2016 Postmortem

Sancho

(9,067 posts)

10. Ok...I followed links...two polls out today. Hillary ahead in both in Iowa

Wed Sep 2, 2015, 02:35 PM

Sep 2015

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-iowa-presidential-democratic-primary

One is Gravis: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-iowa-presidential-democratic-primary

The other is Loras College: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/loras-college-22651

Both are similar, about the same 45 to 17; 48 to 23 Hillary over Sanders.

Both about a thousand LVers.

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Another new Iowa poll out today: Hillary 45%-Bernie 17% [View all] SonderWoman Sep 2015 OP

"Gravis Polling Exposed as a Fraud" researched by grantcart circa 2012. AtomicKitten Sep 2015 #1

That post is from 2012. SonderWoman Sep 2015 #3

And its facts are accurate. Scootaloo Sep 2015 #32

Maybe they improved their polling methodology? Cali_Democrat Sep 2015 #4

They only seem to question the bad Bernie polls. SonderWoman Sep 2015 #7

Des Moines Register/Bloomberg has been the standard-bearer for Iowa polling. AtomicKitten Sep 2015 #9

Yet, no one on team Bern calls good Bernie polls "outliers". SonderWoman Sep 2015 #12

it has nothing to do with good or bad, it has to do with accuracy AtomicKitten Sep 2015 #13

Oh, I thought you guys were concerned about "trends". SonderWoman Sep 2015 #16

Bernie's trend line is UP, Hillary's is DOWN. That's a fact. AtomicKitten Sep 2015 #18

Quick, which number is really different 34, 7, 25, 28 Godhumor Sep 2015 #14

Quick, which pollster is considered the gold standard in Iowa, and rated A+ virtualobserver Sep 2015 #17

Even the best have bad polls, and other independent results don't support Selzar's conclusions Godhumor Sep 2015 #20

time will tell virtualobserver Sep 2015 #21

Honestly, the last DM poll from late May implies the most recent fal outside the confidence interval Godhumor Sep 2015 #26

keep telling yourself that virtualobserver Sep 2015 #28

Interesting that the only person who alleged that Gravis Marketing is a fraud was.... George II Sep 2015 #56

Post removed Post removed Sep 2015 #62

Of course you turn that around and avoid the obvious fact that Gravis Marketing is NOT.... George II Sep 2015 #64

Your links are all DU posts? Doingto Sep 2015 #67

a plethora of links lie within AtomicKitten Sep 2015 #69

But Warren is at 13%... ram2008 Sep 2015 #2

Go ahead and unskew Godhumor Sep 2015 #5

Here is the link to the aggregate polling DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2015 #11

I see a pretty clear trend... ram2008 Sep 2015 #31

If you look at the five most recent polls she is at 48%, 50%, and 54% in three of them DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2015 #34

I don't think that changes the trend... ram2008 Sep 2015 #35

These trends aren't linear... DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2015 #37

So far theres no evidence of reversion ram2008 Sep 2015 #38

Please bookmark this post DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2015 #40

Bernie will do better with whites and slightly worse than Obama with minorities ram2008 Sep 2015 #42

Please bookmark this post DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2015 #43

He doesn't need to if Biden is also splitting the minority vote ram2008 Sep 2015 #46

I let everybody speak for themselves... DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2015 #51

Which is changeable once people start paying more attention ram2008 Sep 2015 #55

Well DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2015 #57

Again its the pattern that's alarming ram2008 Sep 2015 #59

Despite the pillorying she is doing quite well... DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2015 #60

We will see ram2008 Sep 2015 #61

Slightly worse than (President) Obama with "minorities" ... 1StrongBlackMan Sep 2015 #63

I don't see anything holding him back ram2008 Sep 2015 #66

a legitimate poll wouldn't be polling Warren at this stage virtualobserver Sep 2015 #19

Besides my point. You can't just assume Warren voters will go 85% to Sanders Godhumor Sep 2015 #23

I don't assume it, but they did in NH.... virtualobserver Sep 2015 #25

I'm a Warren supporter who is now voting for Hillary. SonderWoman Sep 2015 #15

And most of the Biden voters would be Clinton voters. George II Sep 2015 #30

What are Lieberman and Kerry polling at this year, I wonder? Scootaloo Sep 2015 #33

Seem to go along with a separate poll out today too. Sancho Sep 2015 #6

True. SonderWoman Sep 2015 #8

Ok...I followed links...two polls out today. Hillary ahead in both in Iowa Sancho Sep 2015 #10

Good news. Thanks riversedge Sep 2015 #65

The Worst Poll in America cali Sep 2015 #22

Isn't Iowa becoming increasingly irrelevant as a weather vane? Puzzledtraveller Sep 2015 #24

That was the LAST poll that showed Sanders gaining Armstead Sep 2015 #36

I get it. Puzzledtraveller Sep 2015 #41

It wasn't the other day when a poll declared Sanders "in striking distance", but......... George II Sep 2015 #39

Here is today's pie chart for the Sept. 1 2015 poll: George II Sep 2015 #27

First of all, that's not a pie chart... HerbChestnut Sep 2015 #44

Sorry, I typed too fast, obviously meant bar chart (many of the charts on the page below are.... George II Sep 2015 #48

Fair enough, but why include Warren? HerbChestnut Sep 2015 #50

It's not my poll, I just provided the numbers. George II Sep 2015 #53

True, except... HerbChestnut Sep 2015 #54

Message auto-removed Name removed Sep 2015 #58

No, and no. Where did you find that 3 year old story? George II Sep 2015 #70

Why are they including Warren? arcane1 Sep 2015 #29

Great question. HerbChestnut Sep 2015 #45

Her inclusion okasha Sep 2015 #72

It's disingenuous to post that headline... HerbChestnut Sep 2015 #47

See post 15. SonderWoman Sep 2015 #49

I said most. HerbChestnut Sep 2015 #52

No. Everyone doesn't know that Doingto Sep 2015 #68

Even if you add Warren's support to Sanders's, HRC is still up 2-1 Persondem Sep 2015 #71

k&r R B Garr Sep 2015 #73