chance that she will win it. More like 10/90 at best.

The only way she can pull it off is if she can convince enough super delegates to overturn the decision of the pledge delegates. This will not happen, because it will destroy the party.

Hillary won Ohio and RI which already was heavily favored to her. She also squeaked by Texas which she had an advantage going into that race. I wouldn't call this an upset.

[musicblind]

130. "I wouldn't call this an upset."

Well, the rest of the world does.

Or at least the majority mixed in with the MSM.

[knixphan]

112. Donate.

Obama's donors always speak loudest after Hill throws a barrage of kitchen sinks at him.

Now's the time again.

Sinks thrown.

Obama supporters answer now.

Donate.

http://www.barackobama.com/index.php

[Lannigan]

133. Donate 2

And Hillary's do no matter what...kitchen sinks or not.

Donate to Hillary - I did again this morning.

https://contribute.hillaryclinton.com

[Levgreee]

113. Hillary won Ohio and Rhode Island, Lost Vermont, and slightly won(essentially tied) in Texas

So that is 2 states where a strong message was sent. In opposition to the 12 states Obama won by large margins.

Now, how exactly has Clinton sent a strong message?

[Poll_Blind]

120. Keep tossing those posts into the wishing well...let me know if one floats back up. n/t

4) Now Answer My OP in Context!

PB

[Political Heretic]

129. It will need to be closer in delegates... but you could be right.

I think if there is a triple digit delegate gap, its going to matter more than you think it will matter.

On the other hand, if it narrows by then... maybe under 50 or so... then I think you might be right.

[Elspeth]

132. OMC has made some good points. This nomination will end up being decided at the convention

And Hillary has two good arguments: She's won the large states and the traditional working class Democratic base.

Obama will have more delegates and have support among what used to be called the limousine liberals and what I would call the BMW liberals (college educated, making good money) and their children (in college). The only really working class part of his base is from the African American votes, which he dominates.

It will be a hell of a convention and a decision that makes people mad, no matter who wins the nomination.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

134. Yup. I Think No Matter What, We're Staring At A Clinton/Obama Ticket Or Obama/Hillary Ticket.

I think all that needs to be decided is who should be the one on top. I think by convention time, Hillary may very well have the stronger case to make.