THE MATH Weekly – For the Week Ending Sunday, July 6 – Obama 365, McCain 173

[phrigndumass]

THE MATH Weekly – For the Week Ending Sunday, July 6, 2008


Contents:
1. Current Projections
2. Electoral Votes
3. Strength of Electoral Votes
4. Electoral Votes Comparison to 2004
5. Popular Vote
6. Probabilities and Potentials
7. Poll Averages Comparison
8. Projected Win Index
9. The Week in Trading and Averages
10. This Week’s State Polls
11. Sources and Links


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1. Current Projections

At this point in time, Obama’s electoral vote projection is the highest it has ever been and McCain’s strong support has dwindled down to two pools of solid red on the map. The most significant changes this week came from Montana (now blue), a strengthening Virginia, New York and New England states for Obama, and a weakening Georgia and Arizona for McCain. Obama also continues to make inroads in the South and West.


Projected Electoral Votes:
Obama – 365
McCain – 173
Needed to Win – 270


Projected Popular Vote:
Obama – 60,282,514 … (47.6%) … (+6,474,286)
McCain – 53,808,228 … (42.5%)
Barr – 2,047,784 … (1.6%)
Nader – 1,215,463 … (1.0%)
Undecided/Other – 9,367,011 … (7.4%)


Probability of Obama Win – 80.2%


Strength of Projection – 73.6%








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2. Electoral Votes (270 needed to win)

While Obama’s total electoral vote projection has hit new highs this week, his electoral votes outside the margin of error has diminished a bit. Oregon, Iowa, Ohio and Pennsylvania continue to show Obama winning, but within the margin of error. My electoral vote projection for Obama has increased by 30 since last week (after a scary Tuesday) while the projections of 538.com and EV.com end the week almost exactly where they started.

















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3. Strength of Electoral Votes

Connecticut moved back into Obama’s Strong category this week, but Washington changed from Strong to Weak. The states within the margin of error grew by 20 electoral votes this week, up from 124 electoral votes to 144 electoral votes. Obama’s Strong category is the highest it has ever been (204 electoral votes), while McCain’s Strong category is the lowest it has ever been (70 electoral votes).








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4. Electoral Votes Comparison to 2004

At this point in 2004, John Kerry was leading George Bush 280 electoral votes to 247 electoral votes, with 11 electoral votes (Washington) tied. It was shortly after this day in 2004 that John Kerry chose John Edwards as his running mate, and they went on a 45-day streak of leading in the race. Their high point during the campaign came in mid-July, when Kerry was projected at 330 electoral votes. Then the attacks on Kerry came non-stop.

Comparing Obama’s projection to Kerry’s in 2004, we see that Obama has about 50 more Strong electoral votes than Kerry had at this point. Both Obama and Kerry have a similar Weak total, but there are 15 more electoral votes within the margin of error this year, compared to this point in 2004. Bush was projected at 154 Strong electoral votes four years ago, while McCain is barely scratching 70 Strong electoral votes now.








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5. Popular Vote

Obama is currently projected to win 47.6% of the popular vote, and he is ahead of McCain by 5.1%. Barr is picking up steam this week, taking 1.6% of the vote, while Nader grabs a full one percent. Obama is currently at his high point in popular vote projection, but it was only a month ago when he was at his low (45.0%). He is currently only 0.7% behind where Kerry finished in 2004, and 0.8% behind where Gore finished in 2000. The trend lines carry Obama past Gore’s and Kerry’s marks in the coming month, if the status quo remains the same. Obama is currently only 3 million votes shy of a majority of this year’s projected total popular vote.











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6. Probabilities and Potentials

The difference between each candidate’s Potential Electoral Votes Advantage provides a keen insight into how they are doing against each other nationwide. Obama’s potential advantage is 71.6%, while McCain’s potential advantage is only 55.2%. The difference in potential advantages is Obama +16.4% (down from +19.0% last week). McCain’s potential advantage increased by 3.2 percentage points this week, while Obama’s potential advantage increased by only 0.6 percentage points. This could signify a pendulum swing against us in the coming weeks, if it continues.

