STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday 11 November

[ozymandius]

Thursday November 11, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 335 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 24 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1085
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 10, 2004

Dow... 10,385.48 -0.89 (-0.01%)
Nasdaq... 2,034.56 -8.77 (-0.43%)
S&P 500... 1,162.91 -1.17 (-0.10%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.25% +0.04 (+0.85%)
Gold future... 434.50 -1.70 (-0.39%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [email protected]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

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[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Mike Hartman - GLOBAL CURRENCIES OUT OF BALANCE

The big hot buttons driving the financial markets today are weakness in the dollar, U.S. trade deficits, the Federal Reserve’s statement later today, and expectations for the economy, inflation and interest rates moving forward. Overall, stock prices have done gone nowhere for the last three days as is normal while the Treasury Department conducts its quarterly refunding debt auctions. By far the loudest signal I received today from the markets came with early volatility from currencies in the foreign exchange market. The U.S. dollar opened the day at new lows versus the euro at $1.3002 and Swiss franc at $.8565 with the December gold futures contract in new high ground at $438.30. The U.S. trade deficit for September was released first thing in the morning and the initial reaction sent the dollar lower, but not more than five minutes later the dollar began to strengthen while the yen headed south in a hurry. For me this was an overt signal the Bank of Japan fully intends to intervene in the currency markets in support of the dollar. It appears the BOJ is determined to weaken the yen in an effort to remain competitive versus China to support their export trade.

The real question I have to ask is, “What will the response be from the European Central Bank?” I interpret the movement in today’s currency market as Japan saying to the Europeans, “You do what you need to do, and we will do what we need to do to look after ourselves.” So far the euro has borne the brunt of the U.S. dollar decline and the officials at the ECB are voicing their disapproval. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said “brutal” moves in the currency market are “not welcome,” and ECB council member Guy Quaden told a Belgian newspaper yesterday that further appreciation in the euro is “undesirable.” If you take a look at the three-year daily chart of the euro/yen relationship you can get a good graphic view of what is happening. Today the falling yen forced the breakout from the consolidation that has been in process since the middle of 2003. Today’s breakout tells me Japan will fight tooth and nail to remain competitive globally. The ECB has been more focused on containing inflation with higher interest rates than the U.S. and on limiting the deficit spending of member countries. Their goal is to keep deficits below 2% of GDP while the government deficit in the U.S. is currently over 5% of GDP.

-cut-

Stocks and Bonds

As I said earlier, stock prices tend to go nowhere during Treasury debt auctions. This time around hasn’t been any different. Last Friday the S&P 500 closed at 1,166, Monday closed at 1,164, yesterday’s close 1,164 and today 1,162. The narrower Dow Jones Industrial Average had no change today closing at 10,385 and the NASDAQ Composite was under pressure most of the day after Cisco Systems coughed up a hairball by saying sales growth will slow this quarter. The NASDAQ Composite fell eight points to close at 2,034. Stocks rallied a bit in the early afternoon just prior to the statement from the Federal Reserve, but quickly retreated when the Fed basically left their statement unchanged from the last meeting. The market expected the 25 basis point hike to the Fed Funds target rate, but was also looking for a hint that the committee will hold off on the expected rate increase in December. The only change in the language from the Fed described the labor market as “improved” versus “improved modestly” from the last statement.

In the last twenty years the Fed has lowered interest rates seven times in the month of December while the past twenty Decembers have only seen two rate increases. Interest rate futures are still showing roughly a 75% chance of an increase in December, but my gut feel says they will hold off on the next one. By holding off in December it could work to keep a bid in the bond market reflecting the lower than anticipated rate and it will give the stock bulls a chance for two weeks of window dressing to close out the books for the year. They will continue talking of higher interest rates to come in an effort to contain inflation expectations, but in reality the Fed will most probably remain well behind the curve to raise rates since we are a debt-dependent economy. Jim Puplava has held the belief the Fed doesn’t have much room to raise rates, and just yesterday I read the following quote from Bill Gross presented by Steven Saville of www.speculative-investor.com. "My/our most certain idea, as expressed in previous Outlooks, is that real interest rates in the United States will have to be kept low, that the old Taylor rule <*> is out. Too much debt in a finance-based economy precludes raising interest rates like we have in the past and while that keeps the patient/economy breathing it leads to asset bubbles, potential inflation, and a declining currency over time." Steve Saville summed it up with, “In other words, we agree with Bill Gross that the US economy is burdened with such a huge amount of debt that it could not sustain the level of REAL short-term interest rates that would typically be associated with a normal, healthy economy, with a ramification being a declining dollar over time.”]/b]

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Parsing What the Fed Left Out

The statements that accompany the Federal Reserve (news - web sites)'s policy meetings are carefully scrutinized by Wall Street, with key words and phrases poured over for possible hints as to future policy moves. But sometimes the Fed communiques are notable for what they don't say.

-cut-

MORE JOBS. Pundits had speculated that the Fed could introduce a number of issues that were relevant to the current policy debate: the sudden surge in the yield spread between inflation-indexed Treasury securities and conventional Treasuries, fiscal and current account deficits, and dollar weakness -- all hot topics in the market and all worthy of consideration. None of these items, however, made it into the Fed's postmeeting statement. We will now have to await the minutes from the November meeting, scheduled for release Dec. 16, to see if any were discussed.

Behind the scenes there was likely a debate on many counts among the assembled Fed governors, but the FOMC presented a united front. The central bank steadfastly asserted that monetary policy remains accommodative and that, along with robust productivity growth, this will continue to prop up the economy (see BW Online, 11/11/04, "Raising Red Flags About Productivity").

