2016 Postmortem

leftynyc

(26,060 posts)

85. Has it occurred to you that

Wed Jul 1, 2015, 12:46 PM

Jul 2015

that staffer said what he said so Hillary's supporters don't get complacent and actually get out there and vote? Because, to me, you sound like all those "unskewed polls" people that we all laughed at in 2012. Some polls are good, some are not.

Edit history

Please sign in to view edit histories.

106 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

CNN-0RC Poll Clinton 54%-Bush 41%/Clinton 56%-Rubio 39%/Clinton 57%-Walker -38% [View all] DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 OP

WOWZA! ! DCBob Jul 2015 #1

The primaries and general are largely a referendum on BHO as HRC is implicitly running... DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #3

Shhhh....that Obama's poll numbers are also solid over time and now soaring also must not be spoken too loudly. Fred Sanders Jul 2015 #15

I really like the president and am going to miss him./nt DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #16

Fuck, he has 18 more months to fuck up the Republican fascist agenda real good, my focus is Fred Sanders Jul 2015 #24

Do we dispatch of the wounded or try to rehabilitate them?/nt DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #25

The killed we pretend to honor, just to annoy them some more, the wounded we confine to quarters. Fred Sanders Jul 2015 #26

There should be voluntary re-education camps. That will ease their paranoia./nt DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #27

We already have that. They are called Churches...so maybe just change the curriculum? Fred Sanders Jul 2015 #29

Give 'em the Rush Limbaugh treatment...in reverse. AnnetteJacobs Jul 2015 #40

These modern day "conservatives" and their dinosaur ideology does belong in a museum....with actual dinosaurs. Fred Sanders Jul 2015 #45

... DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #77

I am too. But I am so excited about a President (Hillary) Clinton! MoonRiver Jul 2015 #78

'In Obama I Trust'! Millions of lives better. Love always wins! We're smiling: freshwest Jul 2015 #106

I hadn't thought of it that way at all! But she has promised to build and expand on his work. Still freshwest Jul 2015 #105

Looking good. Go Hillary. DanTex Jul 2015 #2

But what about Trump? 6chars Jul 2015 #4

Trump will drop out before he has to reveal his finances. onehandle Jul 2015 #5

i predict he seriously embarrasses himself at least once before then 6chars Jul 2015 #6

Maybe he will go independent Rosa Luxemburg Jul 2015 #73

I think he will. MoonRiver Jul 2015 #80

34% would vote for Trump...makes me weep for one third of Americans. Fred Sanders Jul 2015 #14

Probably the same group that voted for Sarah Palin Rosa Luxemburg Jul 2015 #72

What's really troubling and downright offensive is that Bush gets 41%. WTF? Who the KingCharlemagne Jul 2015 #7

Party loyalty being what it is, sir, David Sweat could run for pres with a (R) after his name... DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #8

Yeah, I guess you're right. But I still find the 41% figure deeply offensive. - nt KingCharlemagne Jul 2015 #10

Hillary 57% with the Democrats! OKNancy Jul 2015 #9

Big showing for Biden, should he enter the race will significantly change. Agschmid Jul 2015 #21

Sanders has still not punched through Biden's support (which continues to rise). OilemFirchen Jul 2015 #22

72% of dems think she has the best chance of winning the general Rose Siding Jul 2015 #75

Hillary's Campaign Manager:“A lot of the public polling is not very reliable" antigop Jul 2015 #11

"Any port in a storm..." /nt DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #13

So is this an "unreliable" poll? nt antigop Jul 2015 #17

You would have to ask Mr. Mook./nt DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #19

so we don't know whether it's a reliable poll or not, do we? nt antigop Jul 2015 #28

One way to decrease the margin of error scientifically is to do an averaging of all the recent polls...which are near identical. Fred Sanders Jul 2015 #30

Would you be happier if our presumptive nominee was trailing their presumptive nominees... DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #34

I just asked a simple question. Is it a "reliable" poll or not? nt antigop Jul 2015 #38

IMHO, CNN is a reliable news source./nt DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #44

so we don't know if this is one of the "unreliable" polls Hillary's campaign manager was talking antigop Jul 2015 #47

We know that Hillary is doing well in veritable potpourri of polls, except the FOX one. DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #52

and we don't know whether "potpourri of polls" are reliable or not. nt antigop Jul 2015 #59

I don't believe it's logical to assume all or most of the available public polling is wrong./nt DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #67

Mook said "A lot of the public polling is not very reliable." nt antigop Jul 2015 #70