At this point in 2004, Kerry’s potential advantage was 64.3% and Bush’s potential advantage was 59.7%. Kerry led Bush by only +4.6% in potential advantages four years ago, compared to Obama’s +16.4% lead in potential advantages now.


Highly Probable Electoral Votes:
Obama – 204 … (37.9%)
McCain – 70 … (13.0%)

Probable Electoral Votes:
Obama – 241 … (44.8%)
McCain – 153 … (28.4%)

Potential Electoral Votes, Advantage Obama:
Obama – 385 … (71.6%)
McCain – 153 … (28.4%)

Potential Electoral Votes, Advantage McCain:
Obama – 241 … (44.8%)
McCain – 297 … (55.2%)

Blowout Electoral Votes, Advantage Obama:
Obama – 468 … (87.0%)
McCain – 70 … (13.0%)

Blowout Electoral Votes, Advantage McCain:
Obama – 204 … (37.9%)
McCain – 334 … (62.1%)


“Highly Probable” electoral votes are from states where each candidate is polling at >10% (Strong states only). “Probable” electoral votes are from states where each candidate is polling beyond the margin of error (Strong and Weak states).

“Potential” electoral votes are the same as probable states, but then we add the states polling within the margin of error to give one candidate an advantage. In this scenario, one candidate takes the states where they are polling strong and weak, and also takes all the margin-of-error states.

“Blowout” electoral votes would give one candidate only their strong states (>10%) and the other candidate would win all the other states. An example would be if Obama were to win in all his base states, all the swing states, and all the states where McCain was polling weak.


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7. Poll Averages Comparison

Obama’s aggregate average of all the state polls is 46.7% this week, up from 46.2% last week. He has now surpassed where both Kerry and Gore finished their races. Kerry ended his presidential race with a 46.5% state poll average, and Gore finished with a 46.1% state poll average. There is still quite a way to go to match Bill Clinton’s 1996 final result. Maybe Barr can help us out.

It’s interesting to note that only one candidate from either party in the past four elections managed to reach the 50.0% poll average majority, and that was George Bush in 2004 (50.7%). All other final results from all parties ended below 50.0%.


Comparison of Poll-Averages:
2008 Obama – 46.7%
2004 Kerry – 46.5% (Final)
2000 Gore – 46.1% (Final)
1996 Clinton – 48.0% (Final)
1992 Clinton – 42.1% (Final)





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8. Obama Projected Win Index (greater than zero is a projected win for Obama)

If the election were held today, Obama would have an 80.2% probability of winning and McCain would have a 19.8% probability of winning. And these probabilities come with an ever-increasing strength of projection, which leaps 23.4% this week to 73.6% as the portion of undecideds polled become smaller and smaller.








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9. The Week in Trading and Averages

Gallup’s daily tracking average for Obama is up three points to 47% this week, while Rasmussen’s daily tracking average for Obama stays put at 49%. The Real Clear Politics Average this week is 48.5% for Obama, up from 47.1% last week. Obama now leads McCain in averages by 5% in Gallup, by 5% in Rasmussen, and by 5.7% in RCP. Our Wigand Electoral Average dropped from 60.22 last week to 55.76 this week for Obama, as Florida moved back into McCain’s territory.

Obama’s Intrade shares closed at 65.1, up from 63.5 last week. His shares on Rasmussen Markets drops from 67.1 to 67.0 this week.

Overall trading for our 12 swing states continues to level off, increasing only 7.50 this week to 667.20 for Obama, but it remains strong above the majority mark of 600.00. The states gaining ground in trading for Obama this week are: Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, South Carolina and Wisconsin. Nebraska stays put, while small losses were incurred for New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Obama is doing better than McCain overall in our 12 swing states by a margin of 55% to 45%.

