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UNEASY FORCES. The Fed's reference to inflation was equally circumspect, with the assertion that "inflation and longer-term inflation expectations remain well contained." In September, the Fed had stated that "inflation and inflation expectations have eased in recent months." Again, the Fed appears to have hedged its bets subtly to the upside on both the economy and inflation, heading toward 2005. Indeed, it has gone to great lengths to refrain from alarming the markets while there is still some perceived vulnerability in the economy.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=66&ncid=1203&e=1&u=/bw/20041111/bs_bw/nf200411111247db035

[ozymandius]

3. Raising Red Flags About Productivity

It has practically been an article of faith at the Federal Reserve (news - web sites): Fueled by the Information Revolution, strong productivity growth is here to stay. Fed policymakers once again called the underlying growth rate of productivity "robust" as they bumped up interest rates for the fourth time this year, on Nov. 10.

But behind the scenes, some Fed policymakers are questioning how much longer the efficiency miracle can go on. They see signs of a slowdown in the torrid pace of technological innovation in the computer and chip industries, advances that have propelled productivity in the last decade. And they wonder if those are harbingers of less vigorous gains ahead.

-cut-

What's critical is whether this slowdown is symptomatic of a permanent downshift. Most experts aren't too concerned. They see it as only a temporary response to the ups and downs of the business cycle and point to a host of innovations in the tech industry. Indeed, they peg the underlying growth rate of productivity at 2% or better.

So what exactly is making some Fed worrywarts antsy? Their concerns have been triggered by changing pricing patterns in tech. Between 1992 and 2002, the quality-adjusted price of new computers as compiled by the government fell at an annual rate of 18%. Those sharp dips mainly reflected the pace of technological progress and faster productivity growth. The rapid improvements in technology spurred stepped-up computer buying by businesses, spreading the productivity miracle throughout the economy.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=66&ncid=1203&e=2&u=/bw/20041111/bs_bw/nf200411113418db016

[54anickel]

10. Hahahaha! The Productivity Miracle. Love this last part -

Economists admit there is much they don't understand about productivity. Yet getting the outlook right will be crucial if the Fed is to successfully steer the economy forward.

It started as a theory, one of many, to explain the growth of the 90's. Then it spread like a "rumor" and gained acceptance. It was put at the forefront to redirect attention away from both the currency crisis' that started popping up around the globe in the late 90's, and the "unintentional" ramifications of NAFTA. Somehow it was elevated to the level of "Gospel".

Now it is taken on "faith". They don't understand it, yet they must believe! Morans!!! :eyes:

[ozymandius]

4. Economists Predict Another Rate Increase (new)

WASHINGTON - Federal Reserve (news - web sites) policy-makers encouraged by the economy's performance may bump up interest rates again in December — a fifth time this year — and will continue to tighten credit in 2005, economists predict.

The latest increase in short-term rates came on Wednesday, moving the federal funds rate by one-quarter of a percentage point to 2 percent. That rate stood at 1 percent, a 46-year low, when Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan (news - web sites) and his colleagues began raising rates in late June. Over the past five months, the central bank has made four quarter-point moves.

The increases are part of a gradual process to wean the economy from what was an extraordinarily low federal funds rate. This rate, which is the interest that banks charge each other on overnight loans, is the Fed's main tool to influence the economy.

more...

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=1203&e=3&u=/ap/20041111/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/fed_interest_rates&sid=95609868

[54anickel]

13. Another 25 Basis Points, How Many Left?

http://www.prudentbear.com/midweekanalysis.asp

After several months of lackluster labor markets the US economy finally added a significant number of jobs. According to the October employment situation report, 337,000 workers gained employment during the month, the highest number of new workers since March this year and only the third month in the last four years that payrolls have increased by more than 250,000. Additionally, September’s gain was revised up to 139,000 from the 96,000 gain previously reported. Most of the jobs added continued to be in the business services, adding 97,000 jobs with temporary help accounting for half the gain. Notable increases were also in goods-producing, construction, and education & heath sectors. Looking at year-over-year changes in the number of workers employed in sectors shows that the areas of the economy we have been discussing as strong have also been adding workers. Mining has increased payrolls by 5.1% since last October, and construction has added 3.9%. The retail sector has only added 0.8% over the past year, but there are dramatic differences between the different types of retailers. Automotive dealers have reduced their workforce by 0.6%, but building materials have increased by 4.7%. Grocery stores have pared workers by 0.1%, but apparel retailers have added 4.0% over the past year. Perhaps a bit of good news was that the central banks reduced payrolls by 4% since last year. I’m not sure if that includes Robert McTeer, the president of the Dallas Fed who is leaving to become the Chancellor of Texas A&M. As a former student of Texas A&M, I’ll refrain from any other comments, but will republish two of my favorite McTeer quotes. The first was from a speech he gave a business group in February 2001, “If we all join hands and go buy a new SUV, everything will be all right.” In September of the same year, McTeer admitted that the economy was being suspended by consumer debt. “They've been doing something that's probably irrational from the point of view of the individual consumer because they all need to be saving more: saving for retirement, saving for college and all that. But we'd be in bad trouble if they started doing that rational thing all of a sudden. We're happy that they're spending. We wish that they didn't have to run up a lot of debt to do it. But it's not something we're terribly worried about right now because their assets are high." :eyes:

That was when consumer debt totaled 1,598.0 billion; it now stands almost 30% higher at $2,055.8 billion. Consumer credit jumped $9.8 billion in September, much higher than the $7.0 billion economists predicted. Additionally, August’s consumer credit was revised to an increase of $2.2 billion, it was previously reported as a decline of $2.4 billion. Last week, retailers reported that October same store sales increased by 4.05% according to the International Council of Shopping Centers. With savings rates near zero, future strength of the consumer depends on the appetite for additional debt.