One of the ways to judge their reliabilty okasha Jul 2015 #88

I think Mook does not want anyone to get too comfortable--and that riversedge Jul 2015 #66

hey guys, I gotta go to my day job. I'm not paid to sit around and post on DU all day. nt antigop Jul 2015 #96

FFS.... Adrahil Jul 2015 #54

it's a simple question: is it reliable or not? We don't know. nt antigop Jul 2015 #58

Dear jeebus... you're like a climate denier. Adrahil Jul 2015 #62

we have a saying in the computer industry...GIGO. antigop Jul 2015 #82

That's why past history matters. Adrahil Jul 2015 #90

Whst's your position on unicorns? okasha Jul 2015 #89

And I said that if you look at the aggregate of the data... Adrahil Jul 2015 #51

not if the other polls are unreliable. We don't know which are reliable and which aren't. antigop Jul 2015 #61

Yes, they could ALL be wrong... Adrahil Jul 2015 #63

we don't know how many are wrong and how many aren't. nt antigop Jul 2015 #65

The Law Of Large Numbers suggests if you aggregate all the polls, "good" and "bad" you should ... DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #76

no, "a lot" of them are not very reliable, according to Mook. antigop Jul 2015 #81

For all of the young man's talents he lacks the ability to repeal The Law Of Large Numbers./nt DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #83

GIGO still applies. You aggregate garbage, you get garbage. nt antigop Jul 2015 #84

Has it occurred to you that leftynyc Jul 2015 #85

has it occured to you that maybe Mook is right? nt antigop Jul 2015 #94

That ALL polls are bad? leftynyc Jul 2015 #98

No, as the size of the sample increases the result becomes more robust. It's a scientific principle. DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #86

Given their past success, what's your basis for assuming garbage in? nt Adrahil Jul 2015 #92

Which is why past performance matters. Adrahil Jul 2015 #91

No you can't rely on a "lot" of them, per Mook...so I can't rely on a "lot" of them. antigop Jul 2015 #93

Did the young man repeal statistical sampling? DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #99

We don't pay mooks. OilemFirchen Jul 2015 #101

She's right, but a lot of it is. Adrahil Jul 2015 #31

so we don't know whether it's a reliable poll or not. Thank you. nt antigop Jul 2015 #33

That's not what I said. Adrahil Jul 2015 #35

but we don't know for sure. Thank you. nt antigop Jul 2015 #36

Don't know what for sure?/nt DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #41

What the hell does that mean? Adrahil Jul 2015 #48

I think you should keep your head in the leftynyc Jul 2015 #87

In the NBC poll without JB it was HRC 75%-BS 15% DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #39

Agreed, though I think Bernie will top 20% nationally by the Fall. Adrahil Jul 2015 #49

I am an empiricist so whom I support is really of no moment. DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #53

I think you're likely right. Adrahil Jul 2015 #56

I did post grad work in Poli Sci so I love to look at data... DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #64

Eight more years in the WH and the failure of the Koch Brothers, Maria law, and Fox - stay focused and united people. Fred Sanders Jul 2015 #12

I find support for Jeb Bush disturbing..it should be close to zero. He is no different than Jefferson23 Jul 2015 #18

Wow! Agschmid Jul 2015 #20

kick to find later. n/t hootinholler Jul 2015 #23

Interesting Poll Adrahil Jul 2015 #32

Good numbers. JaneyVee Jul 2015 #37

Why is Biden on the Democratic candidate list? blackspade Jul 2015 #42

CNN looking to generate news? DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #43

Maybe, but it undermines the whole poll. blackspade Jul 2015 #46

Those are good questions DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #55

Because he hasn't said he won't run, I guess. Adrahil Jul 2015 #50

I love Joe but it's probably too late, especially after he told his contributors they were ... DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #57

Again, I agree with you. Adrahil Jul 2015 #60

I love Joe...BHO, JB, and HRC are my three favorite politicians./nt DemocratSinceBirth Jul 2015 #71

Good numbers. hrmjustin Jul 2015 #68

Why doesn't the GOP want Hillary in the general election? Because her numbers are too high Thinkingabout Jul 2015 #69

How sweet it is! ismnotwasm Jul 2015 #74

If the primary goal is to keep the WH "blue".. DCBob Jul 2015 #79

Sweet. sheshe2 Jul 2015 #95

WE NEED A BETTER CANDIDATE!!1 Metric System Jul 2015 #97

B-but "hearts and minds!1" B-b-but BlacksforBernie has "EXPLODED" to 181 members!1one! Number23 Jul 2015 #100

KICK! Cha Jul 2015 #102

Great numbers! lunamagica Jul 2015 #103

K and R McCamy Taylor Jul 2015 #104