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10. This Week’s State Polls

Alabama – Obama 36, McCain 51 (Rasmussen, 6/26, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Arizona – Obama 40, McCain 49 (Rasmussen, 6/25, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Connecticut – Obama 56, McCain 35 (Quinnipiac, 6/29, +/- 2.0, 2437 LV)
Connecticut – Obama 52, McCain 35 (Rasmussen, 7/1, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Connecticut – Obama 57, McCain 35 (Research 2000, 7/2, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Florida – Obama 41, McCain 48 (Rasmussen, 6/26, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Florida – Obama 46, McCain 44 (Public Policy Polling, 6/29, +/- 3.6, 723 LV)
Florida – Obama 43, McCain 49, BARR 1 (Strategic Vision, 6/28, +/- 4.0, 800 LV)
Georgia – Obama 43, McCain 53, BARR 1 (Rasmussen, 6/26, +/- 4.0, 800 LV)
Georgia – Obama 43, McCain 51, BARR 3 (Strategic Vision, 6/28, +/- 4.0, 800 LV)
Georgia – Obama 44, McCain 46, BARR 4 (Insider Advantage, 7/2, +/- 4.3, 502 LV)
Louisiana – Obama 36, McCain 52 (Southern Media & Op Res, 6/28, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Massachusetts – Obama 53, McCain 40 (Survey USA, 6/27, +/- 4.1, 607 LV)
Massachusetts – Obama 53, McCain 33 (Rasmussen, 6/30, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Montana – Obama 48, McCain 43 (Rasmussen, 7/1, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
New York – Obama 57, McCain 37 (Survey USA, 6/27, +/- 4.3, 531 LV)
New York – Obama 60, McCain 29 (Rasmussen, 6/30, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
North Carolina – Obama 41, McCain 45, BARR 5 (PPP, 6/29, +/- 3.0, 1048 LV)
Rhode Island – Obama 53, McCain 25 (Rhode Island College, 7/1, +/- 4.0, 500 RV)
Rhode Island – Obama 55, McCain 31 (Rasmussen, 7/1, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Virginia – Obama 49, McCain 47 (Survey USA, 6/22, +/- 4.0, 630 LV)
Washington – Obama 47, McCain 39 (Strategies 360, 6/26, +/- 2.75, 1200 LV)

States with Outdated Polls (Older Than 35 days):
Delaware
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Maryland
North Dakota
South Dakota
Vermont
Wyoming

States with Undecideds Greater Than 10%:
West Virginia – 16.4%
New Jersey – 16.1%
North Dakota – 13.4%
Kentucky – 12.6%
South Dakota – 12.4%
Tennessee – 11.8%
Alabama – 11.5%
South Carolina – 11.0%
Arkansas – 10.7%
Utah – 10.3%
Pennsylvania – 10.1%
Maryland – 10.0%


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11. Sources and Links

THE MATH:
Read Last Week’s Edition
Monday’s Daily Widget
Tuesday’s Daily Widget
Wednesday’s Daily Widget
Thursday’s Daily Widget
Friday’s Daily Widget

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls


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As always, I’m open to your feedback and suggestions, and I will be happy to explain anything!

Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.

Donate to the Obama Campaign today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/du

[Joanne98]

1. This is great! Thanks for the work. Are you going to do this every week?

K&R

:yourock:

[phrigndumass]

3. Yes ma'am, every week

I've been posting the Weekly since May 2 and the Daily Widget since May 19, but I feel I previously chose the wrong forum in which to post.

For back issues, here's a link to my journal:
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/phrigndumass

Thanks Joanne! :hi:

[Joanne98]

5. Great! You've done an excellent job. I'll make sure to rec every one!

[phrigndumass]

7. Thanks, Joanne!

:yourock:

[jtrockville]

2. Brilliantly done!

[phrigndumass]

4. Thank you, jtrockville

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

6. For those of you interested in spreadsheets

and would like to see the raw data behind the post, feel free to download the spreadsheet:

http://www.box.net/shared/5mgm71uccg

I believe in open source and full vetting, so your comments are welcome!