Part of the appetite for debt has been fed by the low interest rate environment that has been sponsored by the Federal Reserve. While the Fed increased rates this week by 25 basis points, the 2.0% Fed Funds target continues to be “accommodative.” In fact, during the recovery in the mid-1990s, rates were already back up to the level of nominal GDP growth. The stronger than expected employment report caused economists to expect that the Fed will hike rates upward again in December. Previously, most economists thought that the Fed would pause at the December meeting.


This week, real estate investment trust, Vornado Realty Trust, announced it had purchased a 4.3% stake in Sears. This sparked a 24% jump in Sears’ stock. Several investors believe that Sears, among several other retailers, have value in their real estate holdings that is not reflected in the current stock price. The purchase by Vornado added to the debate and several retail stocks that own some of their stores experienced a jump in stock price. On Wednesday, the Wall Street Journal questioned the logic behind valuing retailers based on their real estate. The article points out that many of Sears’ locations are in malls and would not be able to be converted to other types of properties that are more highly valued, such as condos or nursing homes. If investors are valuing the company for their real estate than as a retailer, investors must not have much faith on the company’s ability to function as a retailer. :crazy: Furthermore, a research report from UBS this week also asked the question, who needs that much retail space? Sears’ has about 20% of the mall anchor space in the country.

more...

[UpInArms]

15. Analysis: When Fed Says Jump, Investors Ask 'How High?'

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=reutersEdge&storyID=6786769

LONDON (Reuters) - Ironic thing about the U.S. Federal Reserve raising interest rates -- tighter money puts investors on edge about their financial assets, but it also tells them that all is essentially well.

Wednesday's 25 basis point hike by the U.S. central bank was no surprise, nor was the reiteration that it intends to press on with a series of rises.

The policy, however, is seen as a key to next year's returns on equities, bonds and currencies -- potentially dragging on stocks, hitting fixed income and, maybe, supporting the dollar.

It injects unwanted uncertainty into markets that are already being pushed and pulled by contradictory economic data, soaring oil prices, and waxing and waning geopolitical tension.

But underlying this is the fact that the Fed feels it can raise rates. That is a clear sign to investors that the world's most important policymakers believe the world's most important economy is in relatively good shape.

If the so-called soft spot that the U.S. economy has been going through was in danger of getting worse, it is argued, the Fed would have felt constrained.

"If they had done nothing yesterday, it would have been negative," said Jaap van Duijn, chief strategist at Dutch investor Robeco.

<snip>

This is because if the Fed deviates from its stated policy it would be a sign that the economy was slowing.

...more...

[54anickel]

23. Hmm, so how much of it is a "bluff"? This week's articles alone make the

following look like a "poker face".

Instead, the Fed spoke of robust underlying growth in productivity, moderately paced output growth, improved labor market conditions and contained inflation expectations.

They're lyyyyying again. B-)

[UpInArms]

5. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 84.35 Change -0.08 (-0.09%)

Yen Falls Versus Dollar, Euro on Concern Japan to Sell Currency

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=aPJd7UmEUmZE&refer=home

Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) -- The yen fell by the most against the dollar in almost six months on concern Japan may sell its currency to protect exports and economic growth.

Traders reversed bets that the yen would strengthen after the Bank of Korea vowed to take action to slow ``excessive'' gains in its currency, fueling speculation Japan will follow. Wagers that the yen would advance reached the highest since February on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange last week.

``Investors previously had the comfortable assumption that Asian central banks would allow their currencies to appreciate without any protest,'' said Kenneth Landon, a senior currency strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York, the second- biggest U.S. bank. ``The yen is really moving on this.''

Japan's currency weakened to 106.99 per dollar at 12:24 p.m. in New York from 105.67 yesterday, according to electronic foreign-exchange dealing system EBS. It was at 138.11 per euro, down from 136.30. The dollar traded at $1.2908 per euro after reaching a record $1.30 per euro in the first minutes after the U.S. said its trade gap was the third-widest on record.

``There was a heavy dollar-short position piled up ahead of the report on trade,'' said Tetsuhisa Hayashi, vice president and manager of Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd.'s foreign-exchange group. ``We saw some dollar buying to minimize trading losses at 106 yen.''

...more...

The Missing People's Agenda

http://www.dallasobserver.com/issues/2004-11-11/news/news.html

excerpt:

The firings and cancellations, referred to in a press release as a "strategic realignment," come a mere two months after Forbes reported that KERA President Gary Ferrell was among the highest-paid bosses in public broadcasting, pulling in $257,504 annually--a sizable chunk of the $10 million raised during the regular pledge drives. Though Ferrell vehemently disputes the Forbes item, insisting its $10 million figure did not take into account the additional $7 million NTBC receives through government grants and other revenue sources, there's no denying the layoffs reveal substantial fiscal problems at KERA, which has been losing millions for years--even forcing the sale of KDTN-Channel 2 in January to a Christian broadcaster for $19.5 million. That money was put into an investment fund that will pay for new locally produced programming in the future, says a station spokeswoman.

According to the corporation's tax records, NTBC took in about $16 million during the fiscal year that ended in June 2003 and spent about $18 million, and that deficit appears to have doubled the next year. "Revenue has been pretty flat over the last several years," Ferrell says. One reason was the drop in donations after September 11, 2001, prompting the first round of layoffs in June 2002. "And we've suffered from expense increases," including rising health-care costs, a conversion to digital broadcasting and pay raises.

Ferrell says the station's executives and its 58-member board began trying to deal with the problems last spring. "We knew we were going to have to make some adjustments to our expense structure pretty early," Ferrell says. "What we were trying to do is to evaluate the services and activities that we're involved in and which ones are valuable and which ones maybe need to go away."

