A glance of the data leads me to believe that young white males were oversampled in the survey. The 18-45 crowd was the only age group to support the abortion bill, even the 65+ folks opposed it, and the young'uns tended to be go more for Republicans than the 46-64 crowd. Demographically the 18-45 crowd should have more minorities but the numbers don't show it. That may explain some, but not all, of the inconsistencies.
I'm also scratching my head at how Wendy Davis' percent went UP in a three way race vs head-to-head. Greg's numbers dropped some as you would expect when a tea-party candidate is running but I don't know how Wendy ends up picking up more total votes when 3 candidates are running.
It said 500 Texas voters were sampled. I'd be curious if they did any corrections in the raw numbers.
Look, obviously Wendy is the underdog, I've never seen a poll where she has led Abbott, but I'd take that 15 point lead with a grain of salt. The election is a long ways away, look at 1990. Like I mentioned earlier it's going to take a lot of time and money from the national Dems and other groups to get her numbers up there, which can happen, and dear old Greg is not the most likable person - I can see her stomping him in a debate. That could get her within striking distance if she had a laser-focused campaign, together with a massive ground game. Obamacare/Medicaid is probably going to be the top issue, abortion a distant third or fourth.
I'm not sure the Dems want to spend the money on this race if they see better opportunities elsewhere, but she is a good candidate (the best I think) which voters so far only know her for one thing. Once she gets more exposure I think she'll improve her numbers.
= new reply since forum marked as read
