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2016 Postmortem

Rstrstx

(1,406 posts)

12. Second row, Bayesian drift

Reply to kevin881 (Reply #8)

Tue Sep 27, 2016, 01:23 AM

Sep 2016

It went from 79% yesterday to 87% today, and that was this afternoon before the debate. He only uses poll data so things like tonight's debate will take a few days at least to show up. A model that uses market prediction, instant polling or pundit analysis would be the only type that could show an uptick tonight, and I believe PEC doesn't use any of those.

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Highlight:

***breaking***Sam Wang has HRC at 87%! [View all] triron Sep 2016 OP

NEW polls? elleng Sep 2016 #1

Probability triron Sep 2016 #3

Based on what? elleng Sep 2016 #4

Then we have to get voters to give her the congress she deserves! ffr Sep 2016 #2

Right, but ain't gonna happen. elleng Sep 2016 #5

After the damage Don the Con did tonight? You can't be serious. ffr Sep 2016 #7

I am serious. elleng Sep 2016 #10

Let's hope and work toward proving that wrong. ffr Sep 2016 #11

inclined to agree but Loki Liesmith Sep 2016 #9

ipsos reuters polls Loki Liesmith Sep 2016 #6

I don't see that in the link... n/t kevin881 Sep 2016 #8

Second row, Bayesian drift Rstrstx Sep 2016 #12