State-by-State Primary poll status (7-06-07)

[Yukari Yakumo]

Dark colors represent old polls (> 1 month old).
Light colors represent recent polls.

First, the Dems...

Current Status:


Trends:


And now, the Repugs...

Current Status:


Trends:


- - - -

On the Dem side, it's a big sea of Hillary.
Changes: NC has fallen to a virtual 3-way tie and SC went from Obama to undecided.
Obviously, the most important part of this is Edwards losing the lead in NC. He went from a double digit lead a couple of months ago to being a point behind now. Plus his warchest is way smaller than Obama and HRC. Suffice to say, his campaign is in deep trouble unless he can do something to give HRC and Obama a run for the money. Otherwise, I doubt he'll last much longer as a serious contender for the nom.
The good news for Obama is that he's raised a ton of money this quarter. The bad news is the he no longer holds a decisive lead in SC.
HRC has all the potential to run away with this thing. Even if she doesn't win Iowa, she currently holds huge leads in Florida and Nevada, and a large lead in New Hampshire. And if she takes South Carolina too... face it, it's over. She would be the only one with positive momentum going into Super Tuesday.
You can say "It's too soon to tell", but at what point does that become "OH SHIT!!! We've got to do something!" for the Obama and Edwards supporters?

On the Repug side, it's a big clusterfuck.
Changes: Cali is now too close to call (formerly a Ghouliani state). The same goes for SC (formerly a Fred state).
Mitt could very well become the front runner if his numbers hold up and if he takes 3 of the 5 lead off states. He has big leads in Iowa and NH. And he's within striking distance in Nevada. If anything, he could play spoiler to Ghouliani and/or Fred.
I currently predict Fred will take all of the the South minus Florida, and Fred will give the Ghoul a run for the money there. If he takes SC and Nevada, he could play spoiler to Ghouliani also.
Cali going to undecided to a boon to anyone not named Ghouliani.
McCain is pretty much done.
I'm not even sure if any of the Repug candidates will have enough delegates for the nom when it's convention time. I wonder what'll happen if that happens.
What a giant clusterfuck.

[William769]

Dupe..

[William769]

1. Thanks for posting.

K&R!

[ddeclue]

2. Me thinks thou doth protest too much....

Edwards isn't going anywhere and anyone who thinks we should all go home and quit because you and the mainstream media say so needs to ask President Gephardt or President Dean which poll really matters...

You can tell me how to vote on January 30th AFTER I vote thank you very much.

John Edwards is the only DEMOCRAT running with a chance to win.

Hillary is NOT a Democrat, just another DINO.

And she has no chance to win in the general election.

Doug D.
Orlando, FL

[William769]

6. "Hillary is NOT a Democrat, just another DINO"

You forgot to send that memo (meme) to the majority of Democratic voters! :rofl:

[ddeclue]

59. I don't have to - they know it...I'll see you at the polls....

until then don't wase our time with your psy-op polling....

We all know these polls don't mean much until the elections are close...just ask President Dean and President Gephardt....

Last time I picked Kerry in 2003 and started working for his campaign back when "President Dean" was the mainstream media's darling and the establishment Democratic candidate and we were all supposed to just lay down and accept it because "resistance was futile".

Again I'm hearing how "resistance is futile" in ridiculous threads like this and I say screw it, I'm not giving in and resistance is NOT futile.

John Edwards stands for all the things REAL Democrats OUGHT to stand for - ending the war in Iraq, ending poverty, universal healthcare, affordable college education, a living wage, a real plan to protect the environment. Edwards is always in the lead and Hillary is always triangulating and bringing up the rear on the issues. The voters know this, I know this. All the slick marketing in the world won't make up for her lack of sincerity and forthrightness with the voters.

See you at the REAL polls and until then don't waste our time citing these useless polls from the mainstream media trying to tell us how to vote.


Doug D.
Orlando, FL

[CitizenLeft]

66. I am not a Hillary Clinton supporter...

...but I'm sick and tired of this "fact" that Clinton - as a "DINO" - is unelectable. This forum representives leftist activists or those who think about politics 24-7. It's a tiny miniscule segment of the population. Even if every single one of the 32,000 registered posters here thought exactly like you, you STILL aren't even a spit in the bucket in the ocean of regular voters. Just because many on this board don't like Clinton doesn't mean a hill of beans in the "real" world. To think that you and others with the same mindset represent the entire population - or even just Democrats - or even those who are just ready for a Democrat in the WH - is ridiculous. So please stop, you're not brainwashing anybody with the constant attacks.

And for that matter, for those constantly at Obama's throat, I'm sick of the Obama attacks. People like him. Period. Get over it.

And for those determined to ridicule Edwards, I'm sick of the Edwards attacks too. Good God, no wonder we can't win presidential elections. If we attacked Republicans with the same fucking obsessive zeal, they'd never win another election.

