2016 Postmortem

Ed Suspicious

(8,879 posts)

35. I really hope you have the ear of someone important

Reply to MineralMan (Original post)

Mon Nov 23, 2015, 03:27 PM

Nov 2015

Last edited Mon Nov 23, 2015, 04:28 PM - Edit history (1)

at Clinton headquarters.

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What if we concede the NH and IA primary and caucus to Sanders? [View all] MineralMan Nov 2015 OP

Candidates who get early wins see a bump in the polls nationwide. HerbChestnut Nov 2015 #1

That can happen, certainly. MineralMan Nov 2015 #3

I just used Obama as an example. HerbChestnut Nov 2015 #10

Actually, I don't think those wins would have as large an MineralMan Nov 2015 #16

You're inserting personal preference into your calculations. Kentonio Nov 2015 #19

I suggest giving this a read. sleepyvoter Nov 2015 #63

This is not 2008. MineralMan Nov 2015 #66

Same script, different candidate this time. sleepyvoter Nov 2015 #106

From the belly of the beast... morningglory Nov 2015 #127

If you know the answer, why ask the question? Bernblu Nov 2015 #115

Because he has nothing else to do. Major Hogwash Nov 2015 #119

Is his campaign hoping for a bandwagon effect? NurseJackie Nov 2015 #2

Undecideds don't really make up a large enough group MineralMan Nov 2015 #4

You're thinking of elections as static rather than dynamic Bernblu Nov 2015 #116

It's not just undecideds that would be influenced. HerbChestnut Nov 2015 #11

I'm unaware of these polls. NurseJackie Nov 2015 #22

You being unaware does not mean they don't exist. jeff47 Nov 2015 #43

If my hastily worded subject line gave you that impression then Im heartily sorry for the confusion. NurseJackie Nov 2015 #49

And only my subject line was in response to your subject line. jeff47 Nov 2015 #52

You're very optimistic. But it doesn't seem to be very realistic to me. NurseJackie Nov 2015 #57

Well, if you were correct, 2008 was impossible. jeff47 Nov 2015 #59

It's not 2008. Sanders is not Obama. Webb & Chafee (and O'Malley) are not John Edwards. NurseJackie Nov 2015 #75

"Sanders is not Obama" is irrelevant to your analysis. jeff47 Nov 2015 #76

Yes, Sanders is not Obama is VERY relevant to the discussion . He was the transformative riversedge Nov 2015 #78

Not when the claim is voters do not change their mind. jeff47 Nov 2015 #83

Sanders has limited appeal. He's definitely not transformative. NurseJackie Nov 2015 #105

Yes, Sanders is not Obama but he has his own strengths as a candidate and is running on a Bernblu Nov 2015 #117

"People change their mind all the time" is irrelevant. NurseJackie Nov 2015 #79

So...despite your argument having zero historical precedent, you are right. jeff47 Nov 2015 #82

Duck Season! NurseJackie Nov 2015 #84

Yes, when history disagrees with your gut, always go with your gut. (nt) jeff47 Nov 2015 #86

Duck Season! NurseJackie Nov 2015 #87

HRC being over 50% and there being no third candidate with meaningful support hack89 Nov 2015 #81

Yes, she did lose support. Do you really think we can't see polling from 8 years ago? jeff47 Nov 2015 #85

Her support remained relatively stable hack89 Nov 2015 #88

Yea, Edward's 11% really was responsible for Obama going up 30%. jeff47 Nov 2015 #90

So HRC dropped 5 points while Obama gained 25 points hack89 Nov 2015 #94

Good thing the topic wasn't "This is a carbon copy of 2008!!!" jeff47 Nov 2015 #95

If HRC's support in 2015 mirrors 2008, Bernie is fucked hack89 Nov 2015 #96

We'll see in a few months. (nt) jeff47 Nov 2015 #97

I will be glad when the primaries are over hack89 Nov 2015 #99

Anger! Yes, that's other the Kübler-Ross step I neglected to mention. NurseJackie Nov 2015 #93

