RCP average now has Clinton with 9.8% lead nationally and gaining

[ruggerson]

And any post-debate numbers are showing spikes for Hillary.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html

[NJSecularist]

1. National polls mean nothing

National polls poll states that are not going to be participating on Super Tuesday.

This will be a state by state race.

[ruggerson]

2. You keep telling yourself that

[NJSecularist]

6. And when this race becomes a dead heat after Super Tuesday

will you be dissapointed?

That is the reality of national polls. They poll states that aren't going to be polling on Super Tuesday.

[neutron]

16. That is what MSM wants. That is why they are all bashing Hillary

Their viewership quadruples in a tight election. They are fanning the flames
to keep you watching.
Since we dropped Cable yesterday, we won't be accomodating them.

[Seen the light]

9. NJSecularist is right

Clinton has been up in EVERY single one of those 100 polls or so on that site. If that was an accurate assessment of the race, then this would be a blowout Clinton race right?

[Kittycat]

11. It's true. Have you been tracking the state by state results?

Look at the big states, Obama is tightening - and in many of the smaller ones he's leading. Since the dems aren't winner take all - it's likely most of those states will end up split evenly, or close to in in regards to delegates. One key difference, in IL he's widening the gap between them, and in NYC, he's tightening it. There's a greater chance that he'll come in close to HRC in her home sate, but still blow her out in his.

[Alexander]

15. Delegates determine the winner. You must be new to politics.

Ask Al Gore what good the popular vote ever did for him.

[sunonmars]

3. oh really, obama supporters have been going nuts over the last few days about them

[Dogmudgeon]

5. Ahh ... an Obama supporter!

:evilgrin:

Seriously, dude(-ette), you're right. But the Obama folks have been living on the polls for weeks now. There is some justification in doing that, but it was inevitable that there would be a reversal.

--p!

[robbedvoter]

20. They do - as a snapshot - and where there's a multi-state primary like this

[KennedyGuy]

4. Don't you know..the only reliable polls are the one showing an Obama lead..

not many of them, I'll grant you..but they are the only ones that count.

[goldcanyonaz]

Anthing other than and Obama lead is an outlier. DUH!

[Drunken Irishman]

13. Wait, weren't you the guy badmouthing Gallup and Rasmussen?

I'm confused, Hillary supporters told us these polls didn't mean anything because Gallup sucked and Rasmussen was a right-wing polling company...but now they count?

Look, I'm an Obama supporter and I love these polls. One day does not a trend make. If Clinton gains tomorrow, then I'll start taking notice. However, the trend clearly still favors Obama, which is fine by me. :)

[UALRBSofL]

29. I said polls aren't accurate this voting cycle but Rasmussen would be the closest

Just my opinion.

[Drunken Irishman]

34. This wasn't to you.

I feel Rasmussen will be the closest and I think this is just an uptick in support and nothing more. The reason Obama fans were touting polls is that they showed Obama gaining EVERY DAY most of the past few, not just once. There have been times throughout the past week where Clinton gained a point or two and Obama stayed where he currently is. But, in the end, the trend returned to Obama gaining one or two more points on average.

Hillary fans are really going out on a limb here, because this is only ONE DAY'S WORTH of a trend. With the margin of error, it's entirely possible for there to be a 2 or 3 point bump for just one day. It does not, however, show an increased trend for Hillary, just that she polled better than Obama one day and that can and probably will change by tomorrow.

[LVjinx]

46. Actually

Rasmussen has been terrible this cycle. Even Fox News has been twice as accurate, and that's sad. Someone posted a summary, and I saved the link: http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/01/26/2008-presidential-primary-pollster-report-card-through-012608

[Cameron27]

7. K&R

"And any post-debate numbers are showing spikes for Hillary."

[AlFromDem]

8. Obama should just quit

These polls are damaging. Let this be a lesson to upstart young men like him: WAIT YOUR TURN.

[Adelante]

18. Welcome to DU, AlFromDem

:hi:

[paulk]

52. Goodbye from DU, AlFromDem

[TheDeathadder]

10. Go Clinton

[AGirl]

12. *wait your turn, young man* should be HIllary's campaign slogan.

[KennedyGuy]

14. sound about right

[AlFromDem]

19. I will never regain respect for Senator Obama.

This was something Hillary waited patiently for upward of 7 years. How dare he step in like this. HOW DARE THIS UPSTART.

[KennedyGuy]

you are really starting to make sense...

[Name removed]

27. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Name removed]

30. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[LittleClarkie]

39. Then alert on them. Not cool to be shouting "troll! troll!" at people when you can't know for sure

Kennedyguy seems cool enough. And he's trying to be civil.

Come on guys, we're better than this... I hope.

[MadBadger]

22. Guessing you forgot the sarcasm?

[Name removed]

23. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[NJSecularist]

24. So inevitability is the only reason Hillary deserves this race?

[Alexander]

25. Yeah, how dare he threaten St. Hillary's coronation.

Here, have some more Kool-Aid.

[AlFromDem]

28. The only ones who drink the Kool-Aid are those fooled by this huckster's

waxing poetic on "the politics of hope". Buzzwords to lull the masses into a sleep so he can legalize marijuana and chat with Ahmadinejad. NOT American values and WAY out of the mainstream...he is unelectable. Only Hillary provides the cool, reflective look on policy matters that they deserve.

[Name removed]

32. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[AlFromDem]

33. Because I support Hillary? Ludicrous.

She is a Democrat and I support her. That does not make me a troll. Jebus.

