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2016 Postmortem

Samantha

(9,314 posts)

23. I saw what happened during that time frame and my opinion is Florida was fickle

Reply to geek tragedy (Reply #12)

Wed Nov 21, 2012, 11:08 PM

Nov 2012

Depending on what issue rose to the forefront of the moment, Florida tilted left, then right, then left again at the last moment. Silver changed his prediction twice because Florida changed its mind twice. One of the prominent indicators of that was the heightened anger of the African-American community at the never-ending efforts to block their votes. Ironically enough, it might possibly have been that outrage of the voters in Florida that drove up the numbers to unexpected turnout rates. That turnout was a significant factor in the tipping of Florida from red to blue. And Silver saw it both times.

Sam

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Highlight:

Obama Cracks A Nate Silver Joke At Turkey Pardon [View all] DonViejo Nov 2012 OP

He correctly picked 50 of 50 states on Nov. 6th oswaldactedalone Nov 2012 #1

49 and a half Rstrstx Nov 2012 #3

Here's some irony though, from October 19: geek tragedy Nov 2012 #5

And, the Winner Goes to Cha Nov 2012 #7

He had Florida blue on November 5th Samantha Nov 2012 #6

Looks like he had it about 50/50 geek tragedy Nov 2012 #8

What makes you say that? It was light blue when I posted that (n/t) Samantha Nov 2012 #9

Here is another November 5 post I made - Nate gave Obama a 52.5% chance of winning FL Samantha Nov 2012 #11

True, but Florida did not go from being a "decisive" lead for Romney geek tragedy Nov 2012 #12

Those are the results the model produced. Nate deserves credit for 50/50. Hyper_Eye Nov 2012 #17

Silver's modeling is much better than his strategic analysis. nt geek tragedy Nov 2012 #19

I saw what happened during that time frame and my opinion is Florida was fickle Samantha Nov 2012 #23

Thanks for your link, Samantha.. nm Cha Nov 2012 #10

Actually, he had Florida about 50.2 O vs. 49.8 R mzmolly Nov 2012 #14

It's still up at 538 Rstrstx Nov 2012 #21

The blog is confusing as the final forecast, rounded the numbers. However, mzmolly Nov 2012 #22

Ah Rstrstx Nov 2012 #27

SWOOOON!!! Caroline-Vivienne Nov 2012 #2

Nate's books about to fly off the shelf Thrill Nov 2012 #4

I suggest browsing through the book before buying ........It's heavy reading and in fine print. meti57b Nov 2012 #13

So the other turkey will be executed? nt Honeycombe8 Nov 2012 #15

Gosh, I hope not. freshwest Nov 2012 #25

I've since heard they were BOTH pardoned. I'd thought only one of them was. Phew.nt Honeycombe8 Nov 2012 #26

I wonder what the real numbers felix_numinous Nov 2012 #16

Post removed Post removed Nov 2012 #18

If the President Obama mentioned me in a positive way, I'd be pretty thrilled, I must admit. Good Dark n Stormy Knight Nov 2012 #20

It was pretty funny davidpdx Nov 2012 #24