Good effort, but, Bernies voters are so desperate for SOMETHING to cling to, NurseJackie Nov 2015 #91

No one is saying that Sanders is Obama CoffeeCat Nov 2015 #103

But there are also fundamental differences between 2008 and 2015 hack89 Nov 2015 #112

One key factor is now involved: We all know who HRC is, and she is not trustworthy. Floyd Steinberg Nov 2015 #133

Yet polls show her to be the overwhelming favorite of Democrats hack89 Nov 2015 #134

Uh, Hillary supporters are allowed to change their mind. Dawgs Nov 2015 #20

(Scroll up. See previous post. I've touched on that.) NurseJackie Nov 2015 #23

i think we need to keep in mind restorefreedom Nov 2015 #46

I'm so confused. Just recently I saw someone suggesting that Hillary had NurseJackie Nov 2015 #51

she looks quite wary. restorefreedom Nov 2015 #77

Sure all primary voting will be done on line upaloopa Nov 2015 #5

lol nt BootinUp Nov 2015 #6

LOL! Well, he's already winning all 50 primaries MineralMan Nov 2015 #7

+1 JustAnotherGen Nov 2015 #8

LOL leftofcool Nov 2015 #62

You can't even look at other state polls at this point... CoffeeCat Nov 2015 #9

Actually, you can look at polling in MineralMan Nov 2015 #13

Oh believe me...I am just as wonky as you... CoffeeCat Nov 2015 #34

Path? Plan? too much effort and too soon for that for me Jarqui Nov 2015 #12

If Sanders wins NH and Iowa Bernblu Nov 2015 #118

Who's"we"? 99Forever Nov 2015 #14

We all define it differently, I think. MineralMan Nov 2015 #15

Post this in 2007 and replace Sanders with Obama and you would know the answer. n/t Dawgs Nov 2015 #17

Sanders and Obama are not equivalents. MineralMan Nov 2015 #24

My point isn't that they're the same. It's that the election is far from over. Dawgs Nov 2015 #27

My "opinion don't mean shit..." MineralMan Nov 2015 #28

Uh no, they are not the same leftofcool Nov 2015 #65

Thankfully, yes. Dawgs Nov 2015 #73

You're correct. 99Forever Nov 2015 #98

I couldn't agree more tularetom Nov 2015 #53

He'll have no better luck than any Democrat with that. MineralMan Nov 2015 #55

That's certainly true but that wasn't your point tularetom Nov 2015 #64

The point is that Sanders does not appear to have a MineralMan Nov 2015 #69

"Post this in 2007 and replace Sanders with Obama and you would know the answer." NCTraveler Nov 2015 #45

Obama had one of the greatest ground games Codeine Nov 2015 #48

Sanders has a huge ground game across the country. Volunteers have set up weekly meetups and events peacebird Nov 2015 #56

Meetups, info tables, and reddits do not Codeine Nov 2015 #61

You missed the bit about phone banking? Oh, and yes door to door walk abouts too. peacebird Nov 2015 #67

You make a good point... CoffeeCat Nov 2015 #109

Conceeding those two primaries creates a route, because the people themselves will see Sanders Agnosticsherbet Nov 2015 #18

I think we can call the polling misleading and barge ahead if the MSM is hailing Clinton there must Todays_Illusion Nov 2015 #21

Giuliani tried that in 2007-2008. It didn't work well: Attorney in Texas Nov 2015 #25

You seem to know alot about previous Republican primaries. DCBob Nov 2015 #26

I know even more about Democratic primaries (with special emphasis on 2008) Attorney in Texas Nov 2015 #30

Should prove useful next time you advocate for Republicans here on du SwampG8r Nov 2015 #32