[ShortnFiery]

67. But "we" can win presidential elections, if the DLC wouldn't run rough shot over the people.

And the DLC are, IMO, DINOs because their primary duty is to serve the interests of large corporations. :shrug: The last two elections we ran the DLC's darlings and lost the general election BOTH times. Why is that? Because of slick campaigning (remember the M$M rabbit-punching the front runner?) and catchy slogans. Oh, and then there's the "sweet whispers" by the DLC to have political candidates and organizations support "their darling" out of hopes for paybacks in the form of positions and campaign contributions.

We need *new blood.* Obama is much more corporatist than I'd like but at least he won't bring in all of "the same players" within Bubba's DLC that HRC will surely bring in. Only with HRC we'll be entertained to the sweet music of Fleetwood Mac as the bank is foreclosing on our homes. :scared:

The working and middle class people will BE SCREWED if we end up with either HRC or a republican. :( However, there's a chance with Obama - that being new, he may choose to bring in some true POPULISTS into his cabinet. A good start would be selecting Edwards as his running mate. :thumbsup:

[William769]

I doubt I'll see you at the polls since Hillary will be the nominee

You won't bother showing up.

[William769]

68. I doubt I'll see you at the polls since Hillary will be the nominee

You won't bother showing up.

[rinsd]

8. No one told you how to vote.

"John Edwards is the only DEMOCRAT running with a chance to win."

A myth that been disproven a dozen times. Feel free to call him the strongest candidate but to call him the only one with a chance to win is so much BS.

"Hillary is NOT a Democrat, just another DINO."

And yet her voting record is more liberal than Edwards.

Hillary's voting record - http://www.vote-smart.org/voting_category.php?can_id=55463

Edwards voting record - http://www.vote-smart.org/voting_category.php?can_id=CNC68243

[ShortnFiery]

10. No, just stating that Saint Hillary of The Order of the Self-Righteous Immaculate Conception

is all-powerful. .... Resistance is futile! ... Assimilate NOW American Citizen, or else! :eyes:

[rinsd]

15. self delete

[ChiciB1]

22. Great Reply... It's Too Bad I Feel The Same Way! n/t

[Yukari Yakumo]

12. Did you read the next to last line of my Edwards assessment?

Winning the nom is going to require momentum. And getting that momentum now is going to require money. Neither of which Edwards has a lot of.

"anyone who thinks we should all go home and quit because you and the mainstream media say so"

Did you even read the next to last line of the assessment of the Dems in general? I suggested the exact opposite of what you just said. I suggest you invest in some overtime in the Edwards campaign and enlist more people before it is too late.

I think Edwards biggest mistake was investing everything in Iowa. He should've followed a Dean-like approach and invested more evenly in states like New Hampshire, South Carolina, and the Super Tuesday states. Get the attention on himself in a more national spotlight rather than concentrating on a single state.

[Name removed]

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[Name removed]

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[ddeclue]

50. Trust me I'm investing my time AND my money in Edwards.

Edwards plan is exactly right because primary season is one state by state and momentum builds as the candidate wins early races.

The candidate who wins early wins PERIOD.

That's what's going to happen and why Edwards will win, not withstanding all your polls.

Doug D.

[Name removed]

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[wyldwolf]

61. Doug D is projecting

[durrrty libby]

3. "big sea of Hillary". Indeed it is a beautiful sea

I love it

:loveya: :loveya: :loveya:

I also enjoy the clusterfuck of the republicans

:crazy: :crazy: :crazy:

Thanks for the maps

[William769]

4. From sea to shining sea!

[barack4prez]

5. I don't know

what it means, but it sure is pretty to look at.

[ShortnFiery]

7. Yes, the lack of specifics within this purdy "color chart" makes it as useful as a "wet fart" n/t

[rinsd]

9. I'll explain it slowly for you to clear up confusion.

Hillary is dominating early polling in nearly every single state.

See, its not hard.

[Name removed]

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[William769]

17. Devoid of data?

I challenge you to post any polls saying otherwise.

[ShortnFiery]

21. Where are the numbers? I want the raw data so I can analyze "how close" these percentages are...

Posting an "all or nothing" "win - lose" type color chart is ... far too simplistic IMO, even for our learned opponents. :shrug:

[William769]

23. See post #20.

[rinsd]

20. I know it so very hard.

But you can actually look that stuff up yourself.

"And Hillaryites with "Pretty Color Charts" devoid of data"

But since I wouldn't want to tax that wittle head of yours, here a link to every state's polling.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#Polling

[ShortnFiery]

27. Thank you Willaim, this information is much more enlightening than simplistic color charts.

:thumbsup: :hi:

[William769]

32. 1 you spelled my name wrong.

2. I didn't supply the information.

[ShortnFiery]

36. Well I will attempt to spell your name correctly, William769, in all future communications. n/t

[William769]

37. Thank you.

P.S. I was not referring to 769. FYI.

