A little electoral college calculus.

[longship]

18. Yes, I know about Nate.

He has great intentions, and I do not disassociate from that. However, I remain skeptical of any such tweaking of the data. In science, that would get a smack down.

On the other hand, polisci is not an exact science. If he has a model that works, more power to him. The proof is in the pudding. I doubt that his model will work. However, I have little doubt that Obama will win.

We will see how accurate the polls are. Those which end up being accurate will claim success. But that will be merely the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy, shooting a gun at the side of a barn, then walking over and painting a bulls eye around the bullet hole. It is a post hoc justification.

Polling is only valid when the methodology is consistently predictive, which almost never happens.

It is a messy business. Predicting human behavior is not easy.