...more...

http://miva.sctimes.com/miva/cgi-bin/miva?CMN/Local/read.mv+20041111042129+2+

Electrolux: New leader in; layoffs are likely

The St. Cloud Electrolux freezer factory is under interim management, and layoffs are likely this fall as a small portion of production permanently shifts to China.

Interim manager Phil Hilling has replaced general manager Ron McCoy, who left a little more than a year after taking the job.

Electrolux spokesman Tony Evans declined to give reasons for McCoy's departure, citing a policy that prohibits comment on personnel matters.

Electrolux will make a particular size of compact chest freezer in China instead of St. Cloud to reduce production costs and accommodate plant capacity, Evans said.

"It's a small part of our overall freezer production," he said.

The St. Cloud plant has fought to stay competitive with foreign factories that have lower labor costs and fewer environmental rules.

...more...

OUCH on that 'toon, Ozy - looks like the USoA is making great strides in spreading democracy and its jobs :(

No reports today - it's Veteran's Day - and we making more of them all the time, too.

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[54anickel]

7. G7 considers coordinated forex intervention: Italy

http://www.turkishpress.com/news.asp?id=33389

ROME (AFP) - The Group of Seven richest countries is considering coordinated intervention on currency markets to stabilise foreign exchange rates, Italian Economy Minister Domenico Siniscalco said.

"We are talking again about intervention, not unilateral but a coordinated intervention," he said.

snip>

At the same time, US officials have been notably silent about the dollar's weakness, which makes US exports cheaper on international markets.

The dollar's recent weakness against the euro is due largely to concerns about how the United States will attract the necessary capital inflows to fund the deteriorating trade balance and budget deficit.

The fear is that overseas investors might lose confidence in the debt-ridden US economy, placing their money elsewhere.

Analysts say market concerns about the deficits have increased in the wake of US President George W. Bush's re-election win last week.

more...

[UpInArms]

27. Euro pressured by ECB intervention talk

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=1100190760-9e32d306-41814

excerpt:

In light of the objections, the markets are on the lookout for possible euro selling and dollar buying from the European Central Bank

"It's clearly on the agenda and we are now entering the zone of actual market intervention," said Neil Mackinnon, chief economist at ECU Group

"By pushing the euro through 1.30 usd, investors should be on alert, for we are close to the (ECB's) pain threshold," he added

The ECB's last foray onto foreign exchange markets was in late 2000. At the time it acted in coordination with other G7 countries to buy euros and sell dollars after the eurozone unit plunged to a record low of 0.8230 usd

The US monetary authorities are unlikely to get involved and are widely believed to be in favour of a managed depreciation in the dollar

"The perception that the US favours a weaker dollar to help rectify the huge current account imbalance contrasts sharply with the European policy stance and is likely to become an increasing source of friction over coming weeks," said Mitul Kotecha, senior currency strategist at CALYON

Though US officials have been notably silent about the dollar developments, alarm bells appear to have been rung at the Bank of Japan, which has a reputation for intervening in the market to stem the yen's appreciation. "We can't rule out joint intervention between the ECB and the BoJ," said ECU Group's Mackinnon

...more...

[54anickel]

6. Ozy, that toon! Brings tears to my eyes - and not from laughing. So

sad, what we have "evolved" into.

Well, it's Veteran day so I believe the bond traders are off for the day. I don't think we have any reports either. They released the initial claims late yesterday, didn't they?

[ozymandius]

9. Initial claims were released yesterday morning.

Initial claims were up a few thousand. No reports are due today.

That cartoon - Democracy at the point of a gun - makes me hang my head in shame. So many of our citizens, exercising their right to vote, endorse this form of cultural genocide.

[54anickel]

12. I think many of those "citizens" have been conned into the idea of

"tough love". Or at least that is the "reasoning" they are using in their minds to somehow "justify" their support for the war and this mal-admins planned policies.

Think the self-talk goes something like, "If Murikans and the rest of the world can't make the "right" decisions, we must do it for them. We do this out of 'love' for our fellow human beings as well as our children."

Or some such drivel. :puke:

[UpInArms]

8. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

9:16 ET S&P futures vs fair value: +4.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.0. Expectations remain set for a higher open for the cash market... Oil at $48.20/bbl (-$0.66) is near its lows for the morning... As a reminder, the bond market will be closed today in observance of Veterans' Day, which leaves the economic calendar empty, and DELL reports after the bell tonight

8:33AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +5.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.5. Bullish bias persists in pre-market trading, and as such, expectations for a higher start for cash market remain intact... A number of retailers are in the news for earnings with URBN and AEOS providing reassuring reports while TIF disappointed.... Separately, Dow component Coca-Cola is making waves this morning as it has lowered its EPS and revenue goals for 2005

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +5.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.5. Futures market holding fairly steady this morning in positive territory, which is setting the stage for a modestly higher open for the cash market... Oil is lower ($48.23/bbl -0.63) as news circulates this morning that Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat has died

ino.com

The December NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it continues to consolidates below resistance marked by June's high crossing at 1532.50. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is in a bullish mode and rising signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above June's high crossing at 1532.50 would open the door for a possible test of weekly resistance crossing at 1563 later this year. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1514.20 would signal that a double top with June's high has been posted. The December NASDAQ 100 was up 6.50 pts. at 1529 as of 5:49 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The December S&P 500 index was higher overnight and is working on a possible inside day as it consolidates above the previous contract high crossing at 1160.10. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is in a bullish mode and is rising signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this fall's rally, a test of monthly fib resistance crossing at 1170.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1152.91 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. The December S&P 500 Index was up 3.80 pts. at 1168.60 as of 5:51 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[ozymandius]

11. opening numbers and blather

9:46 numbers
Dow 10,429.57 +44.09 (+0.42%)
Nasdaq 2,043.33 +8.77 (+0.43%)
S&P 500 1,166.94 +4.03 (+0.35%)
10-Yr Bond 4.254% 0.00
NYSE Volume 91,213,000
Nasdaq Volume 158,165,000

Opening gains

Stocks opened higher Thursday but gains were muted. The Dow industrials and the Nasdaq composite rose about a third of a percent apiece in the early going. Bonds were closed for Veterans Day. Details soon.

http://money.cnn.com/

...and...