No kidding? Florida Democrats loves them a repentant Ed Suspicious Nov 2015 #36

yup tbis guy SwampG8r Nov 2015 #122

You are confused as usual.. Crist was running as an Independent. DCBob Nov 2015 #107

he never came near winning SwampG8r Nov 2015 #123

Had Democrats joined forces around the stronger candidate we could have beaten Rubio. DCBob Nov 2015 #124

had "democrats" supported meek the elected dem SwampG8r Nov 2015 #125

Do you not understand Florida state politics?? DCBob Nov 2015 #128

throwing it to the republican by supporti g the democrat? SwampG8r Nov 2015 #131

Your narrow mindset is what gave us Rubio. DCBob Nov 2015 #132

your advocacy for non democrats gave us rubio SwampG8r Nov 2015 #135

The problem with that is that Giuliani's numbers MineralMan Nov 2015 #29

Because as other campaigns were actively campaigning and getting news coverage, Giuliani was on the Attorney in Texas Nov 2015 #33

That would be a good start. Warren Stupidity Nov 2015 #31

I really hope you have the ear of someone important Ed Suspicious Nov 2015 #35

I know absolutely nobody in Clinton's campaign. MineralMan Nov 2015 #47

He would be relying on momentum firebrand80 Nov 2015 #37

I'm not happy about this: Betty Karlson Nov 2015 #38

Its just a discussion, speculation, jeebus. nt BootinUp Nov 2015 #41

Not going to concede that, lol! MoonRiver Nov 2015 #39

Yes. I think she'll win Iowa, too. I'm less sure of New Hampshire. MineralMan Nov 2015 #50

Her internal polling suggests she will win NH. leftofcool Nov 2015 #68

Too close to call for me. MineralMan Nov 2015 #74

Eric Cantor's internal polling suggested a lot of things, too. WorseBeforeBetter Nov 2015 #113

Agree with everything you said. MoonRiver Nov 2015 #89

"We" aren't conceding anything. LWolf Nov 2015 #40

If we had a simultaneous national election, you might have a point. jeff47 Nov 2015 #42

I know this doesn't follow your line of questioning. NCTraveler Nov 2015 #44

That could still happen, of course. MineralMan Nov 2015 #54

I think that is highly unlikely to happen. I think Bernie will do far better than you would like peacebird Nov 2015 #58

I think he could I just don't see it happening after the last two months we have witnessed. NCTraveler Nov 2015 #70

I think a clean sweep is very likely. leftofcool Nov 2015 #71

I'd like to see that too, Codeine Nov 2015 #72

LOL!! You mean the "meh" candidate that 30% of Democrats don't like. Dawgs Nov 2015 #92

There is no realistic plan or path for Bernie. Alfresco Nov 2015 #60

You can concede anything you like... sonofspy777 Nov 2015 #80

In 2008, President Obama outperformed Clinton in the Iowa caucus with superior organization Gothmog Nov 2015 #100

Long run. Super Tuesday is going to pretty much decide both nominations underpants Nov 2015 #101

I am not as sure about this for the GOP primary process Gothmog Nov 2015 #102

I didn't know that underpants Nov 2015 #104

Sanders is likely to win all the blue states. Kalidurga Nov 2015 #108

I won't concede any states to him BainsBane Nov 2015 #110

If Bernie wins Iowa and New Hampshire and survives Super Tuesday 72DejaVu Nov 2015 #111

I see no other states as possible wins. bravenak Nov 2015 #114

Pipe dream plans Alfresco Nov 2015 #120

You don't get it. And that's ok. berni_mccoy Nov 2015 #121

Not going to happen. :-) BlueCaliDem Nov 2015 #126

All the gnashing of teeth and vitriol cannot change the 94% probability that Alfresco Nov 2015 #129

not willing to concede anything to Bernie at this point. Sheepshank Nov 2015 #130

Where's his path to a convention majority? What's his plan? Anyone know? Alfresco Nov 2015 #136

A reality kick Alfresco Dec 2015 #137