These are some results I find to be the most unlikely:
Abbott holds a 5 point lead among Hispanic voters (Not. Gonna. Happen.) Stranger, his favorability ratings among Hispanics are underwater while Davis' are just above among Hispanics. He is also is garnering 28% of the "very liberal" voters while getting just 9% from the "somewhat liberal" group and 18% of the "moderate" group. Again highly unlikely, though I hope the moderate number holds up. The trend is even apparent in the lt. gov.'s race, though much less pronounced.
Young voters: Abbott holds a suspicious 51-32 lead among voters 18-45 in a 2-way race and a 51-35 lead over Davis in a 3-way with Medina. Voters aged 46-64 are supporting Abbott by 4 points in a 2-way race and are tied at 40-40 in a 3-way contest. The older votes are the strongest R, no surprise there. The young voter results defy the laws of politics. Maybe TX is special, but I really doubt it's THAT special. It's especially puzzling when you look at the crosstabs with the lt. gov. race, where both candidates are tied among the 18-45 crowd.
The abortion law: the biggest group to oppose it are moderates, ahead of somewhat liberal and even further ahead of the very liberal!
It also shows the areas where the Dems needs to improve: among Hispanics (which I think will happen) and among males, where she is doing terribly if this poll is to be taken at face value. They also need to get the Hispanic turnout way higher than the 19% in this poll, which may well happen if the Dems pump enough money into the campaign to let voters know where Abbott stands on issues of immigration and healthcare, especially Medicaid (hint: they're to the right of Perry).
Those issues plus the voter ID law (which will hopefully be blocked by next year) are driving issues Davis and other Dems need to hit hard on early and often and it's gonna take a LOT of cash and groundwork. The abortion law should only be brought up by how extreme it is, people have long since made up their minds on the issue and only seem swayed by drastic circumstances.
If Obamacare is successful next fall Davis and Dems around the country stand a much better chance of getting elected, that goes without saying. Where Davis and Co. can really stick it to the Repubs are among poorer voters of all races who make too much to qualify for Medicaid but not enough to get an insurance subsidy.
The disinformation out there about the ACA is huge, just a few days ago I was talking to a lady who was terribly worried she would have to pay $180/mo or more for insurance while she's only earning about $1400/mo in a part-time job. I did the numbers and she should be able to get a decent policy for just over $50/mo but had no clue. I wrote down some websites she could go to and look at the numbers and she was amazingly grateful. If this demographic figures out they're getting screwed over by the Rs before next fall it could spell real trouble for them. The (very real) website horror stories should be forgotten by then as well as the more conjured up sensationalist headlines and people should know how much they're benefitting or losing out.
= new reply since forum marked as read