Positive start seen for U.S. stocks
Thursday November 11, 9:10 am ET
By Susan Lerner

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - U.S. stocks were headed for a positive start Thursday bolstered by strength in the technology sector though a disappointing outlook from Coca-Cola Co. was likely to weigh on blue chips.

-cut-

The dollar stabilized against the euro after volatile trade on Wednesday. The euro was quoted at $1.2893 in early U.S. action, virtually unchanged from late Wednesday. The dollar fell 0.2 percent to 106.75 Japanese yen.

Crude futures were down 66 cents to $48.20 a barrel while gold futures dipped 20 cents to $434.30 an ounce.

Bond markets are closed Thursday for the Veterans Day holiday.

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/041111/6899bff390271a5f75c9d85b3327349e_1.html

[54anickel]

14. Australian Jobless Rate Falls to Lowest in 26 Years

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000081&sid=a6ThPy0RCVXg&refer=australia

Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Australia's unemployment rate fell to 5.3 percent in October, the lowest in more than 26 years, and the economy added twice as many jobs as expected as higher corporate profits spurred hiring.

Employment rose 43,700 in October, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said in Sydney today. The jobless rate fell from 5.5 percent in September to the lowest since monthly figures were first released in February 1978. Neighboring New Zealand separately reported its jobless rate fell to an 18-year-low 3.8 percent.

Coles Myer Ltd., Australia's biggest retailer, has been hiring after opening new stores, while miners such as WMC Resources Ltd. are adding workers as China's growth spurs demand for metals and ore. Australian bonds fell on increased speculation the central bank will raise interest rates in the first quarter of next year as lower unemployment spurs wage increases.

``Job gains will flow into consumer spending and the bad news is we're likely to see a pickup in wages, which may fuel inflation,'' said Stephen Walters, chief economist at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. in Sydney. ``That's why we see the Reserve Bank raising interest rates in the first quarter of 2005.''

Australia's economy grew 4.1 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, the fastest pace in almost two years, fueled by consumer and business spending. New Zealand's economy expanded 5.7 percent in the second quarter from the year earlier, the fastest pace in four years, buoyed by a housing boom and consumer spending.

Bonds Decline

more...

[54anickel]

16. China Predicts 9.3 Percent Economic Growth

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/business/AP-China-Economy.html?oref=login

SHANGHAI, China (AP) -- China's economy will grow by 9.3 percent this year, the government forecast Thursday, amid signs that efforts to tame the economic boom may be failing to cap inflation.

China's gross domestic product for 2004 is forecast to increase to 13.4 trillion yuan ($1.6 trillion), state media reported, citing the State Information Center.

Meanwhile, the National Statistics Bureau said that the producer price index, a leading indicator for consumer price movements, jumped at an annual rate of 8.4 percent in October. The index, which measures the cost of goods used in production, rose 7.9 percent year-over-year in September.

The bureau cited higher prices for crude oil, coal, steel and nonferrous metal prices as major factors behind the rise.

China's consumer price index, the country's main indicator for inflation, rose 5.2 percent in September, remaining near a seven-year high. The figure for October has not yet been released.

more...

[UpInArms]

17. 54anickel, have you noticed

something weird with the ino.com dollar index?

when I posted the dollar this am, the opening index number was 85.43 - now it has a "new" opening number (in the past it only "settled" once per day)

Last trade 84.29 Change -0.09 (-0.11%)

Settle 84.37 Settle Time 09:37

Open 84.46 Previous Close 84.43

High 84.56 Low 84.25

Volume 1,738
Add DXY0 to my INO Portfolio

Last tick: 2004-11-11 10:05:18 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[54anickel]

21. Yeah, could it have something to do with the holiday? I read on their

site last night that the US markets would be closed. Might be the opening and closing overseas? :shrug:

That whole thing has been strange lately. Volume never changes anymore and I've seen Open change a couple of times miday in the recent past. Not sure what they are doing.

[UpInArms]

18. Tiffany shares dive with 26% drop in profit

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BE3250B44%2D546E%2D46D8%2D864B%2DEB20FA7F1693%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Tiffany & Co. shares sank in early trading Thursday after the high-end jeweler reported an unexpected 26 percent decline in third-quarter earnings owing to continuing weak sales in Japan and higher costs for precious metals and diamonds.

The results led New York-based Tiffany (TIF: news, chart, profile) to scale back its full-year forecast. Shares were trading at $29.95, down 6.7 percent, or $2.16.

Income tumbled to $20.8 million, or 14 cents a share, compared with last year's $28 million, or 19 cents a share. The results were well below the 19 cents a share average estimate gleaned by analysts reporting to Thomson First Call.

Tiffany's sales for the latest quarter improved 7.2 percent to $461.2 million from $430.1 million last year. However, this also fell short of the average estimate of $465.2 million.

"These disappointing results do not affect our long-term strategic direction," said Chairman Michael Kowalski in a statement. "While the U.S. sales increase was geographically broad-based, we had to cope with softer demand in the early part of the quarter and faced a tough comparison with 2003's third quarter.

...more...