[durrrty libby]

18. You are very good at splainin stuff, but I fear some are getting

chest pains and shortness of breath


Where's that cpr smilie?

[ShortnFiery]

24. No, I'm a merely a masters level graduate who tested into and excelled at PhD level

Experimental Design courses. I've worked as a Graduate Teaching Assistant for San Diego's NPRDC as a consultant tasked to interpret a Questionnaire given to Naval Recruiters during the late 1980s.

Because of my background, I know when data is truly educational and when it is basically pretty "bunk" lacking substance. :shrug:

You have to admit, in your quiet moments, this is a sad depiction of "wishful thinking" as you fail to supply the raw numbers to help us better interpret the Pretty Colors?

[Name removed]

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[ShortnFiery]

As am I. Really, what have you truly conveyed without the "raw data" within this thread? n/t

[Name removed]

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[William769]

28. You were given a link to all State polling, what more do you want?

Maybe this is where that degree of yours will come in handy. Just saying.

[ShortnFiery]

30. Don't get exited William, I appropriately thanked you for your citation.

:shrug:

[SaveElmer]

11. I wonder how often Jimmy Carter uses the term "wet fart"...

Probably not often...

[ShortnFiery]

16. He certainly wouldn't laud "all or nothing" color charts as PROOF of Her Eminence being anointed.

:eyes:

BTW, like the quiet and diplomatic person my husband of 25 years is in personality, many of us laud the "positive traits" that we were NOT blessed to be born with. Jimmy Carter is the person I would love to be if I was not born with this innate anti-absolute authority spicy type temperament. Is it not normal to admire the laudable traits that are one's complement?

[Name removed]

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[ShortnFiery]

34. I think, more than anything, Jimmy Carter is the epitome of honesty and open communications.

That is, I can't see him harboring "hidden agendas" nor trashing those who he is challenged by. :shrug:

[SaveElmer]

35. He is also given to self-retrospection...

And honest evaluation of his own behavior...another quality that seems to be lacking in some of his admirers....

[ShortnFiery]

38. Show me how?

BTW methinks the topic of Jimmy Carter is one big "red herring." :shrug:

[SaveElmer]

40. I fnd it interesting...

That some who admire him the most...act like him the least...

Read his Playboy interview in 1976 if you wanna see an example of retrospection btw...

[ShortnFiery]

44. Again, that is your opinion and also one BIG ...

[durrrty libby]

46. The big mouth holier than thou christians do the same thing

All gas no bag

[Name removed]

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[NoPasaran]

70. Probably true about Jimmy

I have always thought though that "The Wet Farts" would be a great name for a band.

[Rock_Garden]

25. Green, green, it's green they say, on the far side of the Hill....

:)

[ronnykmarshall]

31. Oooo this is not going to set well with Whitney.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0GiffqAc9RI

[Bullet1987]

41. What's the percentage undecided and MOE??

Can anyone answer me this simple question regarding all of these polls?

[ronnykmarshall]

42. Whitney don't care!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0GiffqAc9RI

[William769]

43. It's quite simple just look at the poll and see what it says about it. NT

[ShortnFiery]

45. No Citizen, just focus on the pretty GREEN color chart instead.

:eyes:

[Name removed]

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[rinsd]

47. Welll there are dozens of polls related to this chart

But here is wiki's breakdown (from where the data for the charts were likely gathered)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008#Polling

Most have pdf or links so you can look at the MOEs.

I think between 4 and 5 is the average MOE for polling just Dems & Dem leaners.

Undecideds vary though obviously the older the poll the greater likelyhood fo a higher percentage of undecideds.

[ShortnFiery]

49. "Rationalization" is another Freudian construct.

;) :hi:

[ronnykmarshall]

52. and for those who don't like the pretty green map .....

Do you like the better, Whitney?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0GiffqAc9RI

[ShortnFiery]

54. No, and "your Whitney" character RESPECTS your objective opinion, but do you respect hers? n/t

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[plusfiftyfive]

60. So it's decided.....Hillary versus??

I can't figure out who the Repug candidate will be..Romney or Thompson.....

But do we have any reason to hope it's not Hillary?

[Yukari Yakumo]

63. We don't know...

With the Repug side so split up, I'm not even sure if any one of them will get enough delegates to win the nom.

[levinags]

62. Thanks

I haven't seen polls from half of those states! Thanks.

[NoPasaran]

64. K & R

Nice work!

Thanks!

[pstans]

65. It doesn't matter how much money you have as long as you have enough

Edwards will have enough money to compete in the early states. He is leading in 80% of the polls in Iowa and if he isn't leading, he is within the margin of error.

[calteacherguy]

69. The clearest trend is that Edwards continues to lose ground. nt

[Catchawave]

72. meh...

you stick it to Edwards on every thread. :eyes:

[Alexander]

71. I noticed Iowa is too close to call.

We do remember what happened the last time an upset win occurred in Iowa?