PPP (D) Clinton 59% Sanders 26% O'Malley 7% Former Sec of State performs best against GO(PU)

[CoffeeCat]

22. With all due respect...

Last edited Thu Nov 19, 2015, 03:55 PM - Edit history (1)

Bernie was polling at 4 percent in Iowa. According to the latest CBS News/NYT poll, as well as CNN and Fox News (among others), he's at about 31 percent.

That is a massive increase.

Obama did the same thing. The same trajectory. He was polling in the single digits in Iowa, and steadily climbed.

Obama didn't even overtake Hillary Clinton in the Iowa polls until November 14 (ABC/Washington Post poll), where he finally was ahead of Clinton 30/26.

It takes a while for these numbers to gel. The Iowa caucus season has barely begun. It's important to remember that the Iowa caucus was Jan 3 in 2008. That's a month earlier than this year. These campaigns are just getting started, and Sanders has steadily increased.

I wish he was ahead. Of course. However, one cannot deny that he has gained significant growth, despite Hillary's name recognition and familiarity. Iowa knows Hillary well--and she managed to lose 35 points in Iowa over the summer. She's gained back some of that ground (but not all). Iowa support for her is very soft, and all it's going to take is this caucus season getting into high gear (phone calling, canvassing, the ground game, public speeches, advertising, etc.) and the numbers will change more in Bernie's direction.

Another thing to remember is that the optics will favor Bernie. He's going to amass huge crowds, most likely in indoor stadiums/large venues. He's going to generate a great deal of enthusiasm. So far, Hillary has been unable to attract the 10,000+ crowds that Bernie has. This will have an effect on Iowans as well.