:nopity:

[ozymandius]

19. 11:10am numbers and yadda

Dow 10,416.16 +30.68 (+0.30%)
Nasdaq 2,044.08 +9.52 (+0.47%)
S&P 500 1,167.32 +4.41 (+0.38%)
10-Yr Bond 4.254% 0.00
NYSE Volume 412,043,000
Nasdaq Volume 593,423,000

U.S. stocks advance on tech strength

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - Stocks were moving higher Thursday morning as Intel Corp. paced a bounce in technology after the chip giant announced a management shuffle but blue chip gains were limited by a disappointing outlook from Coca-Cola Co.

-cut-

Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO - News) was the biggest blue chip decliner, sliding 2.1 percent in early trade, after the soft drink giant it anticipates weakness in several key markets in 2005 and lowered long-term targets for both volume and operating income growth.

Coke lowered its long-term volume growth target to 3 to 4 percent from 5 to 6 percent previously.

-cut-

Tech talk

Bullish analyst calls in the chip sector were also helping tech.

Credit Suisse First Boston boosted its recommendation on radio chipmaker RF Micro Devices (NasdaqNM:RFMD - News) "neutral" from "underperform" while Merrill Lynch raised its rating on Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE:AMD - News) to "buy" from "neutral."

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/041111/1b68ae3d1105ff2b52dbbb90ee51d790_1.html

[54anickel]

20. In short, we are screwed (Mogambo)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/daughty/daughty111104.html

snip>

All that new money immediately devalues all the rest of the money. Devalued money thus has less buying power. Which means that things will cost more. Which means you can buy less stuff. This is stuff you want to buy, things you could have bought, and things you would have bought, if your income had gone up, in dollars and cents, to offset the decline in buying power of each dollar. Which it didn't.

And when considering the fact that a lot of what we buy are imports (i.e. oil), then a falling dollar means that either 1) imports will cost more in dollars and cents, or 2) foreigners will make less profits, because when they exchange those dollars that they receive from us back into their local currency, they will end up with less foreign currency in their grubby little foreign hands. And then they have to go home and fight the rush-hour traffic, and by the time they get home they have a splitting headache and all they want to do is have a nice, quiet dinner, sit in front of the TV and watch something to keep our minds off their troubles, which is, in case you forgot, that they are not making as much in profits. But noOOooo! They are hardly inside the front door when the wife wants to know why they are not making as much money as before, and don't hand me that crap about the exchange-rate, because all you have to do is raise prices! And then they think to themselves "Hey! The old shrew is right! I could raise prices!"

And that is not the end of our trouble! Oh, no! Now I have to re-write that entire sentence to read "And when considering the fact that a lot of what we buy are imports (i.e. oil), then a falling dollar means that either 1) imports will cost more in dollars and cents, or 2) there is no 2."

And now you ask me what is so bad about a falling dollar? The answer is simplicity itself: things cost more, and you don't have more money to pay the higher prices, which means that you buy less and less stuff every month, and pretty soon you run out of things to cut off the shopping list that SHE wants to buy, and pretty soon you are whittling away at the things YOU want to buy that are on that shopping list. Damn!

And what's more, foreigners would have to be real morons to buy our debt, seeing as how they are guaranteed to get back less purchasing power than they paid for the debt! And you can say what you want about foreigners, such as how they speak with these weird foreign languages that don't seem to make sense and they eat strange food that you wouldn't give to a dog, but you just can't rely on them to be stupid, no matter how much it would benefit us Americans. Plenty of them ARE stupid, of course, just as there are plenty of AMERICANS that are really stupid. You just can't RELY on them to be stupid and to keep being stupid.

And this brings us to the Big Important News That Makes The Mogambo Very Nervous (BINTMTMVN), and when the Mogambo is nervous you should know to wear something bulletproof when you come snooping around here. The news is that China is saying with some increasing frequency that it plans to "create a more flexible exchange-rate mechanism.'' This means that they will soon no longer support the dollar at the current peg to the Chinese yuan. This is in response to the idiots here in America and the International Monetary Fund, and lots of other idiots in lots of other places, namely the universities which are chock-a-block full of economic dimwits and poseurs that love to flash their PhD's in economics in my face, as if that alone can justify the stupidities that come out of their mealy mouths, all of whom, for reasons that are not really clear, think that altering the current the peg between the yuan and the dollar is a good thing (GT). It is not. It is a Bad Thing (BT) as you will soon see.

more...

[54anickel]

25. Inflation Worriers, Dollar Pessimists (Kudlow, for a laugh)

So who sounds nuttier, Mogambo or Kudlow? :evilgrin:

http://www.nationalreview.com/kudlow/kudlow200411111107.asp

As the whole world expected, the Federal Reserve continued its policy of normalizing short-term rates by raising its policy target to 2 percent this week. Since last June the fed funds rate has doubled, but long-term rates have defied conventional wisdom by actually falling. This is a great sign that neither actual nor expected inflation is a problem.


So far in the Bush recovery cycle the inflation worriers have been wrong. In fact, lower marginal tax rates put into action by the president have contributed to minimal inflation and sustainable economic growth.

It’s interesting that even many supply-siders have forgotten the counter-inflationary impact of lower taxes. Stronger employment and higher investment are responses to lower tax rates. Therefore, increased production and economic growth are absorbing excess money and holding down inflation. Over the past year the consumer spending deflator has increased only 2 percent, while the core inflation measure (excluding energy) is a miniscule 1.5 percent.

snip>

First of all, the dollar is fundamentally undervalued right now. With the U.S. economic-recovery miracle continuing to build, and with the successful battle of Fallujah moving us closer to democratic elections in Iraq, the dollar is actually poised for a major rally. But perhaps only optimists can see this.