[MonkeyFunk]

48. No

what makes your behavior appear trollish is the constant and silly parroting of what you think a caricature of a Clinton supporter would say.

[LittleClarkie]

41. They are too close together in policy for you to be having such a fit about the man

To attack alot of his policy is to attack hers.

And exactly what is that Ahmadinejad crack about? Are you suggesting he is not a true American? Are you pulling out the ludicrous Muslim meme?

[tigereye]

44. have you forgotten "the Man From Hope?"

um, that was CLlinton, as I recall.


Hope is something to be desired and not a bad orientation.

[LittleClarkie]

38. "It's their turn" gave the Republican Party Bob Dole. Who cares if it's someone's "turn"

I'm not voting based on who's "turn" it is. Issues, and positions, and who the person is, matter more than who's damned turn it is.

Sorry, she'll have to work for the nomination. If she can't handle the "upstart" then she won't be much use in the general.

[AlFromDem]

49. Hillary's turn is one component of many you should take into account

Don't dismiss it out of hand. Seniority counts. Experience counts.

[MonkeyFunk]

47. The mods must be sleeping in today

god, you're so obvious.

[Adelante]

50. Awake

[MonkeyFunk]

51. LOL

Thanks, Wesdem. I know you guys always get to it - I try to reassure the people who scream "WHERE ARE THE MODS?!" after 5 minutes.

[VotesForWomen]

40. well, obama isn't really ready for prime time, so maybe he *should* wait. nt

[Tom Strong]

17. Eight million people watched that debate and she OWNED his ass in it. So, no surprise. n/t

[Drunken Irishman]

21. lol

[GalleryGod]

WAR VOTES,Tommy Boy

I bet you never were in the service,right?

[CatnHat]

37. Got that right

:applause: :applause: :applause:

[LittleClarkie]

42. In your humble opinion of course

Other's mileage may vary. Stating opinion as if it were fact doesn't make it true.

[cali]

26. I don't think there's any doubt that Hillary stemmed

Obama's momentum and and ramped up her own.

[UALRBSofL]

35. But you have to remember

This isn't a popularity contest, it's a delegate contest. So, if she by chance won the popularity doesn't mean she will win the delegates.

[cobalt1999]

31. The reaction to a very busy week should start showing up in the polls.

Clinton's Florida win.
Edwards dropping out.
The debate.
Massive TV spending.

All of these are influencing people and the polls don't show the impact immediately (public opinion has a little lag time) and will continue to influence people until Super Tuesday.

[WillyT]

36. LOL !!! - In November, Clinton Had Almost A 30 Point Lead...

Link: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national-primary.html

Nice spin though!

:shrug:

[crimsonblue]

43. take a closer look at the polls

If you take a closer look at the national poll, they look as such:


Poll Date Sample Clinton Obama Spread
RCP Average 01/18 - 02/01 - 45.8 36.0 Clinton +9.8
Gallup 01/30-02/01 1269 LV 48 41 Clinton +7.0
Rasmussen 01/29 - 02/01 750 LV 45 37 Clinton +8.0
FOX News 01/30 - 01/31 RV 47 37 Clinton +10.0
NBC/WSJ 01/20 - 01/22 Adults 47 32 Clinton +15.0
LA Times/Bloomberg 01/18 - 01/22 532 LV 42 33 Clinton +9.0


I think you can throw out the NBC/WSJ poll because it is almost two weeks old and appears to be an outlier. Therefore, while Clinton will still have a lead, it will only be 8.5%, a decrease in her lead from yesterday if I am correct.

[Texas_Kat]

45. Two more Superdelegates in the Clinton camp

on Friday, two more Texas congressmen jumped on the Clinton bandwagon, padding her support among Hispanics.

Reps. Solomon Ortiz of Corpus Christi, the dean of the Texas Democratic delegation, and Gene Green of Houston, who is Anglo but represents a district in which Hispanics dominate, announced their endorsements, joining four colleagues who had already thrown their support to Mrs. Clinton.

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/politics/national/stories/020208dnpoltexasclinton.375b831.html

Both had backed New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, as had another Clinton supporter, House Intelligence Committee Chairman Silvestre Reyes of El Paso. The Texas Clinton team also includes Reps. Henry Cuellar of Laredo, Rubén Hinojosa of Mercedes, and Sheila Jackson Lee of Houston, one of Mrs. Clinton's most prominent black supporters, who is stumping this weekend for her in California.

Mr. Green, in a conference call with Texas journalists, cited Mrs. Clinton's views on health care and said her politics are in sync with Texas voters'.

"Texas is not by any stretch a liberal state. They want somebody who can work, somebody who's a problem-solver," he said, adding that he would welcome a campaign that lasts long after Super Tuesday, assuring heightened interest and turnout in Texas. "You get that better participation, and people who vote for Senator Clinton in March will be sure to come back and vote for her in November."

Barack Obama has one endorsement among the 13 Texas Democrats in Congress, Rep. Al Green of Houston.

and

The latest Gallup tracking poll shows Sen. Hillary Clinton with a 7
point lead nationally over Sen. Barack Obama, 48% to 41%. This is up
from just a three point lead yesterday.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/02/02/clinton_mccain_open_wider_national_leads.html

[REDFISHBLUEFISH]

53. Go Hillary!

[SammyWinstonJack]

54. As an Edwards supporter, I would love nothing better than for Hillary to beat out Obama!

Go Hillary! I will still vote for Edwards if he is on my state's primary ballot.