For now, the real problem with the dollar is not so much that the Fed is too loose, but much more that the euro is way too tight. Just as with foreign policy, Old Europe has the monetary story wrong. The creation of new euros is way too stingy; it is in fact still deflationary.

more...

[UpInArms]

26. OMG! this freak of nature must be on the propaganda payroll!

First of all, the dollar is fundamentally undervalued right now. With the U.S. economic-recovery miracle continuing to build, and with the successful battle of Fallujah moving us closer to democratic elections in Iraq, the dollar is actually poised for a major rally. But perhaps only optimists can see this.

Hohohohahahahahohohohohohahahahaha!

ROFLMAO!

[54anickel]

22. Bush Policy: Talk a Strong Dollar But Let It Slide

http://online.wsj.com/article_print/0%2C%2CSB110003805570769297%2C00.html

The Bush administration, which officially professes a "strong dollar" policy, is quietly acceding to the dollar's slide on global currency markets.

Indeed, government and Federal Reserve officials and many private economists believe the economic fundamentals point to a lower dollar. But Washington doesn't want to encourage the decline or say anything that might undermine confidence in the dollar and risk a disruptive avalanche of dollar-selling.

The result has been a delicate minuet, in which administration officials speak gingerly if at all about the dollar and instead devote their energy toward another, related issue: China's currency, the yuan. China pegs the yuan to the dollar and the U.S. wants China to let it float, which would almost certainly cause it to rise against the dollar. Without yuan appreciation, U.S. officials fear that currencies in Europe and Japan would bear the brunt of the dollar's depreciation, hurting their exports and restraining their already-weak economies.

snip>

The catalyst for its most recent decline was President George W. Bush's re-election last Tuesday. Investors perceive his policies as likely to aggravate the steep U.S. budget deficit.

snip>

U.S. and foreign policy makers agree there are three main ways the current-account deficit could be narrowed. The U.S. could save more, such as by cutting its budget deficit. Foreign countries could grow faster, increasing their appetite for U.S. exports. Or the dollar could fall. That would make U.S. exports cheaper in foreign markets, enabling it to sell more, while making imports costlier, decreasing U.S. consumption of them. Together, that would narrow the trade deficit and thus the current-account deficit. European and U.S. policy makers mostly advocate the first two methods, but also realize that the lower dollar will play a part. A lower dollar, by raising import prices, could raise inflation and thus force the Fed to raise interest rates more, curbing U.S. consumption of domestically produced and imported goods.

more...

[54anickel]

24. 12:12 update

Dow 10,442.26 +56.78 (+0.55%)
Nasdaq 2,047.99 +13.43 (+0.66%)
S&P 500 1,169.44 +6.53 (+0.56%)
10-yr Bond 4.254% 0.00
30-yr Bond 4.965% -0.011
NYSE Volume 584,478,000
Nasdaq Volume 798,198,000

11:30AM: Major indices still above water but have pulled back from their highs on acount of profit taking... The overall tone remains positive despite the lighter volumes observed on the exchanges (as the bond market remains closed), which potentially exposes stocks to more volatile action... The market, however, has held its ground from yesterday in the face of a fourth consecutive Fed rate hike... The past three days in the market have been relatively lackluster, and buyers have re-emerged today in an extension of the indices' winning streak over the past two weeks...
Briefing.com continues to believe that the S&P 500 is set to end the year with gains, as investors put the election behind them and focus on the still strong earnings picture... NYSE Adv/Dec 1862/1133, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1555/1249

11:00AM: Major indices touch their highs of the morning as oil hits new session lows ($47.65/bbl -$1.21)... However, failing to make a contribution to the upside are software rivals PeopleSoft (PSFT 22.26 --0.53) and Oracle (ORCL 12.97 -0.41)... PSFT remains under pressure after it rejected Oracle's latest and final hostile takeover bid of $24 a share, or roughly $8.8 bln... Meanwhile, concerns also linger regarding the mixed guidance issued by PSFT last night - the company said it sees Q4 EPS of $0.20 to $0.22, versus the consensus of $0.19, on revenues of $700-715 mln (consensus is $722.9 mln)NYSE Adv/Dec 1704/1202, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1458/1261

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 2045 (62%) 1641 (54%)
Declines 1036 (31%) 1228 (40%)
Unchanged 180 (5%) 162 (5%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 347 (64%) 526 (69%)
Down Vol* 183 (34%) 222 (29%)
Unch. Vol* 6 (1%) 10 (1%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 207 127
New Lo's 9 16

[NewYorkerfromMass]

28. Bush bounce real (Bush winning)

http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=3387325

[llmart]

31. What a bunch of puke-inducing propaganda.....

I'm sorry I clicked on the link. Makes me wonder what my family and friends must be doing wrong. Our financial situations still suck as they have for the past 4 years, but I'm supposed to ignore my reality and jump on the bandwagon because the wealthy stockholders are happy?

[54anickel]

29. 2:04 update - then I've gotta run for the day

Dow 10,459.44 +73.96 (+0.71%)
Nasdaq 2,051.20 +16.64 (+0.82%)
S&P 500 1,171.24 +8.33 (+0.72%)
10-yr Bond 4.254% 0.00
30-yr Bond 4.965% -0.011
NYSE Volume 851,559,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,125,826,000

1:35PM: Indices hold steady in positive territory, but volumes have dropped off some as the market has entered the lunch hour... Still under tremendous pressure from sellers are shares of Oracle (ORCL 12.86 -0.52) and PeopleSoft (PSFT 22.32 -0.47)... PSFT has lost ground as management indicated last night it will be refuting ORCL's latest offer, which valed PSFT at $24 a share or about $8.8 bln... Shareholders in ORCL, which accounts for roughly 2.2% of the Nasdaq's value, are frustrated with PSFT's refusal to comply with the hostile takeover attempt... NYSE Adv/Dec 2144/1017, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1684/1281

1:00PM: Buyers remain in control of the indices as stocks continue to boast noticeable gains... Virtually every industry group has participated in the uptick, with technology and financial - two large components of the S&P 500 - spearheading the move higher... Energy, conversely, has been the only notable laggard in response to the steady decline in the price of crude oil... The commodity is now near its session lows, at $47.40/bbl.... The fall in the price of crude oil, particularly after yesterday's gains, has been a primary reason behind the afternoon's buying drive...

Meanwhile, the appointments of new CFOs at wireless service provider and Dow component Verizon (VZ 41.35 +0.18) and S&P 500 constituent OfficeMax (OMX 31.70 +0.06) are lending support to their share prices... NYSE Adv/Dec 2168/987, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1709/1210

[UpInArms]

30. Mortgage Rates Up on Economic Signs

http://www.forbes.com/business/manufacturing/feeds/ap/2004/11/11/ap1649600.html

Mortgage rates around the country climbed this week as Wall Street investors responded to some encouraging signs that the economy is gaining traction.

Rates on 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages averaged 5.76 percent for the week ending Nov. 11, Freddie Mac said in its weekly survey released Thursday. That was up from 5.70 percent last week.

Rates on 30-year mortgages hit a high this year of 6.34 percent the week of May 13. After that, rates, while bouncing around, drifted lower as economic activity had cooled a bit, easing inflation fears.

Wall Street investors more recently were buoyed by a government report, issued on Nov. 5, showing the economy added a sizable 337,000 jobs in October, the most in seven months.

"October's fervent job growth statistics ... led financial markets to believe the economy is picking up steam," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac's chief economist. "The end result translates into higher long-term mortgage rates this week."

...more...

[UpInArms]

32. closing numbers

Dow 10,469.84 +84.36 (+0.81%)
Nasdaq 2,061.27 +26.71 (+1.31%)
S&P 500 1,173.48 +10.57 (+0.91%)
10-Yr Bond 4.254% +0.000

NYSE Volume 1,397,064,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,755,370,000

and outdated blather (closing blather not in yet)

3:30PM: Market showing no signs of slowing going into the close... The renewed wave of buying has inched the Dow closer to its best levels since June, which is less than 300 points off its February highs,while the Nasdaq has just broken through its 2055 resistance level... But while the most active on the Nasdaq has been Microsoft (MSFT 29.92 +0.19) to the upside, the volume leader on the Big Board has been Nortel (NT ), which is off more than 6.0% late in the day after announcing plans to delay the release of its quarterly release and restate $3.1 bln in revenues...

Speaking of results, there are just a handful of companies reporting quarterly earnings after the close, and all eyes will be on Dell (DELL 37.20 +0.35)... Analysts expect Dell to report EPS of at least $0.33 on revenues of $12.5 bln... Other notable mentions are Kohl's (KSS 52.77 +0.57), Pixar (PIXR 79.34 +2.08) and Agilent (A 25.59 +0.54)... NYSE Adv/Dec 2314/948, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1879/1163

3:00PM: Market breadth continues to widen as advancing issues on the Big Board enjoy a more than 2 to 1 edge over decliners while on the Nasdaq advancing issues are clearly outpacing decliners... Blue chips are on the move and even battery makers are getting in on the action flirting with new 52-week highs... Rayovac (ROV 28.15 +3.18), third in line behind industry leader Gilette (G 44.16 +0.22), beat analysts' expectations this morning with earnings of $0.60 per share on revenues of $351 mln...

Gilette, which owns Duracell, hasn't hit $44 a share since June while No. 2 battery maker Energizer Holdings (ENR 46.45 +1.19) is now just two bucks off its highs for the year...

[54anickel]

33. Closing blather - Oh happy days are here again!

Close: Stocks began the day trading higher, with Yasser Arafat's death sparking renewed optimism that peace can be restored in the Middle East... That in turn pressured speculators to surrender positions in December crude oil futures throughout the session, with oil falling towards $46/bbl after lunch before closing down almost 3% at $47.50/bbl... Sectors taking advantage early on were airlines and other transportation-related sectors, while energy gave up gains made a day earlier...
Cheaper oil, however, was only one factor playing into the market's slow climb higher - a sense that investors would miss out on a year-end rally prompted more buying interest and short covering throughout the day... The fact that the indices made their way through a series of resistance levels, without succumbing to selling interest, only reinforced the idea that the market was poised for further gains... Technology was the leader of the rally, as every sub-sector from semiconductor to disk drive took part in an advance that pushed the Nasdaq through levels not seen since late June...

Contributing to the tech rally was news of a new CEO at Intel (INTC 23.17 +0.31), a Merrill Lynch upgrade on Advance Micro Devices (AMD 18.59 +1.30), and growing confidence that Dell (DELL 37.25 +0.40) would again report strong quarterly results (the company reported EPS of $0.33, in line with analysts' expectations)... Such strength in these areas was enough to offset weakness in software makers Oracle (ORCL 13.14 -0.24) and PeopleSoft (PSFT 22.43 -0.36) following news PeopleSoft's management rejected Oracle's final offer price... Areas in the blue chips that exhibited relative weakness included beverage, in response to Coca-Cola's (KO 40.92 -0.25) warning that it was slashing long-term sales and profit targets...NYSE Adv/Dec 2414/885, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2041/1063

[54anickel]

34. Whoops, forgot the buck, drifted down all day long. Currently at it's low

for the day at 84.19

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=s

Last trade 84.19 Change -0.09 (-0.11%)

Settle 84.37 Settle Time 16:49

Open 84.41 Previous Close 84.43

High 84.56 Low 84.19